Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions
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The NFL's 2025 playoff picture is beginning to form.

In the NFC, there are clear-cut teams that are out of the hunt -- the New York Giants (2-11) are now joined by the New Orleans Saints (2-10) and the Arizona Cardinals (3-9) as officially eliminated from playoff contention -- but there's also a congested upper level of the conference that could see its pecking order flip -- like a shaken-up snow globe -- on a weekly basis. The NFC has a new No. 1 seed entering Week 14 in the Chicago Bears (9-3), which marks the latest into a season the Bears have held at least a share of the best record in the conference since the end of 2006 season. That's when they finished as the NFC's top seed with a 13-3 record and reached the Super Bowl. However, Chicago's position is precarious because with a loss at the Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) on Sunday and a Seattle Seahawks win on Sunday against the struggling, 4-8 Atlanta Falcons, the Bears could tumble down to the No. 7 seed. 

In the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams and the Seahawks sit atop their division with identical 9-3 records, and Los Angeles currently wears the crown thanks to a head-to-head victory in Week 11. The top three teams in the NFC North -- the Chicago Bears (9-3), the Green Bay Packers (8-3-1) and the Detroit Lions (7-4) -- separated by the narrowest of margins. In fact, the 2025 season is the latest into a year in which five divisions all have a lead under one game. The NFC East, AFC East and AFC West are the only three that aren't currently positioned neck-and-neck. 

Seven teams will represent the NFC in the postseason, with the final three spots going to wild cards. Which franchises will break free from the pack to grab the chance to play football into mid-January? Which hopefuls are too far gone to catch up 13 weeks into the season? Here is a ranking of the six teams considered to be still alive in the wild card chase, plus all of those teams' projected end-of-season records.

Division leaders

  1. Chicago Bears (9-3, NFC North)
  2. Los Angeles Rams (9-3, NFC West)
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-4, NFC East)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5, NFC South)

Unofficially out of it

Officially eliminated from playoff contention

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL futures at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.

Wild card contenders

6. Carolina Panthers (7-6)

  • Odds to win NFC South: +450
  • Odds to make playoffs: +390
  • CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 15.6%

The Panthers have been an unpredictable roller coaster ride in 2025, and in Week 13, they were on the up with the biggest upset victory of the week: a 31-28 home win over the then-NFC No. 1 seed Los Angeles Rams as a 10-point underdog. How unlikely was how they won? 

Well, quarterback Bryce Young threw two of his three touchdown passes on fourth down: a 33-yarder to wide receiver Jalen Coker and a 43-yarder to wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Young has thrown for three touchdowns or more and no interceptions twice in the last three games, something he did just once prior to Week 11. 

Carolina will recharge on their bye this week before ramping up to face the 9-3 Seahawks and the NFC South-leading 7-5 Buccaneers twice after playing the eliminated Saints in New Orleans in Week 15. The road ahead is tough for the Panthers, but they do control their own destiny in terms of their potential path to win the NFC South. 

Projected final record: 8-9

5. Detroit Lions (7-5)

  • Odds to win NFC North: +1000
  • Odds to make playoffs: +134
  • CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 370.8%

The Lions were able to survive their uneven play with an overtime win against the New York Giants in Week 12, but that didn't work against the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, a game they lost 31-24. They have now alternated wins and losses across their last eight games. 

The Lions' schedule is one of the 10 toughest remaining in the league, as their opponents have a combined .575 winning percentage, giving Detroit the league's seventh toughest remaining slate. Games against the red-hot Cowboys (on a three game winning streak), Rams, Steelers and the one-seed Bears should be very educational as to how Detroit's 2025 season will turn out. This week's "Thursday Night Football" showdown with Dallas is an unofficial playoff elimination game of sorts. With a loss, Detroit's chances to make the playoffs drop to 19% according to CBS' SportsLine model.  

Projected final record: 10-7

4. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1)

  • Odds to win NFC East: +650
  • Odds to make playoffs: +265
  • CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 24.5%

The Cowboys offense is near unstoppable at the moment, averaging the second-most points per game at 29.3. Quarterback Dak Prescott (3,261 yards passing, second-best in the NFL), running back Javonte Williams (955 yards rushing, sixth-best in the NFL) and wide receiver George Pickens (1,142 yards receiving, second-best in the NFL) are all producing like top five players at their respective positions. Dallas is actually the only team in the league this season to have a player in the top five of the NFL in passing, rushing and receiving. 

Dallas' defense for the season entering Week 14 is allowing 28.5 points per game, the second most in the NFL. However, when zooming in from Week 11 to now when All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, veteran linebacker Logan Wilson, explosive linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and third-round rookie cornerback Shavon Revel all entered the lineup, that number drops to 21.7 points per game allowed. That ranks as middle of the pack at 16th in this span. Dallas' run defense ranks as the second-best in football since Week 11, allowing just 69.7 rushing yards per game. 

If Dallas can upset the Lions in Detroit on Thursday, the Cowboys start thinking about the playoffs. After Detroit, the Cowboys have games remaining against the 3-9 Commanders and the 2-11 Giants in addition to the quarterback-less, 4-8 Minnesota Vikings. The Chargers (8-4) don't look as scary with quarterback Justin Herbert now banged up after having surgery on his left, non-throwing hand. If Dallas can win on Thursday, their playoff chances will jump to 42% according to Sportsline. 

