The All-Star break is in the books and the trade deadline is less than two weeks away. The deals could begin any day now even though there may not be many sellers because so many teams are in the race. It'll sort itself out and there will be trades at the deadline. There always are. Until then, here are three trends going on across the league to keep an eye on.
Yankees missing first-inning offense
Yankees fans who watched last week's All-Star Game saw something they haven't seen very much of these last few weeks: their players driving in runs in the first inning. Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice put together back-to-back RBI singles to plate three runs against Cristopher Sánchez in the Midsummer Classic. Bellinger's two-run single earned him All-Star Game MVP honors.
Scoring in the first inning has been a real problem for the Yankees these last few weeks. Well, scoring in general has been an issue for the Yankees since Aaron Judge got hurt, but their first-inning offense specifically has completely dried up. Here are New York's numbers in the first inning going into Tuesday, which means they include Monday's error-aided four-run first inning against the Pirates:
| 2024-25 | 2026 with Judge | 2026 without Judge | |
|---|---|---|---|
Runs per 1st inning | 0.68 (1st in MLB) | 0.75 (2nd in MLB) | 0.39 (27th in MLB) |
Homers per 1st inning | 0.56 (1st) | 0.27 (2nd) | 0.22 (10th) |
Batting average | .280 (1st) | .255 (8th) | .199 (29th) |
On-base percentage | .363 (1st) | .338 (7th) | .242 (30th) |
Slugging percentage | .549 (1st) | .554 (1st) | .410 (20th) |
Judge typically bats second or third in the lineup, guaranteeing him a first-inning at-bat. Because of that, the Yankees were far and away the highest scoring first-inning team in baseball the last few years. Judge could put a run on the board with a home run, and if someone got on in front of him, it was multiple runs. Or, Judge could walk and the guys behind him would drive him in.
Just to further drive home (no pun intended) that point, here is the single-season first-inning home run leaderboard:
- Aaron Judge, 2025: 20
- Aaron Judge, 2024: 18
- Alex Rodriguez, 2001: 18
- Mark McGwire, 1999: 17
- Several tied with 16
New York's first-inning offense with Judge slipped from otherworldly to pretty good this year in part because he played through his fractured rib for a few weeks, and his numbers suffered. The Yankees were still a threat to score in the first inning though, for sure. Since Judge got hurt, forget it. They've had a completely toothless attack in the game's first inning. Very little threat whatsoever.
First-inning runs force the other team to play catch-up right from the start. They put stress on the opposing pitcher, give your pitcher a little breathing room, and set the tone for the game. Who doesn't love first-inning runs? Your team comes out and scores early, and you feel great about the night ahead. No team has had a better first-inning offense than the Yankees over the last few years.
There is much more to this than Judge's absence -- Bellinger regularly hits near the top of the lineup and has been in a brutal slump the last few weeks -- but he's a very big part of it. He just put together one of the most dominant four-year spans in history, and now he's out of the lineup. Judge being out changes everything for the Yankees, including their early strike offense
Minnesota's on-the-fly defensive overhaul
Thanks to a 17-9 surge, the Twins went into Tuesday three games behind the third wild-card spot. They're very much in the race and it has maybe complicated their trade deadline outlook a bit. It wasn't long ago that Minnesota was seen as a slam dunk seller. Now they might buy, which could take top trade chips Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan off the market.
The Twins are where they are because of their offense. They went into Tuesday averaging 4.78 runs per game, the eighth most in baseball, and when you score that many runs, you'll have a chance every night. The Twins have also surged recently thanks to improvement in the field. They're doing a better job catching the ball and turning balls that should be outs into outs.
The defensive improvement is the product of an on-the-fly realignment. The Twins have moved several players to new positions, in some cases taking them off their longtime positions. Here are the positional before and afters:
| Opening Day position | Current position | |
|---|---|---|
1B | 2B | |
2B | CF and RF | |
SS | 3B | |
3B | 1B |
Ryan Kreidler, who forced his way into the everyday lineup with his strong play, is now at shortstop. He replaces Lee, who moved to third base to replace Lewis, who moved to first base to replace Clemens, who moved to second to replace Keaschall, who moved to the outfield to replace Matt Wallner (demoted to Triple-A). Clemens saw some right field time, too. Got all that?
