Fantasy Football Week 4 Tight End Preview: Projections, numbers to know, and more
Everything you need to know about tight end for Fantasy Football in Week 4
•
3 min read
It has been a disorienting start to the year at the tight end position. We lost George Kittle to a hamstring injury, Brock Bowers has seemingly been limited by a knee injury, and Travis Kelce just looks old. And many of the tight ends who have been better than them have done so in exceedingly strange ways.
It all started with rookie Harold Fannin in Week 1, earning nine targets, scoring 12 PPR Fantasy points, captivating many, including me. Since then, he has scored a total of 15.3 points. Hunter Henry went from 10.6 points in Week 1 to 1.9 in Week 2 to 29 in Week 3, while Tucker Kraft went 9.9, 24.4, then 5.9. Then Mark Andrews topped it all off with a 27.1-point outburst in Week 3 after scoring a combined 2.9 points in the first two weeks of the season. Are we having fun yet?
I hope we get some clarity on these players in Week 4, but there are a couple of guys I think we have more than enough on, Jake Ferguson and Juwan Johnson. I say that not just because they are TE1 and TE2 on the year. It's that they've done so in a way that at the very least suggests they will be must-start tight ends, maybe even elite.
Ferguson's outlook is obviously impacted by CeeDee Lamb's injury. That alone may have elevated him to this status, but there's more. On the season, he now has 10 more targets than George Pickens, 14 more receptions, and 19 more yards. When Lamb was healthy, Ferguson was the clear second option in this passing game. Now, I would expect him to lead the team in targets until Lamb gets back. And even after Lamb gets back, I would expect Ferguson to be a starter.
Johnson's ascension is both more surprising and more traditional. He got a new coach and his role just exploded. Johnson has 28 targets over three games, and it hasn't been sporadic at all. He has at least eight targets and 11 PPR points in every game. Kellen Moore has brought a fast-paced, pass-heavy offense to New Orleans, and there are more targets for the tight ends than the running backs. That's a huge philosophical shift from last year, and Johnson is the main beneficiary. I am not sure he has the same high-end potential Ferguson has, but I feel confident saying he is a rest of season starter, which is more than you can say about a lot of the guys above.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 4:
Week 4 TE Preview
TE Preview
Numbers to Know
- 18.6% -- Brock Bowers has an 18.6% target share the past two weeks. He had a 29% target share Week 1 before his knee injury. I still believe when Bowers gets right, he will be elite again, but that doesn't make the present feel any better.
- 4 -- Travis Kelce doesn't have more than four catches in any game. I don't really want to drop him until Rashee Rice gets back, but I understand why some will.
- 86.3% -- Juwan Johnson's 86% snap share this season leads all tight ends.
- 24.1% -- Tyler Warren's 24.1% target share is tied for third at the position. Don't get discouraged by one bad week.
- 5 -- Hunter Henry and Ja'Tavion Sanders lead all tight ends with five red zone targets. Henry has two touchdowns, Sanders has zero.
- 32.2% -- Nearly a third of Jake Browning's passes have gone to tight ends. That would be a disaster for Tee Higgins, but it could make Noah Fant streamable against the right matchup.
- 13 -- T.J. Hockenson has 13 targets on the season. Six of them came in Week 3 from Carson Wentz. I am not inclined to buy last week's performance with Jordan Addison coming back, but it is something to watch.
TE Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 4 Streamers (TE Preview)
You can't leave 29 Fantasy points on the waiver wire, no matter how sporadic his production. Henry was Drake Maye's top target last year as well, leading the Patriots in targets, receptions, and receiving yards on targets from Maye. The only thing he didn't have last year was the touchdowns. He already has as many from Maye this year as he had last year. The Patriots wide receiver room just has not developed in 2025 and that works out great for Henry.
| ||||||||||||||||||
I am sure after last week more people will drop Fannin than add him. I get it. Last week was really disappointing. But I still believe in the talent, he still has a 15% target share on an offense that may average 40 attempts per game, and I don't want to give up on a rookie I believed in back in April. If you want to start someone else this week, I get it. But don't forget what Mark Andrews just did to this defense last week.
| ||||||||||||||||||
TE Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I am not sure there is a safe tight end on the slate for cash games this week. The closest are Tyler Warren and Juwan Johnson. Neither one has a great matchup, but the Rams haven't been quite as stingy as the Bills. Warren has immense upside every week with his high target share and YAC potential.
| ||||||||||||||||||
Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I am probably going to play Bowers in tournament lineups every week until he pops, or at least until I run out of money. And there really isn't any data from this year to justify it. But he averaged more than 15 points per game last year and this year's Raiders offense is far more competent. Geno Smith is throwing for 277 yards per game and when Bowers is healthy a third of that could be his when he's healthy.
| ||||||||||||||||||
TE Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 4 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 3. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
