Predicting player option decisions for Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman and more ahead of 2025-2026 MLB offseason
Which of these players will join the free-agent market this winter?
By
Mike Axisa
•
12 min read
We're in the dog days of the 2025 MLB regular season and soon the postseason races will really heat up. Front offices can't get too caught up in the moment though. They're already looking ahead to the offseason and making the necessary preparations so they can attack the free-agent and trade markets, and also figure out what it'll take to retain their own players.
Two weeks ago, the Royals kept righty Seth Lugo around with a two-year, $46 million extension. Lugo was expected to opt out of his contract and test free agency after this season, and if the Royals couldn't get an extension done, there was a very good chance they would have traded Lugo prior to the July 31 deadline. Instead, he's sticking around through 2027.
"After being here for a year and a half, me and my family just fell in love with the city," Lugo said after signing his deal. "Kansas City is such a pretty place and it's treated us so well. As far as on the field, me and the other pitchers and the entire pitching department, we really feel like we're onto something really special. From the coaching staff -- but more specifically, the pitching department -- it's something that we're building, and it's something I want to be a part of."
More than a few others have option decisions coming after the season, be it a player option or an opt out, which are functionally the same thing. In both cases, the terms (dollars and years) have already been negotiated, and the decision whether to collect on those terms lies with the player. Player options/opt outs have become increasingly popular in recent years.
Here, listed alphabetically, are the five most interesting player option/opt out decisions remaining now that Lugo has hitched his wagon to the Royals for another two years.
OF Cody Bellinger, Yankees
Contract situation: $25 million player option for 2026 ($5 million buyout)
The Cubs will kick in $2.5 million either to the player option salary or the buyout, not that it makes a difference to Bellinger. He's getting his $25 million salary or $5 million buyout either way. Bellinger had an opt out last offseason as well, but declined to use it, and stuck with his $27.5 million salary for 2025. A few weeks later, Chicago traded him to the Yankees.
"The true answer is it's just so far ahead," Bellinger told reporters, including the New York Daily News, when asked about his opt out last month. "I'm thinking about today, obviously tomorrow, the All-Star break, and that's really it. It's very cliche, but I really focus on the day-to-day, and I control what I can control that day. That's all I think about."
The 30-year-old Bellinger was acquired as part of New York's Plan B once Juan Soto signed with the Mets and he's been a terrific fit. He's provided above-average offense, very good defense while seamlessly bouncing between the three outfield positions (and first base), and quality baserunning. Bellinger has made a difference in every phase of the game for New York.
Bellinger was coming off a very good season with the Cubs in 2023 and, of course, was two years younger than he is now, but he was unable to land a long-term free-agent contract. Concerns about below-average hard-hit ability and the fact he looked like a lost cause with the Dodgers from 2021-22 hurt his market. Bellinger settled for his current one-year deal with two player options.
This is now Bellinger's third straight strong season though, ostensibly putting him in better position to cash in. Those awful 2021-22 seasons are far in the rear-view mirror and he's shown he can be a productive hitter despite not lighting up Statcast with big exit velocities. If Bellinger can't land a long-term contract this offseason, he likely never will.
Prediction: Bellinger opt outs. He's fit in so well with the Yankees that I would expect them to pursue a reunion, but an extension that makes the opt out moot would surprise me. Bellinger still is a Scott Boras client, after all, and Boras typically takes his clients out into free agency. To keep him, the Yankees would likely have to win a free-agent bidding war.
RHP Shane Bieber, Blue Jays
Contract situation: $16 million player option for 2026 ($4 million buyout)
The Guardians re-signed their longtime ace this past offseason and he did not throw a single pitch for them on that new contract. Bieber had Tommy John surgery last April and is wrapping up his rehab right now. The contract, which will pay Bieber $10 million this year, basically has the player option as an insurance policy. If he had a setback or doesn't perform (see: Sandy Alcantara), Bieber can take the $16 million in 2026.
Toronto acquired Bieber at the trade deadline with an eye on October. They brought him in not so much to help them get to the postseason (they're in good shape to do that already) but because he can be a difference-making starter, and they want him to be healthy and at his best in their most important games in a few weeks.
