More than a championship hangover: Four reasons behind Knicks' troubling 0-3 start

In the entire 80-year history of the NBA, only three champions have started their title defense with an 0-3 start the next season: The 1969 Celtics, 2011 Mavericks, and this year's Knicks, who've taken losses to the Sixers, Celtics and, on Sunday night, a Magic team that had also come in winless and was playing without Paolo Banchero. 

Last year's title was the product of a legendary postseason run, but this start has provided an opening for all the skeptics to question its sustainability. Were last year's Knicks really that good? They only won 53 regular-season games. They trailed against the Spurs in the Finals for more than 70% of the total minutes played before pulling off multiple basketball miracles. 

There was, of course, the largest comeback in Finals history (29 points in Game 4). The OG Anunoby tip-in. The Victor Wembanyama pass off his teammate's back in Game 2. The 16-point rally in the clincher. The Knicks had to overcome a double-digit deficit in every game and Jalen Brunson had to turn into a fourth-quarter folk hero -- which he did, and all credit to him and them, but again, is this a repeatable formula in a much tougher Eastern Conference than the one the Knicks navigated a year ago?

Fair or not, these are the questions this 0-3 start is giving life to. Everyone from Knicks diehards to haters to the few objective ones in between want to know, what's wrong with the Knicks? Was last year a one-year, team-of-destiny wonder, or is this just an early blip on the radar? Let's examine what's behind this 0-3 start. 

The championship-hangover theory

This is a popular one, but statistically, it holds little water. Of the 26 NBA champions this century, only the 2006-07 Miami Heat won fewer than 51 games in the season following their championship (not counting the strike- and COVID-shortened seasons), and only two -- those same Heat and the 2002-03 Lakers -- have started with a sub-.500 record through the first 20 games.

Do the math, and you'll see that defending champions are a combined 366-154 through the first 20 games of the season following their title this century. A 70% win percentage to start the following season with only one sub-51 win team lends zero credibility to the hangover theory. 

If you're thinking about a repeat, which was already unlikely (it hasn't happened since the 2018 Warriors, it's not looking good. The only team in history to start 0-3 and go on to win the championship that same season is the 1990-91 Chicago Bulls. 

That's not to say the Knicks can't do it. They defied a lot of historical odds last season, particularly in the Finals. They're going to have to figure this out realtively quickly, though, if they don't want to be digging out of seeding hole the rest of the way. This may not matter much to them as long as they're in the top six, but it should. Again, evidence does not support teams winning titles as anything less than a No. 3 seed. It's only happened two times in history with the 1969 Celtics (No. 4 seed) and 1995 Rockets (No. 6 seed). 

Knicks fans looking for an excuse will surely cite the distractions of the Karl-Anthony Towns contract debacle and maybe even the James Dolan phishing trip he sprung on his employees as reasons for the slow start. They've played two tough teams in the Sixers and Celtics, and the Magic shot uncharacteristically well from 3. But that doesn't explain New York's own shortcomings in this winless start. So let's address those.

Four reasons for Knicks' early season slump

1. New York's ice-cold shooting

I hate the make-or-miss-league crutch that everyone from coaches to analysts loves to lean on. More times than not, when you're missing shots it's because they're bad shots (either from the wrong people or the wrong spots or they are highly contested adn thus being cause by the defense), and when you're making them it's because they're good shots. That's about process -- ball movement, individual creation, proper spacing, and everything else that goes into sound NBA offense. 

Still, there is some truth to even good shots simply not going in sometimes, and the bottom line is the Knicks are ice cold to start this season. They have the lowest true-shooting percentage in the league, and only Charlotte has a worse traditional shooting clip than New York's 40.8%. Add in a 32.4% 3-point mark, and you can see why the Knicks own the league's second-worst offensive rating to start the season. 

This is in stark contrast to the Knicks team we watched buzz-saw its way to the title last season, when they were the playoff leader in both field-goal and 3-point percentage. Think about all the tough shots we watched Jalen Brunson make on that postseason run, particularly late in games. So far, those shots, most of which are pretty similar looks are not going in at anywhere close to the same clip. 

