AFC West odds: Chargers emerge as favorites to end Chiefs' streak, but does Kansas City have betting value?
Los Angeles is already two games ahead of its division rival and owns a head-to-head victory
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6 min read
The Chargers couldn't have scripted a better start to their season. In Week 1, they went down to Brazil and beat the Chiefs, 27-21, their first win over Kansas City since 2021. Justin Herbert outdueled Patrick Mahomes, and the defense looked strong. Then in Week 2, they went to Las Vegas and beat the Raiders, 20-9, the defense picking off Geno Smith three times and Herbert continuing to thrive.
They're not only 2-0, but they're 2-0 in division play as well. They're the first team to win division games in each of the first two weeks since the 2020 Bills, and they've done both away from their home stadium (though they were technically the "home" team in Brazil.)
Plus, while the Chargers have come out of the gate strong, the other AFC West teams have faltered. The Chiefs followed up their loss to the Chargers with a loss to the Eagles. The Broncos are 1-1 after scraping by the Titans and losing to the Colts. The Raiders are 1-1 as well.
Oddsmakers and bettors have noticed. The Chargers are the favorites to win the AFC West, something they haven't done since 2009. Here are the division odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Odds to Win AFC West | |
|---|---|
Chargers | +100 |
Chiefs | +250 |
Broncos | +310 |
Raiders | +1400 |
So, are the Chargers the smart pick here? Or are there opportunities to take advantage of the Chiefs' and Broncos' odds? Here are the factors to consider.
Why to bet on the Chargers to win the AFC West
Justin Herbert is being unleashed
Herbert is playing MVP-level football through two weeks. In fact, he's tied with Jordan Love for the third-shortest odds to win the award (+850) behind Josh Allen (+310) and Lamar Jackson (+340).
Perhaps more importantly, the Chargers are giving him the opportunity to play MVP-level football. Herbert is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt -- he has never been above 7.7 for a season -- and 9.6 air yards per attempt, also on pace for a career high.
Plus, the Chargers are throwing on early downs far more often: 58% this year compared to 51% last year. They haven't been afraid to put their foot on the gas when leading and let Herbert carry them across the finish line, either. It has resulted in a magnificent start. He has four touchdowns on throws 10-plus yards downfield, tied with Jackson for the league lead. Herbert had 12 such touchdown passes all of last year. He's on pace to blow that number away.
Herbert also has a versatile receiving group, and its members are filling their roles well. Quentin Johnston has been a big-play threat, Ladd McConkey can line up all over the place and get open and Herbert's chemistry with Keenan Allen looked like it never skipped a beat, even with Allen playing for the Bears last year. Herbert is targeting his wide receivers at an 82% clip, the highest rate in the NFL.
Defense looks legit
Good luck trying to test the Chargers' passing defense. Los Angeles is allowing just 5.3 yards per attempt -- second in the NFL only behind the Packers -- and has allowed just one touchdown pass compared to three interceptions. Opponents have a 61.9 passer rating against the Chargers, the worst in the league.
The key here is a healthy Derwin James, whom Jim Harbaugh called "the best safety I've ever seen in the history of the National Football League." It certainly looked like it Monday night. Watch the clip below, when he frees up Khalil Mack for a sack.
khalil mack, of course
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 16, 2025
📺 @espn pic.twitter.com/pDyzJZAcmp
And then watch this one, when he runs with wide receiver Jakobi Meyers and deflects the ball, which leads to an interception.
biggg time, D!!!
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 16, 2025
📺 @espn pic.twitter.com/DqIxUsU4uJ
He's just a special, special athlete. Add in the criminally underrated Daiyan Henley, who is absolutely flying around at linebacker, and that's a very strong spine of the defense. The Chargers also got somewhat good news when it turned out Mack's elbow injury will cost him only a few weeks.
Schedule advantages over Chiefs
It's still very early, but the difference between a second-place schedule and a first-place one is becoming apparent. The Chargers' AFC East opponent, for example, is the Dolphins. The Chiefs will face the Bills. The Chargers also face the Steelers for their AFC North opponent; the Chiefs have to play the Ravens. Again, it's very early, but the Chargers have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL per Tankathon.
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Why to bet the Chiefs (or Broncos) to win the AFC West
The Chiefs have won 10 straight AFC West titles, one short of tying the longest streak ever (11 straight by the Patriots from 2009-19). Kansas City isn't going to panic after an 0-2 start, even if there are significant worries.
Mahomes is the team's leading rusher. Chiefs running backs are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. The receiving corps is decimated with injuries (Xavier Worthy, Jalen Royals) and a suspension (Rashee Rice).
And yet ... they're the Chiefs. They were a Travis Kelce end zone drop away from potentially beating the Eagles. They have a potential "get-right" game against the Giants this weekend and face the Jaguars two weeks later. They get Rice back from suspension by mid-October, and potentially Worthy back from his shoulder injury around that time or beforehand, too.
How big of a deal is Rice? Despite playing essentially three games (he got injured early in the fourth) last season, Rice tied for second among Chiefs wide receivers with three catches of 25-plus yards. He was also third in yards after catch. His presence transforms Kansas City's offense and allows every other player to fall into place: Worthy as a gadget player and deep threat, Kelce as a secondary or tertiary option, Hollywood Brown as a speedy intermediate and deep threat.
Plus, the defense has quietly been very good considering the two very good opponents it has faced. Kansas City is 13th in yards per play allowed, seventh in yards per rush allowed and 10th in sack rate.
There's also the matter of the Broncos, who are a missed field goal and/or a boneheaded special teams penalty from being 2-0. Bo Nix has been a bit too mistake-prone for Sean Payton's liking, but he also started slow last year before Payton's tinkering and his generally improved play led to a strong finish. It would be unwise to count them out, and a win over the Chargers this weekend would completely reshape the AFC West.
Who to bet to win the AFC West
The Chiefs at +250 are very enticing and the way I would lean at the current moment. There's simply too much proof of concept for me to go against them. While the 0-2 record is alarming, it's not necessarily a huge surprise. The Chargers were a relative toss-up, and they were underdogs against the Eagles.
Plus, there are several factors working in Kansas City's favor. The Chiefs still get to play the Raiders twice. They still get to face the Chargers in Kansas City. Rice is coming back soon. And they haven't been that far away against two of the league's best teams. The Chargers haven't been able to run the ball effectively, and the Mack injury, while not season-ending, is significant.
This early in the season, I'm taking the thing I can rely on, especially at the plus money being offered. The quest for the Chiefs' 11th straight AFC West title won't be easy -- and it has only gotten harder since the season began -- but Kansas City has proved up for the challenge before.
