Injuries continue to pile up across training camp and preseason action, with Year 2 breakout candidate Jayden Higgins (torn ACL) being the latest (as of this writing) brutal news. It has nearly been impossible to keep rankings updated fast enough to reflect all of the changes, but I've done my best.
Following the Higgins injury and an insightful discussion with Dan Schneier about the "2026 JSN" candidacy of Nico Collins, I've moved Houston's stud WR1 up to 19th overall in my latest Half-PPR rankings update. I now have Collins ranked as WR7.
The biggest riser is undoubtedly Jaylin Noel. I just discussed him with Dan as we highlighted "every Fantasy Football sleeper you need to know" on Beyond the Box Score. Noel moved up to 102 overall, ahead of KC Concepcion in my rankings.
You will not have to draft him that high. I'm extremely high on his potential and see him as a player with a Fantasy-friendly skill set who can win in and out of the slot and benefit from the defensive attention that Collins attracts. If Noel gets one-on-one opportunities, he has the talent to win repeatedly. I also do believe he can succeed as one of the two receivers who stays on the field in bigger personnel packages. Noel is a dawg. I'd be surprised if he got the dreaded Jayden Reed treatment. I could be wrong, though, those reps might go to Xavier Hutchinson or even Tank Dell. You can find my Dell ranking here.
Here are the other biggest WR risers following Preseason Week 1 action.
And here are WR Rankings (Half-PPR) from last week. I'll provide an update on my Top-200 overall at the end of this week!
2026 Fantasy Football WR Strategy
If you read the RB Strategy portion of the most-recent newsletter, you know that the top of the draft board is very RB-heavy this year. And still, the very top of my draft board, actually has more receivers than any other position. For half- or full-PPR formats, I rank five receivers in my top-eight players overall. I know opinions are split on CeeDee Lamb this year, but I see him as a bonafide Round 1 selection who could certainly finish as WR1 overall. Structurally, I'd love to land on a RB in Round 1. As you'll read today, there are a bunch of Round 3-6 receiver options that I find appealing. If you wanna break a tie between a Round 1 WR/RB by taking a structure-focused approach, I'm fine drafting an RB ahead of a WR who I have ranked higher -- especially in leagues with just two starting WR spots. In leagues with three receiver spots or multiple flexes, I do lean towards the Round 1 receivers over all but the top-three running backs.
After the Round 1 caliber receivers are off the board, the only one who I am considering investing a Round 2 pick into is A.J. Brown. He got a resounding "yes" from Dan Schneier when I asked for confirmation on AJB's "this year's JSN" case.
Round 2 is almost exclusively an RB round for me this year, though. Ideally, I can land on AJB or Nico Collins in Round 3. Malik Nabers or George Pickens are intriguing upside swings in Round 3, too.
Round 4 is often a RB round, too. Ladd McConkey is a sweet league-winning WR candidate consolation prize if the RB I was targeting does not fall to me. If healthy, Emeka Egbuka actually takes precedence over McConkey for me. I love getting Zay Flowers in Round 4. I also have Jaylen Waddle, Luther Burden, Mike Evans, and Christian Watson ranked as valid picks in Round 4, but one or even all four can probably be found in Round 5.
In Rounds 5-6, I am usually going to grab at least one receiver. My favorite targets include Waddle, Burden, Evans, Watson, Parker Washington, and Davante Adams.
Round 7 often turns into a tight end pick for me. Occasionally, Rome Odunze, Jameson Williams, or even Washington will fall to Round 7. I do have all three ranked ahead of the tight ends who I love as Round 7 picks. Unless I'm already rolling three-deep at WR, I'll grab one of those receivers ahead of Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Tyler Warren, and Harold Fannin Jr. -- I even have Josh Downs and Jayden Reed ranked ahead of Fannin. Let's talk about those two.
2026 Player Takes at WR
Favorite Sleeper - Josh Downs / Jayden Reed
Jaylin Noel is the WR who I have ranked by far the highest relative to consensus, but I expect that to change. The other names that are at least 20 spots above expert consensus placement in WR rankings for me are Ryan Flournoy, Cyrus Allen, Caleb Douglas, Jack Bech, Rashod Bateman, Chris Bell, and De'Vaughn Vele.
I'll cover sleepers in detail on Beyond the Box Score and the FFT Newsletter!
Reed and Downs are the two sleepers who I have hyped up on Beyond the Box Score all offseason, so I want to make sure to cover them for you here in the FFT NL. Especially since Downs recently saw Keenan Allen added to the equation and Reed was playing exclusively in the slot and only as part of three-receiver sets in the preseason. The vibes aren't immaculate at the moment, but I am not wavering.
Here's my reaction to Allen signing with Indy. It's not a surprise. My expectation is that Allen will occupy a role similar in some ways to Michael Pittman's. A lot of over-the-middle in-traffic targets are likely going to funnel to Allen. Those were targets that I was primarily assigning to Tyler Warren.
I expect Josh Downs and Alec Pierce on the field in two-receiver sets. Allen played 14 snaps from two-receiver sets last year, fewer than KeAndre Lambert-Smith or Derius Davis. Indy's coaches and GM have said all off-season that Downs has earned the opportunity to play in 2WR sets. Downs has worked as WR1 all off-season with Alec Pierce sidelined. I do not see the Allen signing as a significant change to the Downs 2026 Fantasy proposition. If healthy, Downs is probably going to smash. He's so good.