Other than Towns, who has shot the cover off the ball to start, New York's starters are all struggling to find their early stroke. Brunson, who shot 12 for 28 against the Magic and missed all six of his 3s before finally making one in the final seconds when the game was long over, is at 39% overall and 26% from 3. Anunoby is shooting 41% from the floor and 28% from 3. Josh Hart, who is back to getting the silent treatment as defenses basically don't guard him at the 3-point line to allow for a roaming defender in the paint, is at 41% and 33%, respectively. 

Every 3-point shot that Hart takes is a win for the defense, and right now he's taking twice as many per game (7.0, up from 3.7 last year) as he has at any point in his career. As stated above, these are the wrong shots. If defenses are going to force Hart into seven 3-pointers each game, the Knicks are going to feel that offensively. 

And we haven't even gotten to the worst shooter yet ...

2. Mikal Bridges has gone from hero to zero

Bridges was unquestionably one of the playoff heroes. After a slow start in the first round against Atlanta, he was incredible on both ends throughout New York's run. To say that he's been dreadful to start this season would be putting it politely. 

Bridges is averaging three points -- 3.3, to be exact -- on 5-for-23 shooting to open the season. He's missed all 10 of his 3-point attempts and, in fact, hasn't made a single jump shot outside the paint. He's got two airballs and has been a shell of his postseason defensive self, and the numbers reflect all of this. 

So far, the Knicks are registering a minus-26.1 net rating over 183 possessions with Bridges on the floor. Over 109 possessions with him on the bench, that number completely flips to +26.6 with what would rank as the best offense in the league. 

Bridges, whose 10 points are the fewest he has scored over any three-game span since his second year in the league, still has three years and $109 million left on his current deal with a fourth-year player option for another $41.5 million in 2028-29. 

As the Knicks come into a salary squeeze with Towns, Hart and, eventually, Brunson needing new deals, you have to wonder if Bridges might end up on the trade market if his play doesn't improve considerably. The Knicks likely aren't going to be able to keep everyone if Towns doesn't take a major discount and/or James Dolan backs off his no-second-apron stance. 

3. Too many turnovers

The Knicks are turning the ball over on almost 17% of their possessions so far, up from 13.9% last season. That might not sound like a lot (it's about three turnovers per game more), and it's also true that New York turned the basketball over on 16.6% of its possessions in the playoffs and obviously fared more than fine. But it's the points these turnovers are directly leading to for their opponents that are killing them. 

Through three games, the Knicks are conceding almost 21 points per game off their own turnovers. That's up almost five points from last year's mark, and almost six points from their playoff mark when they were really humming. 

Against Orlando, the Knicks committed six fourth-quarter turnovers and lost the points-off-turnovers battle 23-12. All told, they are minus-20 in this category for the season. As Mike Brown said following Sunday's loss, "that's a hard gap to make up" when you're not shooting well. 

4. Poor transition defense

New York's lagging transition defense has in part been due to the live-ball turnovers, but they're also just not consistently getting back with enough urgency and shooters are being left open. 

Late in the second quarter against Orlando, Brunson missed the 3 on one end, then jogged back with his back turned to the play and nobody picked up a knockdown shooter in Desmond Bane, who hit a warmup 3. On the very next possession, Hart turned the ball over at half court and it led to another Bane transition 3. Two mistakes, a seven-point lead became a one-point lead in a matter of seconds. 

In the opening-night loss, the Knicks gave up 24 fast-break points to the 76ers. According to Tom Haberstroh, that's the most fast-break points the Knicks have conceded in their last 58 games, including the playoffs. 

The Knicks are actually doing a fine job of limiting transition possessions (only the Celtics are operating less in transition as a percentage of their total possessions defended), but when teams have been able to run on them, they have been cut up to the tune of 145.5 points per transition play -- the fourth-worst mark in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. 

As Brown noted after the Orlando loss, there hasn't been any one factor on which this 0-3 start can be blamed. The Knicks are playing well in stretches and then letting up in others. They gave up 13 fast-break points against the Magic in the first half, cleaned that up to six in the second half, but then committed 11 turnovers. 

Good shooting can cover for a lot of mistakes in basketball, but right now the Knicks are not shooting well and it's exacerbating all these other parts of the game that they are not executing at a consistent enough level. It's not time to panic, but New York definitely needs to get its act together sooner than later. There is no room for error in this Eastern Conference.