2025 NFL MVP odds: Why Baker Mayfield provides great value, plus four other long-shot options

When it's all said and done, Baker Mayfield will own one of the wildest career arcs in modern NFL history. Drafted first overall in 2018 to be the Browns' savior, Mayfield fulfilled that role somewhat, leading Cleveland to the playoffs in 2020 -- its first postseason appearance since 2002 -- and even getting a win once there, the franchise's first since 1994. All looked to be going to plan.

Then came a poor, injury-plagued 2021 season, and Mayfield got run out of town in favor of Deshaun Watson. Mayfield landed in Carolina, where he started the season with a 1-4 record, got benched, re-promoted to starter and then cut after a 13-3 loss to the Ravens.

Then it was onto Los Angeles, where he led a "Thursday Night Football" miracle comeback two days after joining the Rams. He played out the string that season, and then it was unclear where his career would go. Talented backup? Journeyman vet? Bridge starter?

The Buccaneers thought it would be that third option when they signed him on a one-year deal in 2023 to be Tom Brady's's successor. What they've gotten is so, so much more. Mayfield led the Buccaneers to the playoffs in 2023, earning a Pro Bowl nod and finishing third in Comeback Player of the Year voting. After signing an extension, he was arguably even better in 2024, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns while making the Pro Bowl and finishing 11th in MVP voting.

And now we're here. Mayfield is a legitimate early season MVP candidate -- and perhaps he should even be viewed as more than that. Josh Allen is the current favorite at +135, followed by Patrick Mahomes at +470, according to FanDuel. Then Mayfield has the third-shortest odds at +950.

Even those odds feel too long, though, especially after Mayfield went 29 of 33 for 379 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-35 win at the Seahawks. He is playing at an extremely high level so far.

More than just the numbers, though, Mayfield fits the narrative of an MVP.

Want MVP moments? The Buccaneers are the first team in NFL history to win four of their first five games on a game-winning score in the final minute of regulation, according to CBS Sports research, and Mayfield has been a huge part of that.

• Week 1: Go-ahead 25-yard touchdown pass to Emeka Egbuka with 59 seconds left
• Week 2: 15-yard scramble on fourth-and-10 as part of game-winning drive
• Week 3: 48 passing yards on game-winning drive
• Week 5: Game-tying touchdown pass to Sterling Shepard with 11 seconds left

Want wins? Well, Mayfield has four of them, all via game-winning drives. In order to be the MVP, your team has to be really good. SportsLine projects the Buccaneers to win 11.4 games, currently the third-highest projection behind the Bills and the Lions. Tampa Bay already has a 95% chance to win the NFC South.

Want perceived "value?" Voters that the strength of a quarterback's supporting cast plays a role when they voted Allen over Lamar Jackson for MVP last year, even though Jackson made the All-Pro First Team. Mayfield was without star left tackle Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin to start the year. They have since returned, but the Buccaneers have been without Mike Evans since Week 3 and lost two starting offensive linemen (Luke Goedeke and Cody Mauch) for the season. They did not have Bucky Irving in Week 5. Mayfield just keeps going.

Want a year to do it? This looks like it could be the one. Jackson is hurt, and the Ravens are 1-4. Mahomes and the Chiefs are 2-3. Justin Herbert has cooled off after a red-hot start, done in by an injury-ravaged offensive line. Allen is always going to be there, but even he didn't play his best game in a "Sunday Night Football" loss to the Patriots.

So, at +950 currently, Mayfield is undervalued. Here are four players who may have better chances than their odds suggest:

Dak Prescott: +2200

Prescott is playing incredibly well right now. Only Daniel Jones has a higher expected points added per play than Prescott's 0.27, and Prescott is also top three in passing yards and touchdowns. He's done it without several key offensive linemen and, for essentially the past three weeks, CeeDee Lamb.

The Cowboys need him to keep doing it, too. Dallas is 2-2-1 despite ranking dead last in total defense. Prescott was phenomenal in a 40-40 Week 4 tie against the Packers and their vaunted defense led by Micah Parsons. Prescott threw for 361 yards in a 40-37 Week 2 win over the Giants. He threw four touchdown passes and no interceptions last week. If the Cowboys' defense is so bad that they can't make the playoffs, Prescott's candidacy will look a lot like Joe Burrow's's last year. But if Prescott is good enough to overcome his own team's poor defense and make the postseason, he could have a strong claim.

Daniel Jones: +2700

Yes, really. Jones has comparable -- and, at times, even better -- stats to Prescott and been absolutely outstanding in some key areas that Jones struggled with earlier in his career: when pressured and on deep balls. He has the NFL's lowest sack (2.6%) and negative play (4.9%) rates. He's also converting nearly 54% of his third-down passes for first downs, second behind Brock Purdy.

Coincidentally, Jones's candidacy is somewhat reminiscent of Purdy's in 2023: extremely efficient and statistically excellent. Purdy finished fourth in MVP voting, in part because of the advantages that he gained from his supporting cast: Christian McCaffrey (who finished third in MVP voting), Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Trent Williams and coach Kyle Shanahan. Jones has Jonathan Taylor, Quenton Nelson and an excellent offensive mind in coach Shane Steichen. Beyond that, it's not nearly as star-studded.

Jonathan Taylor and Puka Nacua: +10,000

Want some really long shots? The last non-quarterback to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, when he ran for 2,097 yards. Last year, when Saquon Barkley finished with 2,000, he finished third but didn't receive a single first-place vote. In fact, since the NFL changed to down-ballot MVP voting in 2022, there hasn't been a single first-place vote for a non-quarterback.

Maybe Taylor or Nacua could change that. Taylor currently leads the NFL in rushing yards (480) and rushing touchdowns (six). He has also become a major factor in the passing game with 16 catches for 133 yards. For comparison's sake, he only had 18 catches for 136 yards all of last season.

Taylor is on pace for 2,084 yards from scrimmage, which on its own would be a huge statement. If the Colts are among the best teams in the NFL and voters value their best player, could Taylor earn some votes? It's similar to the McCaffrey/Purdy situation of 2023, but right now there isn't a Jackson-esque season standing in their way.

Nacua leads the NFL in receptions (52) and receiving yards (588), and the 52 catches through five games are most in NFL history. Could he put together a receiving Triple Crown?

The types of seasons that Nacua and Taylor are having have historically been "relegated" to Offensive Player of the Year. But if the Rams truly emerge as one of the NFL's best, Nacua is the best player on said offense -- though Matthew Stafford at +1400 could prove to be a better bet -- and there's no supernova quarterback season. Maybe he reverses that trend, too.