We're getting closer to the start of the season, and most Fantasy drafts will take place in about a month. But plenty of mock drafts are happening now, which means the Average Draft Position data is starting to look real.
With that in mind, it's time to update my bust candidates for the upcoming season, and we'll once again use the FantasyPros ADP. You can see what I had for Busts 1.0.
There are some repeat candidates on this list since the ADP is still bad -- or has gotten worse -- for some of these guys. There's also been some new information on some of these players as well since we did the first list in May.
Now, this doesn't mean I would completely avoid all of these players this season. I just don't want to draft them at their current cost.
I have McCaffrey ranked as a first-round pick, but the earliest I would draft him is No. 9 overall. And he's my No. 4 running back behind Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor and James Cook -- for now. I'm worried about McCaffrey, who has a FantasyPros ADP of No. 6 overall as RB3. He turned 30 in June and just had 450 total touches in 2025, including the playoffs (337 carries and 113 catches). This is the third time in McCaffrey's career that he had at least 400 total touches in a season (2023 with the 49ers and 2019 with Carolina) and he missed 13 games due to injury the following year both times. We all remember 2024 when he struggled with Achilles and knee problems and was limited to four games. In 2020 in Carolina, McCaffrey played just three games due to three separate injuries (a right high-ankle sprain, a shoulder A/C joint sprain and a thigh/glute strain). We can't predict injuries, but the history suggests McCaffrey might not hold up in 2026. When healthy, he's awesome, and he was just the No. 1 non-quarterback in 2025 at 24.5 PPR points per game. You could be missing the best player in Fantasy if you pass on him. But you also could have a major problem if he gets hurt again after his hefty workload in 2025, and I'm concerned about McCaffrey's outlook for this year. I'd rather have: Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP is WR4 at No. 7 overall), Jonathan Taylor (ADP is RB4 at No. 8 overall) and James Cook (ADP is RB6 at No. 12 overall)
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According to Fantasy Points, the quarterback with the second-highest target rate to running backs since 2023 was Tua Tagovailoa at 24.5 percent (Shedeur Sanders was No. 1 at 25.5 percent). The quarterback with the lowest target rate to running backs over that span was Malik Willis at 10.8 percent. That's telling given how much Achane was involved as a receiver for the Dolphins, as he's averaged 86 targets and 72.5 receptions the past two seasons. Now, Willis will obviously use Achane as a weapon in the passing game, especially given the state of Miami's receiving corps going into the season. But Willis will run much more than Tagovailoa, so expect Achane's production as a receiver to decline this year. We'll also see just how much Tagovailoa's absence -- as well as coach Mike McDaniel -- will hinder Achane. He averaged 21.5 PPR points in 25 games with Tagovailoa in the past two seasons and just 10.5 PPR points in eight games without Tagovailoa over that span. The Dolphins aren't expected to win many games in 2025 -- their projected win total is 4.5 -- so touchdown opportunities could be tough for Achane. I can't draft him at his FantasyPros ADP at No. 13 overall as RB7, and the earliest I would draft Achane is No. 21 overall. I'd rather have: Chase Brown (ADP is RB11 at 18 overall), Kenneth Walker III (ADP is RB10 at No. 17 overall) and Omarion Hampton (ADP is RB9 at No. 15 overall)
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I was hopeful Alvin Kamara would leave New Orleans, but he restructured his contract in July to stay with the Saints. Now, we have a problem for Etienne with Kamara still on the roster. I would not draft Etienne at his current FantasyPros ADP at No. 40 overall as RB18. Kamara could work on passing downs, and we'll see how much that hinders Etienne's production. He was great in 2025 with the Jaguars when he averaged 14.9 PPR points per game. But keep in mind he only has two seasons in his career over 12.5 PPR points per game, and he was miserable in 2024 when he averaged a career-low 8.7 PPR points. Even if Kamara, 31, doesn't take Etienne off the field, Kellen Moore doesn't help his running backs thrive in the passing game. The Saints were tied for No. 26 in 2025 in total running back targets. When Moore was the offensive coordinator with Philadelphia in 2024 with Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell, the Eagles were No. 29 in total running back targets. Moore was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2023 with Austin Ekeler, and Los Angeles was tied for No. 20 in total running back targets. And during Moore's final year as the offensive coordinator in Dallas in 2022 with Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot, the Cowboys were tied for No. 25 in total running back targets. The earliest I would draft Etienne is Round 5. I'd rather have: Cam Skattebo (ADP is RB19 at No. 43 overall), Quinshon Judkins (ADP is RB23 at No. 53 overall) and D'Andre Swift (ADP is RB24 at No. 57 overall)