Only Jeffers (catcher), Byron Buxton (center field), Trevor Larnach (left field), and Josh Bell (DH) remain at the positions they played to start the season. Otherwise, it has been a wholesale realignment done with players who were already on the roster. The Twins didn't go out and trade for a new player who necessitated defensive changes. They made the changes with guys they already had.
"It's important for us organizationally that guys play multiple positions," manager Derek Shelton told MLB.com about the team's in-season defensive changes last month. "There's very few guys that we feel are going to be locked into one spot. I think if you look at our club right now, we have one player, right? (Buxton) plays one spot and he plays center and it's really good when he's on the field in center. But other than that, yeah, we will continue to explore not only with players in the minor leagues in Royce's case or players at the major league level at other positions."
The defensive realignment didn't happen all at once. It was gradual over several weeks, with Lewis only moving to first base after he returned from a Triple-A demotion. Has it worked? The numbers say yes:
| Outs above average | BABIP on ground balls | |
|---|---|---|
April | -6 | .256 |
May | -4 | .272 |
June | -10 | .280 |
July | 0 | .206 |
That's real improvement. Minus-4 OAA in a single month is pretty bad, never mind minus-10. With their new-look defense, the Twins are now bang-on average at 0 OAA. The improvement in their batting average allowed on ground balls is even more drastic. The MLB average is .240 BABIP on ground balls. The Twins were really bad at turning grounders into outs and now they're great at it.
There's nothing sexy about league average, but for Minnesota, getting to a league-average defense represents a big improvement. They did it without any new players (unless you count Kreidler playing more). They simply moved people around and put them at positions that better suit their skills. Credit to them for making those moves and the players for buying in.
Bad defense hurts in so many ways. It's more baserunners and runs. It's more stressful pitches for your pitchers, which means more work for the bullpen. Minnesota's defense was a major liability early in the season. The climb up the standings is happening thanks in part to the new-look defense. Without any new players, the Twins turned a bad defense into an acceptable one.
Nationals on pace for dubious record
Similar to the White Sox in the American League, the Nationals are ahead of schedule. When they got to 23-23 on May 16, it was the deepest into a season they had a .500 record since they were 40-40 on July 2, 2021. After five straight 90-loss seasons, getting to .500 in May equals progress. Washington has continued to hang around that level. They've yet to fade down the standings.
The Nationals would be better (much better) than .500-ish if not for baseball's worst bullpen. Pick a stat (ERA, FIP, expected ERA, WAR, etc.) and Washington's bullpen sits at or near the bottom of the league. The weekend before the All-Star break, the bullpen blew a lead in the eighth inning or later in three straight games en route to getting swept by the Yankees. An average bullpen would help this team so much.
Because the bullpen has been so effective, the Nationals are approaching a dubious record. They went into Tuesday's action with 27 blown saves this season, putting them on pace for 43. 43! That would obliterate the all-time record, a record the Nationals already share. Here's the single-season blown saves leaderboard:
- Nationals, 2021: 37 blown saves
- White Sox, 2021: 37 blown saves
- Rays, 2022: 36 blown saves
- Several teams tied with 34
Only a handful of other teams, most of them recent, given modern bullpen usage, have blown even 30 saves in a single season. The Nationals could get there by the end of this weekend if they have a few rough games.
Now, blown saves can be deceptive. You can blow a save even if you were never going for the save. If you turn a one-run lead over to your setup man in the eighth inning and he gives up a solo homer, he gets stuck with a blown save even though the closer was always going to come in for the ninth. Setup guys get hosed here. They pile up blown saves but few actual saves.
On top of that, the Nationals use their bullpen unconventionally. They use a lot of multi-inning relievers (their 137 multi-inning relief appearances are nine more than any other team) and sometimes a reliever will get stuck with a blown save when he was merely the bulk guy after an opener. Such are the quirks of the save and blown save stat.
Bottom line, though, a lot of blown saves is a bad thing, and the Nationals are lapping the field this year. They're on pace to crush the all-time record. In a way, it's impressive. The Nationals are having a good and fun season despite their bullpen being such a liability. Fix the relief crew in the offseason, and Washington could be a real force.
