Fantasy Football Week 2 Tight End Preview: Projections, numbers to know, and more
Everything you need to know about tight end for Fantasy Football in Week 2
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3 min read
I try not to overreact to too much from Week 1, especially when it comes to efficiency or touchdowns. I make small volume-based adjustments, small changes to projected run/pass splits, and rush/receiving share based on Week 1 usage. For rookies and players, we had uncertainty about coming into the year; the adjustments come quicker and more drastically than they do with established veterans in steady situations.
Of course, if you know me, you know not overreacting to Harold Fannin Jr. is quite a difficult task. I will talk more about Fannin in the waiver wire section below, but he was even better than I expected in his first NFL game. The overreaction risk is what do you do with David Njoku? I am starting him in Week 1, and I will be racing to the waiver wire to pick him up if someone drops him.
Njoku was third on the team in routes run in Week 1, ahead of Fannin. He was second amongst pass catchers in snap share, again ahead of Fannin. he still had six targets in the game, even if he didn't make the best of them. Last year, Njoku scored 8.1 PPR Fantasy points in Week 6 and followed that up with 23.6 in Week 7. Later in the year, he had a miserable game with one catch for 19 yards on five targets. The next week, he saw 17 targets and scored 26.2 PPR Fantasy points. He had a third game below 10 PPR Fantasy points; he scored 17 the next week. You do not want to have him on your bench, or worse, drop him to the waiver wire, if that pattern holds.
As excited as I am about Fannin, do you remember how excited everyone was about Isaiah Likely after Week 1 last year? As you'll read below, that is not the path I expect this to take, but there is also one big difference: Joe Flacco may throw 10 more passes a game than Lamar Jackson. He threw 26 more last week. This is one of the offenses where there is room for a pair of tight ends to be startable. At least for Week 2, I am still starting Njoku over Fannin, and all but four other tight ends.
Here's everything else you need to know about tight end in Week 1:
Week 1 TE Preview
TE Preview
Numbers to Know
- 35% -- Dallas Goedert led all tight ends with a 35% target share last week.
- 21.7% -- Noah Fant tied Ja'Marr Chase for the team lead in target share at 21.7%. He ran more routes and played more snaps than Mike Gesicki. It probably only matters in deep leagues, but it is not nothing.
- 4.12 -- Brock Bowers averaged more than four yards per route run. If he hadn't gotten dinged up in the third quarter, we would be celebrating a 20-point week.
- 82.6% -- Travis Kelce still ran more than 80% of his team's routes, despite his low target total. I am starting him with confidence this week.
- 5.3% -- Lamar Jackson only threw one pass to a tight end in Week 1. A trend to watch for Week 2.
- 100% -- Juwan Johnson was the only tight end in Week 1 to run a route on 100% of his team's drop-backs.
- 19% -- Kyle Pitts' 19% target share and 83% route share was impressive. Watch the injury reports closely on Drake London and Darnell Mooney.
- 37.5% -- Tyler Warren was targeted on 37.5% of his routes. It's wheels up for this rookie; he's in my top five this week.
TE Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 2 Streamers (TE Preview)
In his first NFL game, Fannin led the Browns in targets, finished second in receptions, and third in yards. Oh yeah, he had a carry too. The Browns told us all summer they loved this guy, and they showed it in Week 1. There is some risk this was just a game plan thing, and David Njoku does probably cap Fannin's upside, but I only said probably. Njoku is 29 years old and in the last year of his contract. It is possible that Week 1 was only the beginning, and Fannin will be one of the focal points of the offense. I do have Juwan Johnson projected slightly higher than Fannin for Week 2, but I don't believe Johnson has as much long-term upside.
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I won't fault anyone for adding Johnson over Fannin. He was better in Week 1, and he doesn't have David Njoku on the team. But Johnson is also a 28-year-old who has never had more than 548 receiving yards in a season, so his Week 1 could be just as fluky. The more positive spin is that Johnson had 146 yards in his final games in 2024 and doesn't have to deal with either Taysom Hill or Foster Moreau for the time being.
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TE Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
The indication from Week 1 is that the Colts want to run their offense through their rookie tight end. His price on FanDuel is still just $5,500, meaning he will likely be the chalkiest play of the weekend. I don't think I want to give up that type of value. The Broncos are an elite defense, but they often see a high tight end target rate because teams are so scared of their cornerbacks. You don't need to get cute this week at tight end, just take the layup with Warren.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Last week, we nailed this play with Harold Fannin at a bargain price. This week I am going the other way. Kelce is overpriced based on his Week 1 usage, but I expect that usage to change. With Xavier Worthy out, expect Andy Reid to draw up a new game plan that focuses more on getting the ball to his future Hall of Famer. But again, this only for contrarian purposes. The smart play is just to play Tyler Warren.
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TE Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 1 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You can find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting tight ends are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
