How to bet on the Patriots in 2025: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets, picks for New England

After nearly two decades of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick leading the franchise to six Super Bowl titles, the New England Patriots have made the playoffs just once since Brady left after 2019. Belichick left after 2023, and after the team going 4-13 last year under Jerod Mayo, the franchise will be on its third head coach in three years as former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel is now leading the charge. 

The addition of Vrabel to the mix is certainly intriguing, but all eyes will be on second-year quarterback Drake Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in last year's draft. Unlike Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, the No. 1 and 2 picks, Maye didn't start right away. He wound up playing 13 games with 15 passing touchdowns to 10 interceptions. Maye didn't play particularly great, but the Patriots hardly had the top-end talent you'd hope for when building around a new franchise quarterback. 

New England worked hard this offseason to build around Maye, adding Stefon Diggs and Mack Hollins in free agency before drafting Kyle Williams in the third round. The team also has new starters at offensive tackle, including No. 4 overall pick Will Campbell, and a new starting center. The defense also will look different with four new additions making over $10 million annually, including $104 million man Milton Williams up front. Tasked with making it all work is former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel, who went 54-45 in seven years as head coach of the Titans while often exceeding expectations on a week-to-week and even year-to-year basis.

We're going to take a quick look at the Patriots' 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we'll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Patriots in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 New England Patriots season review

• Regular season: 4-13 (Last, AFC East)
• Playoffs: Missed
• Longest playoff drought (three seasons) since seven-year drought from 1987-93
• Back-to-back seasons with 13+ losses for first time in franchise history
• Drake Maye: Fifth-highest completion percentage by rookie all-time (min. 200 attempts)
  

2025 New England Patriots offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 New England Patriots futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Drake Maye props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Patriots

This time last year, the Patriots were entering their first year without Belichick. Two years ago, Mac Jones was still the starting quarterback. They enter 2025 with an intriguing QB-HC duo in Maye and Vrabel, the latter of whom was a playoff regular in Tennessee despite starting QBs like Marcus Mariota, Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis.

The Patriots have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this year, facing the Raiders, Titans and Giants as well as the NFC North and the rest of the AFC East, which should give Vrabel the opportunity to show he still has the magic to pull out close games when needed and outcoach more limited teams on the schedule. It doesn't take much imagination to picture a 10-win season and playoff berth in Vrabel's first season if the new-look roster can gel quickly.

Reasons to fade the Patriots

There's a lot of reason for optimism with the new additions but Diggs is coming off an ACL injury and counting on a third-round pick to make a big impact right away is not reasonable. Hollins is a veteran but isn't a true No. 2 receiver. The offensive line still hasn't played a live game together and will need some time to gel, while Maye also has to figure out how to adjust to his new personnel. Vrabel also needs time to transform the culture in the locker room.

The schedule isn't tough but there are still some spots for trouble for the Patriots. New England has to go on the road against the Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and Baltimore. There's an early three-game road trip against Buffalo, New Orleans and Tennessee which could cause problems if the Patriots don't come out of the gate hot. With win totals sitting at 7.5 and 8.5, it seems like there's a lot of optimism surrounding a team that still has plenty of question marks.

How to bet the Patriots in 2025

• Under 8.5 wins +100 (DraftKings)
• Drake Maye Over 500.5 rushing yards (Caesars)

I'm willing to fade the aggressive projections for the Patriots despite their schedule and back Under for their win total. Josh McDaniels has had a lot of success as an offensive coordinator, but of course much of that was tied to Tom Brady. In seven seasons where McDaniels was a head coach or offensive coordinator, either after Brady's departure from New England or when he was with other teams, his offenses finished 19th or worse in points scored five times. Getting this Patriots offense even to that mid-range level with the supporting cast around Maye will be a tall task, so the defense is going to need even more improvement to push this team to a winning record. I see more downside for this team than upside, and if that downside comes to pass, I'll be more interested in playing their optimistic outcomes in 2026 as a post-hype sleeper.

Where Maye should continue to have success is on the ground, especially if the new-look offensive line is still allowing pressure and leaving Maye to scramble rather than force the ball to a set of pass-catchers that is still likely without a reliable No. 1 option. Maye only attempted 338 of the Patriots' 529 pass attempts last year, which works out to around 64% of the workload. He rushed for 421 yards alongside that workload, which is already right at the line Caesars is offering. If he's on the field more this year, he should get Over this total unless McDaniels tries to remove his rushing ability from the offense, which would be counterintuitive to the success the market is expecting from this team.