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USATSI

Average Draft Position is going to change a lot over the next several weeks when most Fantasy drafts take place. But after the first week of preseason games -- Aug. 13 to be exact -- I'm using the CBS Sports ADP to determine the players I'm avoiding in Busts 3.0.

If the ADP changes, then I'll alter my evaluation on these players, and several of them I will draft if they fall to the right spot. But, for now, I believe these players are being drafted too soon, and I will avoid them at their current ADP.

Here are Busts 3.0:

Patrick Mahomes
Saquon Barkley
Breece Hall
Aaron Jones
Joe Mixon
Terry McLaurin
D.J. Moore
Zay Flowers
Chris Godwin
Mark Andrews

Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes
ADP: 48.3 (QB6)

I'm hoping for a bounce-back season for Mahomes, who has averaged fewer than 21 Fantasy points per game for two years in a row. And I even have him ranked as my No. 6 quarterback this season. But the earliest I would draft him is Round 6, and he's going in Round 4 based on his ADP. Now, we don't know what his ADP will look like once we find out about a Rashee Rice suspension, so keep that in mind. But I don't want to draft Mahomes with a top 50 overall selection in a one-quarterback league, especially if he doesn't have Rice for any extended period of time this year.


Running backs

Saquon Barkley
ADP: 3.0 (RB2)

I made the case for Barkley as a bust candidate in February in Busts 1.0 and again in Busts 2.0 in May. At that point, we didn't know his ADP, but it was easy to assume he would get drafted in the top-five overall picks. Here we are in August, and he's going in the top three as the second running back off the board behind Bijan Robinson. Barkley just had 436 carries and 482 total touches in 2024 in helping the Eagles win the Super Bowl, and that's a lot of work for a 28-year-old running back. Additionally, the history of 2,000-yard rushers isn't great the following season. Of the previous eight to accomplish this feat, all of them declined in production by at least 562 rushing yards, with six of them dropping 871 rushing yards or more. The earliest I would draft Barkley is No. 8 overall, and he's RB5 in my rankings.

Breece Hall
ADP: 30.8 (RB14)

We know the Jets want to run the ball, but there could be as many as four players in the mix to help the cause with Hall, Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis, and Justin Fields. At running back, Hall could be headed for a three-way split in touches, with Allen getting goal-line opportunities and Davis seeing work in the passing game. I still expect Hall to be the No. 1 running back for the Jets, but he's also coming off a down season in 2024, where he had four games of 10.5 PPR points or less in his final nine outings. And I don't think he's going over 50 receptions for the third season in a row with Fields at quarterback, which caps his upside in PPR. I have Hall ranked as a No. 2 running back in all leagues, but I'm not drafting him in Round 3. The earliest I would draft Hall is the end of Round 4.

Aaron Jones
ADP: 50.6 (RB20)

The Vikings have made it clear they want Jones to share touches with Jordan Mason this season, and that scenario could be tough for Jones at his current ADP. Jones set career highs in touches (306), carries (255), and offensive snaps (700) in his first season with the Vikings in 2024. He played all 18 games with the playoffs, even while nursing hip, rib, and quadriceps injuries, and had the most rushing yards (1,138) and second-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) in his career. He averaged 14.7 PPR points per game. It was great, but I'm skeptical of him repeating that performance in 2025. The earliest I would draft Jones this season is Round 6 in all leagues.

Joe Mixon
ADP: 58.3 (RB23)

It's been over two weeks since we found out Mixon could miss extended time with his foot injury, and he's currently on the active/non-football injury list. We hope he can return in time for Week 1, but that's uncertain. Still, Fantasy managers continue to draft Mixon as if he's going to be fine with an ADP in Round 5, but the earliest I would select him is Round 7. Last season, Mixon was awesome when he averaged 17.2 PPR points per game, and he dominated touches at 20.1 per game. But he's 29, injured, and potentially sharing touches with Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks. The Texans also have the worst offensive line in the NFL coming into the season, according to Pro Football Focus. This could be a long year for Mixon, and you don't want to reach for him in Round 5 as of now.

