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USATSI

This is our 12-part, pick-by-pick series where I, Dan Schneier, Adam Aizer, Jacob Gibbs, Thomas Shafer, and Jamey Eisenberg all took part in a six-person mock draft. We each built two of the 12 teams in this 14-round draft to show you a different strategy from each spot. As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, and FLEX (RB/WR/TE). Below are my results from picking fourth overall.

One of the biggest decisions Fantasy managers will have to make in their leagues is how they feel about Saquon Barkley. Well, at least in the first half of the draft. It may seem strange to think that there would be any concern about Barkley after his 2,283 yards and 15-touchdown season in 2024. The concern comes from all those touches it took him to produce those stats. Including the playoffs, Barkley had 482 touches, which is a big red flag if you look at historical precedence. Historically, if you have a back go over 400 touches in a season, you should expect at least a 20% decrease in production the following year. 

Of course, some of us, including me, made the case against Barkley last year because of the history of running backs changing teams later in their career. We looked pretty dumb. While I am still not comfortable taking Barkley with a top-three pick, I did take him at number four in this draft. I also took his top backup, Will Shipley, in Round 14, just in case. For what it's worth, Dave and Jamey wouldn't have taken him as early as I did. If you agree with them, then Jahmyr Gibbs is an excellent replacement who may not have as much risk as Barkley.

My draft from No. 4 overall:

1.04 Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles
2.09 Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals
3.04 Jayden Daniels, QB, Commanders
4.09 Terry McLaurin, WR, Commanders
5.04 D'Andre Swift, RB, Bears
6.09 Deebo Samuel, WR, Commanders
7.04 Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
8.09 Josh Downs, WR, Colts
9.04 Joe Mixon, RB, Texans
10.09 Luther Burden III, WR, Bears
11.04 Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans
12.09 Rico Dowdle, RB, Panthers
13.04 Tahj Brooks, RB, Bengals
14.09 Will Shipley, RB, Eagles

While the Barkley pick was a little risky, I am sure more people will have more concerns about my Washington Commanders stack. I will address Daniels more below, but McLaurin and Samuel are both values where I got them, according to my rankings. McLaurin is the clear number one and an excellent downfield threat. I expect Samuel to have a bounce-back season, feeding off of McLaurin and working in the underneath area of the field. This offense was missing a player like him last year, and he fits very well with what Kliff Kingsbury likes to do. I don't think Samuel's efficiency drop-off last year was indicative of his talent; I believe it was more related to his health.

One thing to notice about the structure of this team. Because I took an elite quarterback and an elite tight end, I only had one wide receiver in the first five rounds. Four of my next five picks were wide receivers. That is partially because I like that range of wide receiver this year. But it is more because once we get past Luther Burden in Round 10, I strongly prefer drafting handcuff running backs over taking fliers on low-end wide receivers. The wide receivers you find after Round 10 may turn into flexes, but the running backs available that late could turn into league winners with one injury. The best thing about Spears in Round 11 is you can start him out on the IR list and pick up another handcuff or a backup quarterback.

Favorite pick: D'Andre Swift

Swift was one of my favorite picks before the preseason. Nothing has happened to discourage that. He was used as a workhorse back in the preseason, the backups have been hurt, and the team, as of August 27th, the team has done nothing to add talent behind Swift. There will be some kind of committee, most likely, and I wouldn't be surprised if they add someone to back him up before the season starts. Even so, he has never been worse than RB24 on a per-game basis, and he was a high-end RB2 the last time he was with Ben Johnson. There is top 12 upside for Swift this year, and you rarely find that in Round 5.

Pick I do regret: Joe Mixon

I will keep this short. We did this draft before Mixon was left on the PUP. He will miss at least the first four games of the season, and I would not draft him in Round 9 today. I would be happy to take him in Round 11 and do still think that if he is healthy for the second half of the season, he has league-winning potential. Like Spears, you can start him in an IR spot if your league has one.

Player who could make or break my team: Jayden Daniels

Daniels is my QB1 this year, which helps to explain why I am perfectly fine stacking him with his top two wide receivers. I expect him to top 4,000 yards passing, run for 800 yards, and produce more than 30 total touchdowns. I believe his upside dwarfs those numbers. But I will acknowledge that drafting like I did brings with it a lot of risk. If Jayden Daniels misses time, then two or three of my first six picks could be worthless. This all comes down to your risk tolerance. If you are shooting for the moon and think you are getting good value, stacking a quarterback with his wide receivers can make all the sense in the world. If you would rather play it safe, it is probably not for you.