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I'm still hopeful for Henderson to be a star in his sophomore campaign, but I would not draft him at his current FantasyPros ADP at No. 50 overall as RB21. I view Henderson as more of a high-end flex, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 6. I was so excited to draft Henderson as a rookie in 2025. I loved his potential with the Patriots, and I thought he would be a weekly Fantasy starter, especially in PPR. He showed that potential in a few games last season, especially in Weeks 9-11 when Rhamondre Stevenson was injured, and Henderson averaged 24.3 PPR points over that span. He also scored 30.1 PPR points in Week 15 against Buffalo and 17.3 PPR points in Week 18 against Miami. But if you remove those five games then Henderson averaged just 6.4 PPR points in his other 16 outings, including the playoffs. For the year, he appeared in 18 games with Stevenson, who played more snaps than Henderson in 15 of those contests. It would be great to see Henderson take a step forward this season and keep Stevenson on the bench, but that's hard to expect given what happened in 2025. As long as you don't reach for Henderson, he could be a nice surprise this season, especially if Stevenson were to miss any time due to injury. I'd rather have: Quinshon Judkins (ADP is RB23 at No. 53 overall), D'Andre Swift (ADP is RB24 at No. 57 overall) and David Montgomery (ADP is RB22 at No. 52 overall)
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It's fantastic news that Nabers (knee) won't be placed on the active/PUP list to start training camp in his comeback from last year's torn ACL and meniscus tear in his right knee. I had to adjust this post when the news came out, and I even moved him up in my rankings to WR21 at No. 43 overall. But that's still behind his FantasyPros ADP of WR14 at No. 32 overall. I can't draft him in Round 3 at that spot. We still don't know when Nabers will begin to practice in full, and he could still miss games early in the season until the Giants feel he's back at 100 percent after he was injured in Week 4 last year. When healthy, we know Nabers could be dominant, and he averaged 18.2 PPR points in his rookie campaign in 2024. He'll face more competition for targets this season with the additions of Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields, and the Giants want to be a run-heavy team under new coach John Harbaugh. My hope is Nabers is at full strength in the second half of the season, and hopefully Fantasy managers who draft him get a league-winner heading into the playoffs. But there's no guarantee when Nabers will be ready to go, and the beginning part of the year could be problematic. I will only draft him in Round 4 or later. I'd rather have: Tee Higgins (ADP is WR17 at No. 37 overall), Zay Flowers (ADP is WR15 at No. 34 overall) and Emeka Egbuka (ADP is WR19 at No. 39 overall)
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Tetairoa McMillan It's a positive that McMillan could see more time in the slot this year, and hopefully that leads to easy target opportunities from Bryce Young. But that's not enough to justify drafting McMillan at his FantasyPros ADP of WR18 at No. 38 overall. The earliest I would draft McMillan is the back end of Round 4. I expect McMillan to stay in the same range of production as his rookie campaign in 2025 when he had 70 catches for 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns on 122 targets, and he averaged 12.4 PPR points per game. I don't believe that Young in Carolina's offense will help elevate McMillan to a higher level, and the Panthers could be without two starting offensive linemen early in the season with left tackle Iken Ekwonu (knee) and right tackle Taylor Moton (blood clots) battling injuries. We also saw McMillan get outplayed down the stretch last year by Jalen Coker, who missed the first six games of the season with a quadriceps injury. In their final five games together, including the playoffs, McMillan averaged 9.8 PPR points and 6.2 targets per game over that span, while Coker averaged 14.1 PPR points and 6.0 targets per game. McMillan should be good, but I have concerns about him being great in 2026. I'd rather have: Ladd McConkey (ADP is WR20 at No. 42 overall), Terry McLaurin (ADP is WR23 at No. 47 overall) and Jaylen Waddle (ADP is WR21 at No. 44 overall)
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Davante Adams The positive for Adams last year was leading the NFL in touchdown receptions with 14, which was amazing since he did that in 14 games. He also added another touchdown in the NFL playoffs, and he has scored at least 10 touchdowns in seven of 12 years in his career. The negative for Adams was everything else. He was 44th in receptions with 60 and tied for 34th in receiving yards with 789. In the seven games last season where Adams failed to score a touchdown, including the playoffs, Adams averaged just 9.3 PPR points and had two games with more than 12 PPR points. Now, he was averaging 8.1 targets per game, which was great, and hopefully that continues. He should still get plenty of chances as the No. 2 receiver for the Rams opposite Puka Nacua. But if the touchdowns decline -- he only scored eight in each of his previous two seasons with the Raiders and Jets -- then Adams could be in trouble if he's starting to slow down based on his receptions and yards from last year. And you have to take that into account since he's 33. His FantasyPros ADP is WR22 at No. 46 overall, and I don't want to draft him in Round 4. The earliest I would draft him is the back end of Round 5. I'd rather have: Terry McLaurin (ADP is WR23 at No. 47 overall), Luther Burden III (ADP is WR24 at No. 49 overall) and D.J. Moore (ADP is WR26 at No. 56 overall)
