NBA Draft Lottery luck rankings: Who is due for a top pick? Heat, Kings among most historically unlucky teams
As we saw with the Mavericks last year, Sunday's lottery could change the fortunes of several NBA franchises
We like to pretend that luck isn't the single biggest determinant of outcomes in the NBA. The team that beats four injured opponents in the postseason is forever remembered as a champion. The team that generates better shots still loses if those shots do not go through the hoop. Basketball is chaotic and random. It's what makes the NBA Draft lottery so fun.
It is league-sanctioned chaos, the one point on the NBA calendar that everyone agrees is based on luck rather than merit. Of all the mechanisms the NBA could have chosen to allocate its best incoming prospects, it chose ping-pong balls and envelopes. It very much falls into the "so crazy it just might be sane" category of corporate schemes. There's no truly fair way to determine who gets the best player in a given draft, so we throw our hands up and pray to the lottery gods.
Some teams frequently see their prayers answered. Others never do. Over four decades of lotteries, some teams have benefitted far more from the system than others. On Sunday, 14 more teams will take their spin on the lottery wheel. Well, technically, 15 will, but put the Los Angeles Clippers aside for a moment as their participation is conditional upon the placement of the Indiana Pacers. They cannot get one of the four picks determined by the actual lottery drawing. They get a pick if Indiana falls out of that range.
So with Sunday quickly approaching, it's worth exploring: who is due for a top pick? Who has been historically lucky and unlucky when it comes to the lottery? The following table tracks several notable lottery "stats," which we'll explain below.
| Team | Net slots gained | "Move Ups" | "Move Downs" | Net movements | Average gain/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-11 | 3 | 10 | -7 | -0.52 | |
-10 | 3 | 9 | -6 | -0.25 | |
-9 | 0 | 7 | -7 | -0.9 | |
-5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | -0.30 | |
-5 | 1 | 4 | -3 | -0.38 | |
-2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | -0.13 | |
-2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | -0.13 | |
0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | |
+2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | +0.22 | |
+1 | 3 | 7 | -4 | +0.06 | |
+1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | +0.08 | |
+1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | +0.08 | |
+6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | +0.38 | |
+12 | 5 | 9 | -4 | +0.44 |
What are we measuring here?
The table above measures three things:
- Net draft slots gained or lost. Essentially, how much better were a team's draft picks thanks to the lottery system compared to where a team would have drafted in a pure, reverse-standings order? Look at it this way: if the second-worst team in the NBA gets the No. 1 pick, that team has gained one net draft slot. If the 10th-worst team moves up to No. 1, that team has gained nine net draft slots. The column measures how many slots have been gained or lost over the entire existence of the lottery system.
- How many times has a team moved up or down? Very straightforward. We want to know whether teams are frequently picking higher than they would without the lottery, or if they're picking lower. Note: most teams are negative in this metric. Remember, for most of the lottery's history, only three teams could move up. Currently, four teams can do so. However, everybody but the best non-playoff team can move down. Last year, for instance, three teams moved up, three stayed in the proper slot, and eight moved down.
- On average, how much is each team gaining or losing through the existence of the lottery system? One outlier outcome means a lot more to a team that's barely in the lottery than it does for a team that's in the lottery most of the time.
Notably, we aren't measuring luck as it relates to which players were actually available, since the picks were determined by the lottery. You'd rather get the No. 1 pick in 2003, when LeBron James arrived, than in 2013, when the top pick was Anthony Bennett. There's simply no fair way to quantify luck as it relates to specific prospects.
So who deserves the No. 1 pick?
We have three category leaders here who all have an argument as the most "deserving" winner of the No. 1 overall pick.
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have lost the most net draft slots, 11, through the lottery system. They fare poorly in the other metrics as well, with the second-most net movements (-7) and the second-worst average lottery outcome (losing more than half of a slot per lottery appearance). In more recent terms, the Wizards moved down four slots last season. In a reverse-standings order system, they would have picked No. 2 and landed Dylan Harper. Instead, they came in at No. 6 and took Tre Johnson.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have the worst net movement total, moving down eight more times than they've moved up. However, I'm not overly sympathetic for two reasons. First, the Kings are in the lottery all the time. Sunday is their 28th play at the lottery when you include picks they've acquired through trades (but not picks they've lost through trades). It makes sense that they'd move down more than anyone since they're in the lottery more than anyone. Second, they haven't moved down through their own pick since 2014. Considering they've moved up twice in that span while only making the playoffs once, it's not as though lottery luck has been what has held them back.
Miami Heat
The Heat, unlike the Kings, are almost never in the lottery. Sunday will be their 11th appearance. They've never moved up, never picked No. 1 and have moved down seven times. They lose almost a full slot per lottery appearance, far more than anyone else we measured. The highest pick in Heat history was No. 2 in 2008, the absolute worst year to have that specific slot. The top tier, according to consensus at the time, consisted of two players: Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley. Chicago took Rose, so Miami got Beasley. Two of the next three picks were likely Hall of Famers: Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love.
Those are the category leaders. However, there are four other teams that deserve to be mentioned:
- The Golden State Warriors don't lead any single category, but they're among the five unluckiest teams we measured in all three. If you want to talk specifics, they lost one net draft slot in both 2020 and 2021, their two recent chances at truly high picks. They used their picks in those years on James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga. Move each of them up one slot, and they get Anthony Edwards and Josh Giddey instead.