Jayden Reed has played over half of the snaps in 17 games across the past two seasons. So we have basically one full season's worth of healthy data to examine across the Year 2-3 split, and within it, Reed produced 12.3 PPR points per game. Here are receivers who averaged between 11.8-12.8 PPR points per game in 2025: Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith, Michael Pittman, Jaylen Waddle, Rome Odunze, Alec Pierce, Quentin Johnston, Stefon Diggs, Tetairoa McMillan, and DK Metcalf. An average of 12.3 points per game would have placed Reed as WR22, just behind McMillan (12.44) and Diggs (12.37).
Reed got to that average while both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks were on the team. The Packers simply did not replace those two this off-season. What if Reed's targets increase in 2026? Matthew Golden is a historically low target per-route player, considerably different than Doubs and Wicks. Reed is WR1 overall in Fantasy points per target since entering the NFL. He averaged only 4.7 targets per game across the healthy 17-game sample. In games Reed has seen at least six targets, his PPR average is 17.5 points per game. That's a 17-game career sample, and his average is just 6.88 targets per game. 17.5 PPR points per game on 6.88 targets per game is insanity. The dude is so good.
I could be wrong, but I think it makes sense to expect Reed to be targeted at a higher rate in 2026. Tucker Kraft is making his way back from knee reconstruction. Reed is entering the prime of his NFL career. Golden is a second-year player who was targeted on 16.6% of his routes in 2025. Wicks has a career 22.4% TPRR rate with Green Bay. Doubs has a 20.2% career rate. Unless Golden takes a significant Year 2 leap, then there are going to be more targets to go around.
Maybe they all go to Christian Watson. Maybe not, though! By the way, what happens if Watson misses any games? At that point, what do we imagine might happen for the most-efficient per-target WR in the NFL -- if the receiver room is reduced to Golden, Savion Williams, Bo Melton, Skyy Moore, and Jayden Reed -- could we then see Reed being worth a roster spot in Fantasy Football?
We don't need to bank on a Watson injury. Reed can get there all on his own if healthy. He's a big boy, he just earned $16.8 million annually (the Packers let Romeo Doubs walk for a price tag of $17m annually, by the way). When healthy, Reed has produced top-20-ish Fantasy WR numbers, even as part of a crowded Packers WR room. What comes next for him as he enters his fourth season? I wanna find out! At a Round 8-10 price tag, I'll be placing a bet in almost every draft I'm in.
Favorite Faller - Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman and Jakobi Meyers have been my go-to late-round fallers this draft season. Wan'Dale Robinson is fine, too, if you're into that sorta thing. I prefer these two because I can more realistically envision a ceiling outcome that involves a surprise 10+ touchdown season. Of course, I wanna bet on Liam Coen's offense. In Pittman's case, it isn't so much the offense that I want to bet on, but rather the fit with Aaron Rodgers.
Pittman is the epitome of a professional wide receiver. As I look at a WR room containing two inexperienced young players (Germie Bernard and Roman Wilson), Pittman Jr., and DK Metcalf, it feels so clear that the player who Rodgers will gravitate towards is the dependable MPJ. Especially when in scoring distance, I'd expect Pittman to play a massive role. Metcalf had just a 19.7% target per route run rate in the red zone last year. Kenneth Gainwell led the Steelers in red zone targets. Across the four seasons that Fantasy Points Data has tracked red zone targets, Metcalf has a league-low 58.8% catch rate on catchable targets in the red zone. He's not a detail-oriented player. Pittman is.
Favorite Plan B - Mike Evans
Someone recently asked if I was fine not landing an elite WR in a draft. While I do believe there is considerably more league-winning potential with the true alpha target hog types that leave draft boards in Rounds 1-3, I don't think that we have to get one at all costs in 2026. We might be able to get away with nickel-and-diming our way to upside at the position.
I would love to grab an elite receiver at a palatable price tag. But, to answer that question, yes -- I am fine with a team that has Mike Evans at WR1. This sometimes happens when I draft from the back of the order. If I go RB-RB to start and then land on Colston Loveland at the 3-4 turn, I'm probably pairing him with a WR there. But what if Jeremiyah Love falls to that spot? He's my 27th-ranked player.
In my opinion, valid "Plan B" options who might offer WR1 production include Evans, Watson, Burden (he's who I have ranked the highest of this group), Waddle, and McConkey. Evans is the riskiest of the group, but he's also the player who I believe has the best chance of returning truly elite upside. He and Burden have the best cases, in my mind.
These two are risky, no doubt! If you want a "safer" WR1 fall-back option, go with Tetairoa McMillan or Garrett Wilson. Those two are more expensive in drafts than Evans, though. And I think their respective offensive environments (this Andre Johnson comp paints a pretty pessimistic picture for receivers of this archetype) will make it very difficult for either to offer true WR1 production. If looking to replicate WR1 production with a Round 4-5 player, you're probably going to have to make a risky pick.
Godspeed to those of you attempting to navigate the injury-riddled Fantasy streets. Risk exists all around us, whether we want to embrace it or not! See ya in your inbox tomorrow!
