Fantasy Football Week 4 Wide Receiver Preview: Waiver adds, starts, sits, numbers to know, and more
Everything you need to know about wide receiver for Fantasy Football in Week 4
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4 min read
Last week, I started by telling everyone not to panic, even if you were winless. I won't insult you this week; 0-3 is desperation time. If you're 0-3 and holding Rashee Rice, this is your sign that you aren't going to be able to have Rice play for your team this year. Not if you want to play meaningful games in December. If you're 0-3 and just lost CeeDee Lamb, I am afraid it is the same story. Honestly, I am not sure how confident we should be that Lamb will play before Rice does this year. And they will both be coming off an injury when they get back.
When trying to figure out what to do at the receiver position without Rice or Lamb? Well, I have waiver wire options below, but the obvious answer is make a trade. Start by looking at the rosters of the 3-0 teams in your leagues; they probably don't care as much about missing Rice or Lamb for the next month as everyone else. If you go to a 2-1 team, that may work, but you also may have to throw in some depth because they still feel like they are in a dogfight for the playoffs.
Of course, if you want to think about players to target instead of teams, there seems to me to be one pretty clear Hail Mary option. It's Brian Thomas Jr.
I'll let you collect yourself. I know it probably sounds insane to say that the wide receiver currently averaging single-digit Fantasy points with a 29% catch rate is going to save your season. Here's the thing: His targets per game are actually up, so are his yards per reception. The catch rate has just cratered from 65% last year to 28% this year. There is a wrist injury that explains part of that, and some chemistry concerns with Trevor Lawrence as well. This is by no means a sure thing. But the person who drafted Thomas at the 1/2 turn may have already benched him. They may feel like they are drawing dead. You can probably get Thomas and an upgrade at another position for Lamb or Rice.
Again, I want to acknowledge, there is no real floor case for Thomas. But where else are you going to find his ceiling? What if the wrist heals and he gets on the same page with Lawrence? It might save your season. If not, what is the risk? Honestly, you're a long shot at 0-3 anyway. Might as well shoot for the moon.
While this opening is mostly about those desperate 0-3 teams, you, good teams, may want to sniff around Thomas as well. If you drafted well and have avoided injury, you may be able to add him for a couple of bench pieces. As scary as the floor is right now, I don't actually think the ceiling is any lower than we thought it was.
You can always find all of my projections over at Sportsline.
Here is the rest of the Week 4 WR Preview:
Week 4 WR Preview
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
- 68.8% -- More than two-thirds of Matthew Stafford's passes have gone to Puka Nacua or Davante Adams this season. They both look like great picks.
- 2.0% -- Michael Penix has a 2.0% TD rate through 204 attempts. That is a huge problem for Drake London, who hasn't scored yet this year.
- 69.6% -- Less than 70% of Zay Flowers targets have been catchable this year, the lowest mark amongst wide receivers with a 15% target share or higher.
- 4.68 -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging a league-best 4.68 yards per route run. He looks like a top-five wide receiver rest of season.
- 16.59 -- Malik Nabers had a 16.59 aDOT with Russell Wilson. That is not great for steady Fantasy production. Hopefully, it goes down with Jaxson Dart.
- 56 -- Luke McCaffrey had 56 receiving yards in the fourth quarter on Sunday. If Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown are out this week, McCaffrey could be a sneaky start.
- 47 -- The Cowboys are giving up 47 PPR FPPG to wide receivers. One of Matthew Golden, Romeo Doubs, or Dontayvion Wicks could have a breakout game.
- 50 -- The Vikings have only allowed one wide receiver all year to top 50 yards. They've also only given up one touchdown to a wide receiver. You may want to get away from DK Matcalf.
- 7 -- George Pickens ranks third in the NFL with seven red zone targets. He has a huge opportunity with CeeDee Lamb likely out this week.
- 10 -- Chris Olave has at least 10 targets in every game this year. He hasn't yet reached 60 yards in a game. He's an excellent option in full PPR, less so if catches don't count.
WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 4 Adds (WR Preview)
Don't break the bank on Tucker this week, but he is worth an add. Week 3 was his second game in a row with at least eight targets, and he has done very well with them, averaging 10.6 yards per target. He leads the NFL with four receiving touchdowns and is currently a top-five wide receiver in Fantasy points. He won't keep that up, but he could be a boom/bust WR3 in the same range as Jameson Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. Those guys are valuable, particularly with bye weeks approaching. Also, he faces a Bears defense this week that has already allowed four different wide receivers to score more than 14 PPR Fantasy points.
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Over the past two weeks, Thornton leads the Chiefs with a 21.9% target share. He is one of the few pass-catching options Patrick Mahomes has been able to trust with Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy missing. There is some talk of Worthy coming back in a limited role this week, but we aren't expecting much from Worthy yet. Thornton's 25-yard aDOT means he'll be very up and down, but if you need a big swing, he is the guy who could provide in a game against the Ravens, that the Chiefs should be chasing the score.
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Kirk's first game back was nothing to write home about, but there were some encouraging signs. He played almost two-thirds of the snaps in his debut and was second on the team with a 22% target share. Once he gets in sync with C.J. Stroud, he should be able to turn that type of volume into WR3 production on a regular basis.
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Stashes (WR Preview)
All it takes is a little bit of a splash from a rookie like Burden to get us excited. His snap share and opportunity share were both season-highs in Week 3. While you can't start him based on such a limited role, his 65-yard touchdown should be a reminder about just how much upside there is once he's a full-time player. This is exactly the type of player you want on your bench.
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WR Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Odunze is underpriced on FanDuel at $7,200. He is a top-12 wide receiver for me this week as the clear top option for an ascending Caleb Williams in a dome game in Las Vegas. Odunze is one of the few wide receivers who have scored at least 15 PPR Fantasy points in all three games this season, making him an excellent selection in cash games and tournaments alike.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
After reading the intro to the wide receiver preview, you had to know this was coming. Thomas is flat-out overpriced based on his production, but not based on his target volume. No one is going to want to play him. That makes him a great contrarian play. The 49ers defense continues to suffer injuries, with Nick Bosa's ACL being the most recent. This game has shootout potential if Lawrence and Thomas can get on the same page. I simply refuse to believe the Monstars stole all of the 22-year-old's talents.
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WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 3 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting wide receivers are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