Projected final record: 11-5-1

3. San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

  • Odds to win NFC West: +500
  • Odds to make playoffs: -1100
  • CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 88.9%

Running back Christian McCaffrey is producing at a level near his 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year season, with more than 800 yards rushing (849) and 800 yards receiving (806). He leads the league in both scrimmage yards (1,655) and touches (322) this season. His All-Pro-caliber production is helping paper over quarterback Brock Purdy's inefficient 9-7 touchdown to interception ratio.

It's also remarkable that the 49ers have been a top 10 scoring defense (20.7 points per game, eighth in the NFL) despite losing both All-Pro edge rusher Nick Bosa and All-Pro inside linebacker Fred Warner to season-ending injuries. That's why they have an NFL-worst 16 team sacks this season. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is a miracle worker in the Bay Area, and that should be enough for the 49ers to return to the playoffs in 2025. That's especially true considering the 49ers have the Titans on their schedule after their Week 14 bye. Beating them in Week 14 would give them 10 wins, and then they would likely just have to win one of their three remaining games at the Indianapolis Colts, home against the Chicago Bears and home against the Seattle Seahawks. 

Projected final record: 12-5

2. Seattle Seahawks (9-3)

  • Odds to win NFC West: +210
  • Odds to make playoffs: -2200
  • CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 93.8%

The Seattle Seahawks joined the ranks of wild card squads entering Week 12 after their narrow 21-19 road defeat at the Los Angeles Rams, which ended on a 61-yard missed field goal. However, the Seahawks will face the Rams again in Week 16. Depending on how that game and the next few weeks go, Seattle could certainly regain first place in the NFC West, especially after Los Angeles was upset as a 10-point favorite at the Carolina Panthers. 

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold, however, is trending in the wrong direction. He's had no passing touchdowns in two of the last three games, and he is now tied with Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa for the most turnovers in the NFL this season. After seeing the success Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores had against him despite his offense being shut out, it's fair to have concerns about how Darnold will look in the playoffs. In the NFC wild card round a year ago with Minnesota, Darnold saw ghosts and was sacked a playoff single-game record nine times. 

Projected final record: 13-4

1. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1)

  • Odds to win NFC North: -135
  • Odds to make playoffs: -950
  • CBS' SportsLine model's playoff percentage: 90.1%

The Packers are currently 8-3-1, and they are starting to hit their stride, currently on a three-game winning streak after their Thanksgiving Day victory at the Detroit Lions (31-24). They have one of the best defenses in football, allowing just 18.8 points per game -- the sixth fewest in the NFL. 

All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons is making a difference for Green Bay with his 67 quarterback pressures, tied for the third-most in the league this season, to go along with 12.5 sacks, the third most in the NFL. Those 12.5 sacks are the second-most by a player in their first 12 games with a team in the 21st Century, trailing just edge rusher Shaquil Barrett's 14.5 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2019. Pro Bowl edge rusher Rashan Gary is on pace for a career-high in sacks with 7.5 already, tied for the 12th most in the NFL, and both linebacker Quay Walker and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper are thriving off of the added attention Parsons attracts. Oh, and Green Bay can stop the run, allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game (98.3) this season 

Green Bay's offense holding up its end of the bargain has been a key driver to the team's three-game winning streak, and it's a unit that now ranks among the 10 best in the league, averaging 24.5 points per game, 10th in the NFL this season). Quarterback Jordan Love is performing at a top five level in 2025 with 0.20 expected points added (EPA) per play, the third-best in the NFL this season and a 104.3 passer rating, the fifth-best in the league this year. That's honestly quite impressive considering the following

  • Injuries along the offensive line to center Elgton Jenkins have hurt, as well as regression by left tackle Rasheed Walker. 
  • That's hampered Pro Bowl running back Josh Jacobs' efficiency, as he is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, the second lowest of his career. However, he is still finding the end zone: his 11 rushing touchdowns are tied for the second most in the NFL this season.
  • The offensive line issues are a factor that Love has been able to mitigate in the passing: the Packers' 38.8% quarterback pressure rate ranks 22nd in the league.
  • Having a below-average pass-blocking unit and being without both tight end Tucker Kraft (torn ACL) and wide receiver Jayden Reed (foot injury) has led to head coach Matt LaFleur calling a conservative game plan this season: Green Bay is calling running plays on 51.3% of their first- and second-down plays this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. LaFleur is also calling play-action passes at just a 17.8% rate, 18th in the league. 

Mixing it up with more passes and more play-action on early downs to make better use of Love's arm and the speed of wide receivers like Christian Watson and first-round rookie Matthew Golden could create even more offensive production. Reed returning from injury -- his 21-day practice window has been open -- would also be significant. If that happens, Green Bay could easily climb up the standings, and they could take hold of first place in the NFC North as early as this week with a win over the Bears on Sunday. The talent is there, even with the offensive injury issues. 

Projected final record: 13-3-1