Cowboys got fleeced! Why draft compensation in Micah Parsons blockbuster just doesn't add up for Dallas

"I don't regret anything at all. … I'm excited, we got what we wanted." -- Jerry Jones talking to the media on Thursday night, hours after the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons to the Packers.

In return, Dallas received two first-round picks and defensive lineman Kenny Clark, and the knee-jerk reaction is pretty much what you might imagine: Packers fans were ecstatic, Cowboys fans were frustrated bordering on apoplectic, and the media -- me included -- felt confident in saying that "America's Team" got fleeced.  

And that's easy to proclaim in the moment, when the news is fresh, the emotions are raw and the future feels infinitely more uncertain for the Cowboys with Parsons no longer a part of it.  But what does history tell us about teams that net two first-rounders in a trade? How does it work out in the short term? How about the long term? 

For some perspective: since 2019, seven veteran players (including Parsons) have been traded for two first-round picks, and the results are mixed.

*-Traded for three first-round picks

(The Watson and Wilson trades speak for themselves. Stafford went on to win a Super Bowl in his first season in L.A.. Adams' promising career was derailed by a myriad of injuries. Ramsey was a two-time All-Pro with the Rams before getting dealt to Miami and Tunsil has made five Pro Bowls in his six seasons in Houston.)

More specifically for our purposes here: it's reasonable to assume that these picks, one in the 2026 draft, the other in 2027, will be between 20th and 32nd overall. Think about it this way: Jordan Love became the Packers starter in 2023, and in the two drafts since, Green Bay has selected 25th and 23rd. This team feels at least 1-2 wins better with Parsons, which means they're probably closer to selecting 32nd than 20th.

First, the positive -- since 2000, there have been some late Round 1 steals, especially on the defensive side of the ball: Ed Reed, Vince Wilfork, Clay Matthews, and more recently, Cam Heyward, Cam Jordan and T.J. Watt were all selected between picks 21-30.

The cold-water-to-the-face reality check: unfortunately, these players are the exception -- they averaged seven All-Pro selections and had an Approximate Value (AV) of 122.7. By comparison, the other first-rounders taken between picks 21-32 from this same time period -- 2000-2017 -- averaged 0.8 All-Pro selections and an AV of 37.

A PFF article from the spring on historical hit rates in the draft reveals what you might expect anecdotally: as you move your way through the draft, your chances of "hitting" on a player decreases; you're more likely to find a really good player between, say, picks 1-10 than you are between picks 20-32, and the drop-off from one pick to the next is the most pronounced over the first two days of the draft before the curve flattens on Day 3.

Micah Parsons should have been a Cowboys lifer. Instead, he's Jerry and Stephen Jones' warning shot

Garrett Podell

Other articles found similar results. This isn't great news for the Cowboys or their fans for a lot of reasons, including that Parsons is one of two players (along with Reggie White) in the history of the league with 12-plus sacks in each of his first four seasons. The 26-year-old also has the highest pressure percentage (20.3%) among all pass rushers the last four seasons, ahead of Trey Hendrickson, Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett. And perhaps most troubling is this stat from CBS Sports research: over the last four seasons, the Cowboys defensive EPA per play with Parsons on the field was the best in the NFL. When Parsons wasn't on the field? The Dallas defense ranks dead last.

It gets worse. According to the Sportsline model, Dallas' chances of making the playoffs have dropped from 27.5% to 17.8%.

But let's take a look at the 2026 draft class, a group that is deep at edge rusher. I posed some scenarios to former Titans GM Ran Carthon, who also happens to be my co-host on the "With the First Pick" podcast. I asked Ran if it seemed remotely realistic for the Cowboys to package their two first-round picks in the '26 draft (which we'll assume are around picks No. 15 and No. 27) to move up for, say, Clemson defensive lineman Peter Woods or Auburn edge rusher Keldric Faulk.

"No matter how you view Keldric Faulk, he's not Micah Parsons, right?" Ran began. "And with Peter Woods, yeah, you're going to add a dynamic interior player, but even Peter Woods is not Micah Parsons. Because we're talking about Peter Woods as a talented dude and we feel like he's got top five talent, but Peter Woods still has to transition to the National Football League and produce. Micah Parsons has already done it."

And while I said this upcoming class is deep at edge rusher, Ran pointed out that in our most recent preseason mock draft, there were only two edge rushers taken before the Cowboys were hypothetically on the clock at No. 15 -- Faulk and Clemson's T.J. Parker. Compounding matters is that there isn't an Adbul Carter in this class, at least not yet, so even if you wanted to trade up, there's no reason to do it because the value isn't there.

The Cowboys also have that extra 2027 first-rounder, and that will invariably lead to some galaxy brain conversations that involve the words "Arch" and "Manning." I laid out this "theory" to Ran and his response was the correct one: "See, now we're playing Fantasy football."

Ran and I have talked frequently in recent weeks about Jerry Jones, the showman, the businessman and the owner/GM. No one person has grown professional football more than Jones in the last 35 years. And his idea of success may be different than that of the average Cowboys fan because while the team is now reportedly worth $10 billion, it also hasn't been to an NFC Championship game since 1995. 

And that, in part, is why Cowboys fans are equal parts exasperated and increasingly apathetic; yes, Jones knows how to promote the team but the larger questions about his ability to run it remain, no matter how rosy the picture he paints. 

"We have just decided it was in the best interest of our team … and we can win, in our minds, more than had we gone the other route and signed [Parsons]," Jones said Thursday night.

I'm not sure who believes this, including Jones. But for the sake of argument, let's assume the Cowboys strike gold with the two Packers picks -- not once-in-a-generation, Hall of Fame gold, like I talked about above with Reed & Co., but let's look back at the 2024 class where picks No. 22 and 23 were Quinyon Mitchell and Brian Thomas Jr..

Both guys balled out as rookies, wildly outperforming everyone's expectations. But here's the thing: if the Cowboys land two players of that caliber (but, let's assume, at positions of need) with late first-round picks in the next two drafts, it won't make up for the loss of Parsons. Maybe it gets you 60% of the way there, maybe even 75%. 

And then what? Your two best players, Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, are two years older, two years down the road on their current deals, two years further away from that last NFC title game appearance, and Jones is two years removed from trying to convince us that "it was in the best interest" of the organization. 

It seems fitting to close things where they began, with Jones' words: "I don't regret anything at all. … I'm excited, we got what we wanted." 

That reminds me of another quote, from author author Robert Louis Stevenson: "Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences."