Bills vs. Texans: Predictions, picks, best bets for Week 12's Thursday Night Football matchup

Thursday Night Football's matchup between the Bills and Texans might not feature two elite quarterbacks, because C.J. Stroud is out for a third straight week due to his presence in the concussion protocol. But the stakes aren't any lower -- it's the start of Week 12 and both of these teams are battling for playoff position. Houston is rolling out Davis Mills and hoping to win their third game in a row with a backup quarterback starting. The Texans are currently the first team out on the AFC side of the bracket. 

The Bills find themselves in relatively unfamiliar territory, staring way up at the Patriots in the division. Buffalo isn't dead in the AFC East, but has very little wiggle room, especially with New England being gifted the one of the softest schedules in league history.

We've got a low total for this game, and it's a Thursday night featuring two teams that would love to run the ball a bunch, so be cautious with your prop bets in this one -- offense might be at a premium. 

That being said, we can still find some spots that are juicy enough for us to attack. Let's build on last week's 3-1 record and try to hit some touchdown props.

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If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season underway. Also make sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Bills versus Texans game.

Top straight bet (spread, money line or total)

Texans +5.5

This line has come down despite the news C.J. Stroud is not going to play for Houston on Thursday night. That's pretty surprising, especially since Josh Allen decided to go nuclear last week and combine for six total touchdowns in what eventually became a blowout win over the Buccaneers. 

Houston is a different beast, however. I can't believe I wrote that about a Davis Mills-led team, but it's true. The Houston defense is a top-five unit in the NFL and I wouldn't expect the Texans to hemorrhage points at home in primetime in what is pretty close to a must-win game for them.

The Texans sit at 5-5 and badly need a victory here to stay on pace with the Jaguars for the final wild-card spot, especially with the Chiefs lurking. 

Working in their favor is a Bills defense that's been just mediocre this season, thanks in large part to injuries. 

Buffalo's only held three teams -- the Jets, Saints and Panthers -- under 20 points this year. If the Texans can prevent Buffalo from topping 25 points here (Buffalo's team total is 24.5 juiced to the Under, so it's reasonable), they've got a very good chance at staying within this number. 

You can bet on the Texans to cover the spread at BetMGM, where new users get up to $1,500 back in bonus bets if their first bet doesn't win:

Bills vs. Texans player props

Nico Collins Over 5.5 receptions (-122)

Mills is an obvious downgrade from Stroud, but we can still roll with Collins here and feel pretty comfortable about it. Despite the Texans trotting out a backup quarterback the last two weeks, Collins is still getting fed. 

Over Houston's last two games, Collins has 25 targets and has totaled 16 catches and 128 yards with one touchdown on those looks. His ATD number is plus money and I certainly considered that, but it feels like this is a safer bet, largely because the Bills should be able to do something on offense, forcing the Texans to throw more than DeMeco Ryans might like. 

We're also getting a discount from the rest of the market on this price at FanDuel. 

Collins is an absolute alpha and Mills isn't flinching when it comes to looking his way. When the Texans need to move the ball through the air, it's headed Collins' way more often than not. 

Khalil Shakir longest reception Over 17.5 yards (-114)

Buffalo had a funky wide receiver rotation last week, with no one playing more than 54% of the offensive snaps and Shakir and Tyrell Shavers tied for the lead in that department. 

Gabe Davis and Josh Palmer both saw more than 40% of the snaps as well and it's possible the Bills continue to mix and match skill guys while funneling the offense through Josh Allen and James Cook. 

Given that and Shakir's lack of production, I'm a little nervy about this number, even though FanDuel has a much lower longest reception total by two yards than the rest of the market.

Shakir has the dad strength narrative going in this one, it's primetime, he's hit this number in three of his last four games and we don't need a ton of volume here. He also profiles as a receiver who isn't a great matchup for this stingy Texans defense because of where and how he works on the field.  

Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 receptions (+110)

My initial look was to Jayden Higgins here, but his prop is set at 2.5 receptions and is seriously juiced up everywhere. I really like it as a parlay piece if you're so inclined, but instead let's roll with Schultz and a significantly bigger number at a much better plus price. 

The Texans passing offense is highly-concentrated over the last two games. Mills has 86(!) passing attempts in that span, and 59 of those attempts have gone to Collins, Schultz and Higgins. 

Schultz, specifically, has 20 targets in his last two games, which makes sense. When a backup quarterback is under center, they're usually pretty likely to feed their safety blanket over the middle and Schultz is just that. If Houston falls behind at all, I'd expect Schultz to get peppered with targets and he should still be a key factor in just about every third-down playcall. 

TNF anytime touchdown scorer props

Josh Allen -115

Great news: SportsLine subscribers who turned on alerts for my bets would have gotten at a much cheaper price when it was widely available at -115 or better. Even better news: after steaming down to -130 in some spots, this number is now back to -115 on Thursday morning, at least at FanDuel. 

Grab it now, because it probably dips again before kickoff. The reason Allen's price plunged -- and it's still bettable to -125 in my opinion -- is because of what Allen did last year and then last week. 

In 2024, Allen propelled himself to the MVP award with superhuman play down the stretch, specifically by using his legs to produce touchdowns. From Week 10 through Week 17 (which included the Bills' Week 12 bye, so seven games), Allen scored an absurd nine rushing touchdowns. 

Last week, in Week 11 of 2025, he found the end zone three times with his legs. The Bills are fighting an uphill battle to win the AFC East and are jockeying for playoff position. 

Allen is going to activate his legs again in all likelihood and will put his body on the line when the Bills get into the red zone. It wouldn't be stunning if we saw him rip off a streak of touchdowns akin to what he did last year once again. Against a robust defense like Houston, he'll be extremely aggressive. 

Woody Marks +130 (FanDuel)

Before Week 11, Ryans remarked there are "no rookies" anymore, meaning the Texans are in crunch time and everyone involved in the Texans offense needed to step up with Houston missing its starting quarterback. This applied to Marks, who has become the primary back for this Texans offense. Marks has 32 carries the last two weeks, with one of those games coming in a serious negative gamescript.

It's possible the Texans find themselves trailing here if Josh Allen goes Superman, but the Houston defense should keep them in this game early on, which means lots of Marks. 

And when the Texans get down to the goal line, I'd expect Marks to get fed as well. The Bills rush defense isn't great: they've given up 12 (!) rushing touchdowns over their last six games, including three to Sean Tucker and Baker Mayfield last week. 

The Bills also rank 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.1) and have been even worse (5.4) over the last three weeks.