Can Chiefs get back to being high-powered? How Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and others will fare

Welcome to "NFL Thoughts," a wide-ranging, in-depth look at some of the top storylines of the 2025 season. The Chiefs are, at this point, an annual top storyline. They've been to five of the last six Super Bowls and won three of them. They've done it with high-flying offenses, lockdown defenses and, when they're at their best, both. But last year, they were clearly far from their best. The fact that they even made the Super Bowl was a testament to their ability to find a way to win. The fact that they struggled so much offensively, though, shows changes need to be made.

Think of the worst offenses in the NFL last year. The Bears spent another year wandering the offensive wilderness with Caleb Williams constantly under siege, overwhelmed seemingly every week and let down by a poor system. The Patriots had arguably the worst offensive personnel in the NFL. The Giants, Browns and Raiders rode the quarterback carousel again.

And then, somehow less explosive than all of them, were the Chiefs. That's right. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Andy Reid and co. were the least explosive offense in the entire league.

The Bears, Patriots, Giants, Browns and Raiders were awful. The Chiefs were ... not. They went 15-2. They made the Super Bowl. They crushed the hopes and dreams of many AFC contenders once again.

They did it because Mahomes is so much more than the big-play guy he was when he entered the league. He is now the NFL's best game manager, too. And no, it's not a disparaging term. If you can't be explosive, you'd better be efficient. The Chiefs had the NFL's fifth-best offensive success rate -- their rate of gaining at least 50% of the yards needed for a first down on first and second down and gain a first down on third or fourth down -- behind only the Lions, Buccaneers, Ravens and Commanders. That's much better company.

Ranking 2025 AFC contenders by tiers: Here's who could challenge Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chiefs in AFC

Garrett Podell

But it's clear that the Chiefs have to get back to producing some big plays. The margins were simply too small last year. Kansas City, after all, was a mere 15th in scoring offense.

Since 2000, there have been 60 teams to have an explosive play rate under 8.5%. Those 60 teams went a combined 328-638-2, a disastrous .340 winning percentage. The Chiefs, just to repeat, went 15-2. Before that, the last time a team won double-digit games with a sub-8.5% explosive play rate was 2006, an entirely different era of football.

Long story short, the 2024 Chiefs offense defied every trend we've seen in the modern NFL. Mahomes knows that can't last.

"We got guys everywhere that can make plays happen, and so we wanna still be surgical and we wanna still be great on third down, in the red zone, stuff like that, but we wanna bring the big play back, and we think we got the guys to do it." Mahomes said at the team's kickoff luncheon last week. "And so it's my job to give these guys chances to go out there and make big plays."

Is a new left tackle the fix?

The Chiefs' most crucial player on offense is Josh Simmons, the rookie left tackle out of Ohio State who was generally regarded as a top-15 talent but fell to 32nd due to injury issues. But Simmons quickly won the left tackle job and has impressed. Taking away too much from the preseason can be foolhardy, but Simmons earned an 84.1 pass blocking grade from PFF, which was fifth among all tackles who took at least 25 pass-blocking snaps, and he did not allow a single pressure.

Kansas City needs Simmons to indeed be ready right away, because last year's left tackle carousel was a mess. Last year, 53 players played at least 700 snaps at tackle. Wanya Morris ranked 49th among those 53 in PFF's pass blocking grade. The Chiefs also tried then-rookie Kingsley Suamataia -- who was worse than Morris -- and even veteran D.J. Humphries before kicking Joe Thuney, naturally a guard, out to left tackle. He performed admirably, but then Kansas City had issues at the left guard spot he vacated.

Long story short, the left tackle play was rough, and it impacted Mahomes' playing style. He didn't trust his pockets, and to be fair, he had reasons not to trust them. Reid, in turn, couldn't trust the line to execute, and his play calling reflected that. Simmons can change all of that.

Are the wide receivers in place?

Rashee Rice really played in three games last year (he got injured moments into Week 4). Despite that, Rice tied for second among Chiefs wide receiver with three catches of 25+ yards. He was also third in yards after catch. Again, he played basically three games.

Rice is suspended for the first six games of 2025, which hurts the Chiefs' offense. He is dynamic with the ball in his hands, a physical, fast weapon who could take the quick, short passes Kansas City relied on and turned them into something much bigger. His 7.8 yards after catch per reception ranked seventh among all wide receivers with at least 20 catches last year. His return will allow Kansas City to go full throttle

With him out, Xavier Worthy becomes a potential focal point -- at least when it comes to producing big plays. How he produces those big plays, though, will be especially interesting. His record-setting speed didn't translate to deep-passing success last year. Worthy had 10 targets on passes at least 30 yards downfield last year. He caught one.

The tape shows they weren't all his fault. Mahomes had some misses -- some caused by protection breakdowns -- but Worthy also missed two big plays because he couldn't keep himself inbounds. Plays like this have to be converted. Worthy isn't a guy who will go up and win a ton of physical catches. He had five drops, and he only caught 60% of his targets despite his average target being under 10 yards downfield.