Wide receivers

Terry McLaurin
ADP: 47.0 (WR19)

McLaurin is coming off a career-best 15.8 PPR points per game in 2024 in his first season with Jayden Daniels. McLaurin scored a career-high 13 touchdowns to go with 82 catches for 1,096 yards on 117 targets. It's the fifth year in a row he's topped 1,000 receiving yards with at least 77 catches. But over that span, he's never scored more than five touchdowns, and there should be concern his touchdowns will regress. You also have the worry about his hold-in, and the recent history of players dealing with contracts and missing practice time hasn't been good (Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor in 2023 and CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk in 2024). And now you have a quality second receiver on the Commanders in Deebo Samuel to steal targets. I'm not drafting McLaurin until Round 6, and he could continue to slide if he remains out of practice.

D.J. Moore
ADP: 53.7 (WR22)

I would not be surprised if Moore is the best receiver for the Bears. I would not be surprised if Rome Odunze is the best receiver for the Bears. I would not be surprised if Luther Burden III is the best receiver for the Bears. I would not be surprised if ... you get the point. This receiving corps has a lot of talented options, including rookie tight end Colston Loveland, and new coach Ben Johnson has an open canvas to lean on whoever he wants. Now, I do believe Moore will lead Chicago in targets, but I don't expect it to be by a wide margin. And if you want pieces of the Bears offense because you believe in Johnson and an improved Caleb Williams, then just draft Odunze in Round 8 or Burden in Round 14 based on their ADP. I don't expect Moore to be worth his price in Round 5.

Zay Flowers
ADP: 65.7 (WR25)

For the past two seasons, Flowers has averaged 12.9 and 12.3 PPR points per game. That's quality production, but he was the No. 34 PPR receiver in 2024. He had 116 targets for 74 catches, 1,059 yards, and four touchdowns, and Baltimore just added DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, kept Mark Andrews, and remains committed to Derrick Henry. Lamar Jackson doesn't need to pepper one receiver with targets to be an MVP candidate, and Fantasy managers should treat Flowers as just a standout No. 3 receiver. Instead, he continues to get drafted as a borderline starter in two-receiver leagues, and that's a mistake. I have Flowers ranked as the No. 34 PPR receiver, and I have no intention of moving him much higher than that this season.

Chris Godwin
ADP: 76.8 (WR32)

I started the offseason with Mike Evans as a potential bust candidate due to his age (32) and all the mouths to feed in Tampa Bay. But it's time to worry about Godwin, who remains out with the ankle injury he suffered in Week 7 last year. There's a chance Godwin might not play in Week 1, and he could struggle to regain his role as the target leader for the Buccaneers because of Evans, rookie Emeka Egbuka, and Jalen McMillan. I still expect Godwin to be a prominent part of Tampa Bay's offense and be a top target for Baker Mayfield. But his production could be limited, especially if he's still not recovered from last year's injury. At this point, I'd rather draft Egbuka over Godwin, and the earliest I would select him is Round 8.

Tight ends

Mark Andrews
ADP: 77.2 (TE6)

It wouldn't shock me if Andrews went back to being more than just a touchdown-or-bust Fantasy tight end, and he averaged at least 12.4 PPR points per game in each of the five years prior to 2024. But last year, he went from a featured part of Baltimore's offense to just an end-zone threat with only 69 targets for the season, which is 4.1 per game. Thankfully, he scored a career-high 11 touchdowns, which is what he combined to score in the previous two seasons. He should benefit from Isaiah Likely (foot) potentially out to start the season, but Andrews could also lose targets to new addition DeAndre Hopkins, along with Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman. And when Likely is healthy, he could have a big role, which was the expectation prior to him getting hurt. I still like Andrews as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, but I'm not drafting him in Round 7 based on his ADP.