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Jameson Williams Williams was the No. 21 receiver in 2025 at 12.9 PPR points per game, but you need to look at his season in two parts. The first part, with a healthy Sam LaPorta, was bad for Williams. In nine games with LaPorta, Williams averaged just 10.9 PPR points and 4.8 targets per game. In eight games without LaPorta after he suffered a back injury, Williams averaged 15.2 PPR points and 7.4 targets per game. LaPorta is healthy heading into training camp, as is Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the Lions are hopeful to get second-year receiver Isaac TeSlaa more opportunities. It's tough for new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing to get everyone involved, especially with Jahmyr Gibbs in the backfield, and Williams could struggle. I want to draft Williams in Round 6 as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver with upside. When he's on, he's special, and he had six games in 2025 with at least 16.6 PPR points. But he also has plenty of letdown outings, including seven games last year at 6.6 PPR points or less. His FantasyPros ADP is WR25 at No. 51 overall, and that's too expensive for me if everyone is healthy in Detroit prior to Week 1. I'd rather have: D.J. Moore (ADP is WR26 at No. 56 overall), Mike Evans (ADP is WR27 at No. 59 overall) and Christian Watson (ADP is WR30 at No. 64 overall)
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DK Metcalf It feels like Fantasy managers are still drafting Metcalf based on his name and not his game. At least the way he played the game in 2025. In his first year with the Steelers, Metcalf had career lows in targets (99) and yards (850), and his 59 receptions was the second-lowest mark of his career. He also scored just six touchdowns, and this is four years in a row with him finding the end zone in single digits. Metcalf and Aaron Rodgers are not a good match since Rodgers doesn't want to consistently challenge downfield at this point in his career. Metcalf now has to share the field with Michael Pittman, and Pittsburgh added rookie Germie Bernard in the second round of the NFL Draft. Metcalf's FantasyPros ADP is WR33 at No. 69 overall, but I don't want to draft him as a starter even in three-receiver leagues. I have Metcalf ranked as WR42 at No. 96 overall, and I'm close to ranking him behind Pittman, who should be a better fit for Rodgers. This should be another frustrating season for Metcalf and his Fantasy production. I'd rather have: Parker Washington (ADP is WR36 at No. 77 overall), Alec Pierce (ADP is WR37 at No. 80 overall) and Quentin Johnston (ADP is WR42 at No. 93 overall)
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Harold Fannin Jr. Any time a player has a standout rookie season or a breakout campaign out of nowhere, you obviously want to see if he can do it again. Fannin was amazing in 2025 as a rookie, and he closed the year on a tear with at least 11 PPR points in five games in a row, while averaging 15.8 PPR points over that span. It helped propel Fannin to the No. 8 PPR tight end for the season, and he finished the year with 72 catches for 731 yards and six touchdowns on 107 targets, which led the team. But three significant factors have changed for Fannin heading into this year. For starters, Kevin Stefanski is gone as the head coach, and he has been fantastic for tight ends in his career. New coach Todd Monken also likes to involve his tight ends, but it's not the same level as Stefanski. Along with that, there's significantly more competition for targets this season after Cleveland drafted KC Concepcion with the No. 24 overall pick in the first round of the NFL Draft and Denzel Boston in Round 2 at No. 39 overall. Jerry Jeudy remains on the roster, and Fannin isn't guaranteed to lead the team in targets again. Finally, we could get a quarterback change if Deshaun Watson -- who hasn't played football since Week 7 in 2024 due to an Achilles injury -- starts in place of Shedeur Sanders. Watson doesn't have a great history throwing to tight ends, and Sanders helped Fannin break out at the end of 2025. I would still draft Fannin as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, but I don't like his current FantasyPros ADP of TE6 at No. 78 overall. The earliest I would draft Fannin is Round 8. I'd rather have: Tucker Kraft (ADP is TE7 at No. 79 overall) and Sam LaPorta (ADP is TE8 at No. 81 overall)
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