- The Utah Jazz, Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies have never picked No. 1 overall. The Jazz and Pacers are such infrequent lottery participants that a top pick would be somewhat surprising. The Grizzlies are there frequently enough that their poor luck is a bit more notable, but keep in mind, they were not eligible to win the No. 1 pick in the first three lotteries they participated in as a condition of their expansion agreement with the league. However, they've picked No. 2 five times, so they've had their fair share of lottery luck. The Jazz have never even moved up with their own pick. They jumped in 2011, but with a pick acquired from the Nets.
Who's had enough luck as it is?
Fortunately, most of the teams that historically get lucky in the lottery are not participating in 2026. That's an enormous relief, considering two of last year's top three picks were plundered by the San Antonio Spurs and Philadelphia 76ers, who have been abusing the lottery system, presumably through black magic, for decades now. However, one of the lottery system's biggest winners is participating on Sunday, and it probably isn't who you'd expect.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have an utterly fascinating lottery history. They've moved down four more times than they've moved up. However, they've gained a ridiculous 12 net slots through the lottery system. Why? Because when they move up, they skip the entire line. Those four Hornets jumps have been by two, five, six and 10 slots. They aren't lucky often, but when they are, it's obscene. Notably, they are in the 14th and final slot on Sunday. No team has ever jumped from No. 14 before.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thankfully, no team has ever jumped from the No. 12 slot either. That's where the Thunder are. Putting aside what a disaster Oklahoma City getting a top choice would be for the league moving forward, this is a franchise that has already benefited far more from the lottery than most. If you count Seattle getting Kevin Durant in 2007, which I do since Oklahoma City was the primary beneficiary of that selection, the Thunder have moved up more times than they've moved down. They're the only team we measured that can say that. Now, they've actually had a fair bit of bad luck when it comes to traded picks, with the 2021 Rockets and 2025 76ers notably keeping very lightly-protected picks away from the Thunder and the Jazz ducking a recent multi-year obligation to Oklahoma City entirely. Even so, they don't deserve a jump.
Atlanta Hawks
And then there's Atlanta, whose numbers are completely out of whack because of one outlier: 2024. The Hawks jumped nine spots from No. 10 to No. 1, but it just doesn't feel that way two years out because they drafted Zaccharie Risacher. Their future would undeniably look brighter with Stephon Castle or Alex Sarr, but that was their choice. They got lucky. They just wasted that luck.
Building a draft order entirely based on who's due for luck
Pretend there are no pick protections or trades to consider here. If we had the power to select the order of the top 14 teams in the 2026 NBA Draft solely based on prior bad luck, what would the order be? Here's where I landed:
| Pick | Team |
|---|---|
1. | Miami Heat |
2. | Washington Wizards |
3. | Golden State Warriors |
4. | Utah Jazz |
5. | Sacramento Kings |
6. | Indiana Pacers |
7. | Memphis Grizzlies |
8. | Dallas Mavericks |
9. | Milwaukee Bucks |
10. | Brooklyn Nets |
11. | Chicago Bulls |
12. | Atlanta Hawks |
13. | Oklahoma City Thunder |
14. | Charlotte Hornets |
The Heat are the obvious choice for the top pick. If their luck held over a similar number of appearances as some of their peers in this year's lottery, they'd lead every category by a mile. We don't think of the Heat as unlucky because they so rarely need luck. Most of their stars are acquired as veterans, not drafted. They're barely ever in the lottery, but when they are, it usually goes badly for them.
The Wizards eke out the No. 2 slot from the Warriors thanks to their slim edges in all three categories, but they both deserve a bit of lottery luck. In a tight race, Utah edges out Sacramento for No. 5 because it appears in the lottery so much less frequently. The Kings have gotten access to plenty of high picks. They've just missed on them. The Jazz have never moved up with their own selection, so they're the worthy pick at No. 4.
The Pacers edge out the Grizzlies for the same reasons. The lottery may technically have been kinder to them by net draft slots, but they're barely ever in the lottery, and when they've been there, they've never gotten the top prize. The Grizzlies haven't either, but getting five No. 2 picks in a 21-year span is still enough to theoretically offset their many bad outcomes.
That takes us to the Mavericks. Look, I know what you're thinking. They just got Cooper Flagg! Well, to be frank, that pick wasn't karmic payback for the disastrous Luka Dončić trade; it was karmic payback for their absolutely miserable historic lottery performance. Before last year's lottery, they were at -12 net draft slots. They'd never moved up once, an interesting footnote since they were the team that most vocally pushed for the adoption of the lottery in the first place. The 10-spot jump for Flagg knocked them out of the top half of this lottery, but it doesn't erase the 40 years of bad luck that came before him.
The Bucks, the Nets and the Bulls are your garden variety lottery performers: more bad than good, but a handful of good outcomes between them. It would be no great injustice if any of them benefited from the lottery, but there are more deserving teams ahead of them. The Hawks, the Thunder and especially the Hornets have had more than enough lottery luck for the time being. They are welcome to reapply after a handful of lottery disappointments.
