When news broke on June 29 that Draymond Green had declined his $27.7 million player option to become, technically, a free agent, all signs pointed to LeBron James joining the Warriors. The idea was to have Green accept a new multi-year contract for less annual money with the first-year savings going into the James fund.
The dots were pretty easy to connect. James has been a Warriors target for years. They made a play for him at the 2024 deadline. In a 2022 interview, James named Stephen Curry as the current player he would most like to partner with. Green opting out was the key to making it happen. And when it was announced less than 24 hours later that James would not be returning to the Lakers, it seemed like a done deal.
Now here we are on Friday with no deal done, and with every hour that passes, it feels increasingly unlikely that James will actually end up in the Bay. ESPN's Anthony Slater has, in fact, reported that the Warriors "have been given no indication they're any type of front-runner" to land James. And on Thursday, James' agent, Rich Paul, went on his podcast and outlined the pros and cons of 10 potential destinations for James on a whiteboard.
Make of this what you will, but the "Steph & Dray" Warriors are on the outskirts of Paul's outline here:
The first team Paul discussed was the 76ers, noting that "everything changed" when they made the trade for Jaylen Brown on Wednesday night. It makes sense. A day earlier, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said that the way for any of these LeBron suitors to get his attention was to make a splash move to improve their roster.
Forget a splash move, the Warriors haven't made any move for a player they didn't already have; they've only re-signed Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and De'Anthony Melton. They drafted Yaxel Lendeborg with the 11th pick, but a rookie isn't going to move the needle for James.
There was wind blowing in the direction of the Warriors making a trade for Anthony Davis to lure James, but that was either never real or isn't real anymore -- at least if we're to believe Marc Stein's report that the Warriors don't want to trade Jimmy Butler, as Butler's contract would be the only viable swap for Davis' money.
At this point, it's hard to put too much stock in what anyone is saying or why they're saying it. But for whatever it's worth, the Warriors were the seventh of the 10 teams Paul talked about on his podcast. If that sounds like an afterthought to you, you're not alone.
Again, this makes sense if James' top priority is signing with the team that gives him the best chance of winning his fifth championship. The Warriors are not that. They would be fun and potentially quite competitive if everyone could stay healthy, but that's a big "if" and there are much surer bets on the board.
The fact is, James can go to basically whatever team he wants if he'll take minimum money. And being that money isn't -- if you believe the reporting -- his main concern at this point, even the $15 million mid-level exception the Warriors could offer him (if they can get off Moses Moody's contract) is no longer much of a competitive advantage, if any at all.
What will the Warriors do if their LeBron dream doesn't come true?
And so here we are on July 3 with the Warriors, who put all their offseason eggs in the LeBron James basket, staring at the same roster they ended last season with while everyone else has gobbled up the bulk of available players. If nothing materializes, Slater says the Warriors' front office is "content if they have to run it back with mostly the same roster."
In the big picture, that's probably the right move if the James pursuit falls through. Trading for Davis and then giving him the extension he wants would probably be irresponsible given his age and injury history. This probably isn't a true championship-contending team -- no matter what move(s) they make.
But Warriors fans don't want to hear about probablys. They're watching the sun set on the Curry era while the front office sits on its hands. In today's Western Conference, if you're not getting better, you're getting worse. The presence of the Spurs and Thunder is forcing everyone with any real competitive ambition to take real risks.
That's how LaMelo Ball ends up in Minnesota. And Ja Morant ends up in Portland. And the Lakers end up giving the Jazz two first-round picks and two swaps for the right to pay Walker Kessler $130 million. That's what going for it looks like. The Warriors have made it pretty clear they are not going to go for it.
Short of a big name falling into their laps, like when they got Butler for Andrew Wiggins and a pick, they're going to make the margin moves to conservatively support Curry without compromising whatever future they hope to have when he's gone.
Again, that's not what fans want to hear. Not after they had to sit through the failed, stubborn experiments of Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman. Not while team owner Joe Lacob, in their eyes, has been trying to prove he can build a post-Curry winner at the expense of maximizing current Curry (who is still a championship 1A player) since that 2022 title Curry all but won by accident.
Indeed, there are fair criticisms to be levied against the Warriors' complacency during the waning stages of Curry's career. But the bottom line is it's not easy to build a championship roster just because you have one great player, especially not in the NBA's current financial climate, and even more if you're not willing to take serious risks.
That's why Golden State is even pursuing James in the first place. Because at this stage of his career, there's no risk. He doesn't need max money anymore. He isn't going to cost future draft capital. If it were to happen under these circumstances, it would be a dream.
For a minute, it looked like it was going to come true. And maybe it still will. But if not, the Warriors are going to have a hard time salvaging this summer, and fans are going to have a hard time forgiving them for another swing and miss as Curry moves one year closer to the end without a realistic shot at the championship that he is still capable of delivering.