Kansas City used him as a sort of gadget player, and at times they had success. Maybe a big Super Bowl performance amid an otherwise awful night for his team propels him forward. There are small changes Worthy can make to become a much more effective player in 2025, changes that can come with a full NFL offseason.

The rest of the Chiefs' wideouts are an odd group, but not one without intrigue. Hollywood Brown could be a key piece early, but he has struggled to stay healthy. Tyquan Thornton is another major speedster who flamed out with the Patriots but impressed in the preseason and caught a 58-yard bomb from Mahomes. Remember the "bring the big play back" quote?

JuJu Smith-Schuster returns, and fourth-round pick Jalen Royals -- yet another speedster -- arrives.

Can Travis Kelce regain (at least some of) his form?

Travis Kelce has lost weight, something he owes to less traveling with Taylor Swift. (They got engaged, in case you live under a rock.) These "he's in great shape" storylines happen every offseason, but if Kelce can be even a bit closer to his former self, that'd be massive. Last season, his 8.5 yards per reception were more than 2 yards fewer than his previous career low. His 3.8 average yards after catch were also by far a career worst.

Kelce still caught 97 passes, an impressive total but also the exact problem that plagued the Chiefs: So much of their passing game relied on a player who wasn't explosive at all. In fact, he was one of only two players to catch at least 90 passes and average under 9 yards per catch. The other was Wan'Dale Robinson of the Giants. Again, not the company a Super Bowl contender should be keeping.

Kelce is 35. He has lost a step -- or several steps -- from his peak as one of the most productive tight ends ever. And that's OK. Kelce can still be a big part of this offense, and a reliable part at that. If he's even a half-step better than last year, that's a big help.

Can the running game be better with Isiah Pacheco's return?

Leroy Hoard, a former shot-yardage specialist running back, is credited with saying, "Coach, if you need 1 yard, I'll get you 3 yards. If you need 5 yards, I'll get you 3 yards."

That was the Chiefs' rushing attack last year. Kansas City was fifth in rushing success rate and 30th in explosive rush rate. Sound familiar?

Much of that was Kareem Hunt's doing. His 3.6 yards per carry ranked 43rd out of 44 qualifying running backs last year. He was one of the league's worst rushers when it comes to yards over expected, which indicates the blocking was better than the result.

Can Isiah Pacheco change that? The hard-charging former seventh-round pick broke his leg last year and missed much of the season, but he had a 7.3% explosive rushing rate in 2023. Hunt was at 2.2% last year. Pacheco should be a significant boost there.

We'll also mention Brashard Smith here. Relying on seventh-round rookies isn't a path to success, but the wide-receiver-turned-running-back could be an effective pass catcher in small doses. Think of Jerick McKinnon, but likely in a smaller role, at least to start.

Can Mahomes rediscover some of his gunslinging ways?

Mahomes still holds the keys here. If the protection is indeed better and the players are indeed better, it's on him to make it work, as he said at that luncheon.

Mahomes' air yards per attempt and percent of deep passes were the lowest of his career. His average time to throw was his lowest since 2019. Remember all that magic he produced extending plays, his narrow escapes that turned into huge gains? They were almost non-existent in 2024.

Over the past two seasons, Mahomes has the worst TD-INT ratio (9-17) on passes 10+ yards downfield, per CBS Sports Research's Doug Clawson.

The daring Mahomes hasn't been there nearly as often. When it's been there, too often it's been off target. He's been a bit less comfortable in pockets, a bit more affected by pressure. He had the highest negative play rate of his career last year and was sacked 17% of the dropbacks on which he was pressured, by far the worst rate of his career.

That's in part because opponents got higher-quality pressures, something Kansas City believes it has addressed. It's also in part because the offensive weapons, both receiving and rushing, didn't have reliable big play threats. Kansas City also believes it has addressed that. Whether it has -- and whether Mahomes can take advantage -- will be fascinating.

Previous 'NFL Thoughts' stories

1. Projecting 2024 rookie QB class in 2025: Can Caleb Williams bounce back, Jayden Daniels continue his rise?
2. Can 49ers rebound after disappointing 2024? How Christian McCaffrey's return, remade defense impact outlook
3. Cowboys season outlook: Dak Prescott is healthy, but is that enough for Dallas to rebound from forgettable 2024?
4. Have Lions wasted best Super Bowl chance? How Detroit can still break through despite losing both coordinators
5. Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud enter crucial third year with plenty to prove, loads of questions
6. Can Chargers, Broncos continue to ascend after breakthrough 2024 seasons?
7. Who can beat the Chiefs? Is it finally time for Bills, Ravens or Bengals to end Patrick Mahomes' AFC reign?
8. New NFL overtime rules coming to regular season: How will teams handle them? How should they?