How to bet on the Texans in 2025: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets, picks for Houston

The Houston Texans made a massive leap in 2023 with then-rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans taking the league by storm, winning both the AFC South and a playoff game. Expectations were high for the Texans in 2024, and while it was an overall successful season with another AFC South title and another playoff victory, it felt like the Texans were stagnant and Stroud took a bit of a step back. The offensive regression resulted in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, once considered a rising star and future head coach, getting fired this offseason.

The offensive line didn't do Stroud and Co. any favors as the offense failed to counter opposing defenses. Now, the Texans will have a new offensive coordinator in Nick Caley as well as multiple changes on the O-line with Laremy Tunsil traded to the Commanders and guard Kenyon Green sent to Philadelphia, giving Houston essentially an entirely new offensive line for 2025.

Stroud's pass-catching unit will look different, too. Nico Collins will remain the unquestioned WR1, but Stefon Diggs is out and Christian Kirk is in. The team also drafted Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel on Day 2 of the draft. And don't forget Tank Dell, who is aiming to return from a serious leg injury suffered late in the year. 

The Texans open with tough games against the Rams and Buccaneers, so it's important for Stroud and his receivers to click out of the gate. That would go a long way in the Texans being the team to beat in the AFC South for the third straight season.

We're going to take a quick look at the Texans' 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we'll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Texans in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 Houston Texans season review

• Regular season: 10-7 (AFC South champs)
• Playoffs: Lost Divisional Round at Chiefs 23-14
• Stroud/Ryans: 3rd QB/HC duo all-time with playoff win in each of first two seasons
• 0-6 all-time in divisional round (only NFL team to never reach Conference Championship game)
• First in the NFL in opponent completion percentage (58.8) and second in INTs (19) last season

2025 Houston Texans offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 Houston Texans futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 C.J. Stroud props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Texans

The Texans have a safe floor of nine or 10 wins under Ryans, who's 20-14 over his first two seasons. It also helps that the AFC South isn't exactly the most loaded division in the NFL. The market is slightly fading the Texans reaching 10 wins for the third year in a row, however, as their win total is set at 9.5 across all of the top sportsbooks. Moving on from an offensive coordinator who orchestrated good if not great offenses after two years is tough, and Caley comes to Houston after the Rams were 10th in net yards per pass attempt in 2024, which was much better than the Texans finishing 26th in that category. Houston's receiving depth is also much improved even with Diggs now in New England and he and Dell missed 12 combined games last season.

Additionally, you can make the case that Houston's defense is underrated after finishing 14th in scoring in 2024. That unit didn't allow more than 209 net passing yards in any of their first nine games last year despite facing teams like the Bills, Packers and Vikings in that stretch, in particular allowing Josh Allen to complete just nine passes in a Houston win. The defense surrendered just 212 yards in total in the Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs. Just one new starter joins the fold in veteran safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and with a pair of elite edge rushers up front, it's not out of the question for this unit to make a run at being the best in football.

Reasons to fade the Texans

Offensive line was already an issue after last year, and the team traded its two bets linemen in Tunsil and Green, adding more question marks to an already questionable unit. None of the projected five starters are standout players, and unless multiple starters take a big leap forward this year, that unit will likely be a limited ceiling of being just average. Caley is an intriguing hire and comes over from the Sean McVay tree in Los Angeles, but before 2024, he was only a tight ends coach, so it's unclear if how much juice he can squeeze out of this offense. 

The AFC South has been one of the league's worst divisions in recent years, so it will be more difficult for the Texans to rack up divisional wins. Houston's three divisional opponents combined for only 15 wins last year, but those three have a combined win total of 20.5 for 2025, and the Titans have a new quarterback in Cam Ward while Travis Hunter is now in Jacksonville. The Texans were a dead-even team in point differential last year, which works out to 8.5 projected wins based on their scoring, and with tougher competition, it's not too difficult for this team to slip to the 7-8 win range.

How to bet the Texans in 2025

• Under 9.5 wins -120 (BetMGM)
• C.J. Stroud Under 3,800.5 passing yards (FanDuel)

The perception is that the Texans play in an easy division and should have a lot of bankable wins, but the competition should be tougher from the Jaguars and Titans at least this year, and with Houston playing a first-place schedule plus the NFC West and AFC West, there are relatively few pushovers for them this year. The talent on the roster combined with an excellent head coach could still prevail, but I have a hard time seeing them improve from their 10-win seasons of the last two years in these circumstances and think it's likelier than the implied odds on -120 that they start slow offensively and fall short of the mark.

I also like backing Stroud's Under on his passing yards total of 3,8-00.5 at FanDuel, which would mean he has to average no more than 225 yards per game if he plays all 17. I expect that will be a difficult task behind this offensive line, and even if he does manage it, he had just 219.2 yards per game last year to fall short of this mark. Now, if the performance he had as a rookie comes back, he could miss three games and potentially beat this number, but I think that's a tall task with how the team is set up around Stroud while playing with a new OC who has just one year of experience beyond coaching a position group.