Through six minor-league rehab starts, Bieber has a 2.45 ERA with 33 strikeouts and three walks in 22 innings. He is expected to make at least one more rehab start before joining the Blue Jays and making his 2025 debut. The club's focus is on 2025, obviously, but Blue Jays management is open to a longer term relationship with Bieber.
"It's just so exciting to think about him in this organization moving forward," GM Ross Atkins said on TSN 1050's OverDrive two weeks ago (via MLB.com). "We're open (to keeping Bieber beyond 2025). We are obviously extremely interested or we wouldn't have given up such a significant piece. For now, we're just focused on the impact this year."
Prediction: Based on how his rehab his going (reports about his stuff have been positive), I would expect Bieber to decline the player option and go out into free agency. The $4 million buyout means it's a $12 million decision for him and $12 million is nothing for a good starter these days. Bieber turned 30 in May. He has plenty of productive years ahead of him and is poised to cash in this winter, assuming he pitches as well for Toronto as he has during his rehab starts.
3B Alex Bregman, Red Sox
Contract situation: Can opt out of two years and $80 million (also has an opt out after 2026)
I don't know about you, but I get the feeling that more than a few teams are sitting here on Aug. 13 saying, "hmmm, maybe we shouldn't have let Bregman go to the Red Sox when he was sitting there unsigned in February." Other than a seven-week absence with a quad strain, Bregman has been terrific for Boston. He's played at an MVP level when on the field.
"Obviously, we're open to talking (about a contract), but for the next few months, I'm just really focused on the baseball," Bregman told reporters, including the Boston Globe, this past weekend. "I'm just focused on trying to do what I can to help this team win and get into the playoffs. I feel like that's where my head and mind need to be."
I wouldn't read anything into that non-answer. Bregman is smart and also a Boras client who has been media trained to the nth degree. He's been a perfect fit for the Red Sox and vice versa. It makes sense to continue the relationship. Bregman would only hurt his leverage by coming out and saying that though. Words from either side don't mean much right now.
Point is, Bregman has been fantastic and is well positioned to opt out of his contract and give free agency another try. He's having a much better season than he did in 2024 and he's also showing that he can be productive away from the righty hitter-friendly Crawford Boxes in Houston. Few players can seriously consider walking away from $40 million a year. Bregman's one of them.
Prediction: Bregman opts out and eventually agrees to a new long-term contract with the Red Sox. He's a Boras client, so expect Bregman to see what's available in free agency, but I get the sense both sides are motivated to stay together. Boston's cheap (and excellent) young core makes it easy to fit a new contract for Bregman into ownership's not-as-ample-as-it-should-be budget.
RHP Edwin Díaz, Mets
Contract situation: Can opt out of two years and $38 million
It has already been three years since Díaz signed his reliever record five-year, $102 million contract. That came after his historic 2022 season in which he struck out more than half the batters he faced. Díaz has not repeated that season, though of course it was unrealistic to expect that guy forever. That was a one-of-a-kind season unlikely to be replicated by anyone.
Now 31, Díaz has been excellent the last two years, especially this season as he gets further away from the World Baseball Classic knee injury that ended his 2023 season before it even had a chance to start. By hard-throwing pitcher standards, Díaz has been very durable. The 2023 knee injury was a fluke and his only arm injury was a quick 15-day bout with shoulder inflammation in 2024.
Teams are loathe to pay relievers big money these days. Even the best relievers can be unpredictable year-to-year and sometimes even month-to-month (see: Devin Williams in 2025), but Díaz has been very good for a very long time. He's one of the few relievers worth a big-money contract. Thriving in New York after early adversity with the Mets is another feather in his cap. That's not easy.
"That's something I gotta look at after the season with my agent. See where we're at and make a decision," Díaz told Newsday about his opt out back in spring training. "Right now, I'm not thinking about that. I want to help this team win. I love this team. I want to stay here because I love the team, I love the coaches, I love the ownership, I love everyone. I feel really good right here."
These are Steve Cohen's Mets. They can afford any contract, including a big-money deal for a reliever, and it's not like the club is flush with high-end relievers. Deadline additions Ryan Helsley and Tyler Rogers are rentals. Díaz and his agent know that. The Mets will have enough work to do to build out their bullpen this offseason. Losing Díaz on top of that would be tough.
