Best-case scenario for Jets, Giants and other Super Bowl long shots entering 2025 NFL season

The season is about to begin and, while fans are the eternal optimists, each team begins the campaign with different expectations. Not every team has a starting quarterback who inspires confidence or a well-rounded roster that could challenge for a Super Bowl. Las Vegas has been handicapping the upcoming season since the prior concluded in February and, through Super Bowl odds, expressed how it perceives each team. 

A year ago, there were seven teams with +10000 odds or worse to win the Super Bowl; the same figure for the 2025 season. Among those seven teams, however, were the Commanders and Broncos. Both of whom rode rookie quarterbacks to the postseason a year ago. Could either of the two teams who used a first-round pick on a quarterback accomplish the same feat? 

Here is the best possible outcome for several teams least likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook):   

Carolina Panthers (+10000)

Fans got a glimpse of the best case scenario last season. In Weeks 1-11, Carolina ranked 28th in total offensive EPA (expected points added), according to TruMedia. From Weeks 12-18, the team ranked 8th in the same metric. Quarterback Bryce Young had been a catalyst for that improvement. 

There is a lot of room for improvement within the defense but, in an ideal world, Young will forge relationships with Tetairoa McMillan, Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker and the young tight ends, which would, in theory, set them up to make a true run at the NFC South crown in 2026. Young will probably never be a top-10 quarterback consistently, but having the conviction to give him a contract extension would be an ideal outcome to this season. 

Las Vegas Raiders (+12500)

The Raiders are an interesting team because they seem to be operating on a different timeline than the roster suggests. Despite the defensive deficiencies and the offensive line questions, Las Vegas traded for 34-year-old quarterback Geno Smith and drafted a running back No. 6 overall. 

They should be improved this season, but may need to secure a wild card berth to justify the aggressiveness. To say the Raiders would be happy with a 4-13 season and once again be in a position to draft No. 6 overall is probably not an accurate assessment unless it positions them to draft a franchise quarterback. 

Tennessee Titans (+17500)

Tennessee hopes it has the quarterback of the future in tow, so win-loss record is irrelevant for now. The ideal outcome for the Titans this coming season is witnessing Cameron Ward's confidence grow within Brian Callahan's offense while identifying a few skill players who can contribute.

If that were to occur, then coming away with another top 10 overall draft pick that can be used to add a game changer is not the worst outcome. The possibility does exist that Ward is able to push the franchise to contend in a wide-open AFC South. 

New York Giants (+20000)

New York also used a first-round pick on the quarterback position. Russell Wilson will open the regular season as the team's starter, but it would come as a surprise if Jaxson Dart were not installed with multiple games remaining. Dart won people over during the preseason, but the positivity must continue in the regular season. Already on thin ice, coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen need the team to be competitive to warrant more time. Otherwise, Dart will be going into Year 2 with new voices in power and that has never been a good cycle for a good quarterback.

The hope is that Abdul Carter is the difference maker he had been billed as during the pre-draft process. If both of those scenarios were to occur, then there would be reason for optimism in the Big Apple. 

New York Jets (+22500)

New York is arguably the most difficult situation to peg. Justin Fields has talent and is still 26 years old. For the sake of the timeline and instilling the culture that Aaron Glenn desires, Fields being the solution at the position is the ideal outcome. However, that feels list wishcasting. Pittsburgh has already tried to rehabilitate Chicago's one-time franchise quarterback and it did not work. 

Glenn has spent all offseason attempting to operate the Jets franchise in a way that mirrors his former employer, but Fields is not Jared Goff. They are not going to be able to cultivate the necessary accuracy from Fields. 

Under those circumstances, the best outcome for New York would be finding itself in a position to draft early next April, so they can take another bite at the quarterback apple. If one were to guess, Jets fans probably do not feel the same way. 

Cleveland Browns (+40000)

Cleveland is undergoing a soft reset this year. The Browns drafted two rookies as part of the 2025 NFL Draft, but Sanders has not shown the pocket presence to be a starting quarterback in the league. Dillon Gabriel would be an outlier in terms of height (5-foot-11) at the position. 

If Joe Flacco can stay healthy, there is a chance that he could lead the team to a wild card berth, but that does little for the future. The Browns have been stockpiling draft assets as if they intend to make a play for a quarterback in 2026, so being in a position to secure that player is the ideal outcome. Either rookie quarterback being a productive player seems more far-fetched. 

As a bonus, Jacksonville falling short of expectations and positioning Cleveland with a top 10 overall pick plays into the best scenario as well.

New Orleans Saints (+40000)

New Orleans invested a top 40 overall pick in quarterback Tyler Shough to compete with former fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler, who ended up winning the starting job. Even outside of the quarterback position, there are issues with the roster. It is hard to envision them receiving a wild card berth and even more unbelievable to think the divisional crown is attainable. 

Complicating these circumstances is the fact I was personally lower on Shough than the NFL. The 2026 NFL Draft quarterback class appears to be stronger at the top and Shough is already 25 years old. Although they may be hoping Shough is the future, returning to the well and drafting another quarterback may be the best decision for the future of the franchise. It just makes the decision to expend a top 50 overall selection on a quarterback this year more confusing.