Prediction: Díaz leverages his opt out into an extension without ever actually hitting the open market. Remember, he signed his current deal during the five-day exclusive negotiating period without becoming a free agent, which is extremely rare for a top free agent. Díaz's current contract includes a $17.25 million club option for 2028. An extension could guarantee that, then add another club option for 2029. That would pay him $55.25 million from 2026-28 plus whatever the buyout of that 2029 option is. Hypothetically speaking, of course.
LHP Shota Imanaga, Cubs
Contract situation: It's complicated
Imanaga's contract includes a series of club options and player options that are dependent on each other. I can't say that sports becoming a big math problem has enhanced my enjoyment, but it is what it is. Here's how Imanaga's contract works:
- The Cubs have a three-year, $57 million club option covering 2026-28.
- If the Cubs decline that option, Imanaga gets a one-year player option worth $15 million for 2026.
- If Imanaga picks up that option, the Cubs get a two-year, $42 million club option covering 2027-28.
- If the Cubs decline that option, Imanaga gets a one-year player option worth $15 million for 2027.
Got all that? Needless complicated, I say, but that is Imanaga's contract. That contract has proven to be one of the shrewdest free-agent signings of the last five or six years. Imanaga has pitched at a very high level for the Cubs despite only scraping 94 mph with his fastball on his best days. Great performance, fan favorite, what's not to like?
"Our hope has always been that we want to be a destination for Japanese players," POBO Jed Hoyer said at Imanaga's introductory press conference. "We want the City of Chicago and Wrigley Field and the Cubs to be a destination."
Prediction: Imanaga won't have to make a decision about the 2026 player option because the Cubs will pick up that three-year, $57 million club option. There are a few small red flags with his strikeout and swing-and-miss rates this year, but nothing that should be a dealbreaker. Even if he's a No. 3 moving forward rather than a high-end No. 2 starter, $57 million covering the next three years is plenty reasonable. The Cubs will pick up their club option and Imanaga won't get a chance to decide on his player option.
Other notable player options/opt outs
1B Pete Alonso, Mets: This one is pretty straightforward. Alonso can opt out of a $24 million salary for 2026 and he will do that barring injury over these next few weeks. His contract amounted to $30 million in 2025 with a $24 million insurance policy in case of injury or poor performance, which hasn't happened. Alonso will head back into free agency and hope to secure the long-term deal he was unable to land this past offseason.
RHP Jack Flaherty, Tigers: On June 20, Flaherty made his 15th start, which triggered a $10 million escalator for his 2026 player option. That is now worth $20 million. Some days, Flaherty looks like one of the best pitchers in the sport and others he looks like a No. 5 starter. He also has age on his side (turns 30 in October). I suspect Flaherty will opt out and be able to find multiple years as a free agent, though I'm not overly confident in that right now.
IF Ha-Seong Kim, Rays: Kim had shoulder surgery last October and the Rays signed him to a two-year contract knowing he would miss the first few weeks of 2025. He made his season debut on July 4, missed 10 days with a back issue late last month, and still hasn't gotten going at the plate. Kim will make $13 million this year and he can opt out of $16 million next year. Moreso than any other player featured here, Kim's opt out decision will depend on his performance the rest of this season.
SS Trevor Story, Red Sox: This is Story's best and healthiest season in Boston, though he's still just a league-average hitter with defense that rates as below average more than solid. Story, 33 in November, can opt out of the final two years and $55 million remaining on his contract. I have a hard time believing he will pass that up, especially since he would open himself up to a pre-signing physical as a free agent after having major elbow and shoulder surgery within the last two and a half years.
RHP Robert Suarez, Padres: Suarez can opt out of the final two years and $16 million remaining on his contract after this season and seems like a good bet to do that. Blake Treinen, at age 37 and with a scary injury history, signed a two-year deal worth $22 million this past winter. Suarez is 34 and healthy. He should have little trouble beating $16 million on the open market. The Padres bringing in Mason Miller will make it easier to let Suarez leave so they reallocate the money elsewhere.
