2025 Fantasy Football Busts 4.0: Why Saquon Barkley heads up Jamey Eisenberg's do not draft list

It's time for Busts 4.0, which is my final list of bust candidates for 2025. And I have a few qualifiers for this round of busts, which is based mostly on their average draft position on CBS Sports.

For starters, I hate the value for most of the quarterbacks, especially Josh Allen (ADP of 16.5) and Lamar Jackson (18.2). Those are my top two quarterbacks, but I would not draft them in Round 2. And if you're going to reach for a quarterback, I'd recommend Jackson over Allen since Jackson (30.1 Fantasy points per game) was significantly better than Allen (25.6) last year.

I'd rather wait for those quarterbacks until Round 3 in a one-quarterback league. Otherwise, I'm going to draft a quarterback much later with guys like Dak Prescott (ADP of 82.4), Kyler Murray (84.1), Justin Fields (116.5) or Drake Maye (129.1), among others.

Are those guys as good as Jackson or Allen? No. But this is about value, and I want a wide receiver, running back or even a tight end (Brock Bowers or Trey McBride) where those quarterbacks are being drafted.

I'm also going to ignore the current ADP for some players in questionable situations like Joe Mixon (ADP of 79.7) and Quinshon Judkins (112.4). Mixon would clearly be a bust if drafted in this range, but he's at best a late-round flier following the news that he's out for the first four games of the season with a foot injury -- if not longer. And we don't know when Judkins will sign his rookie contract, so you also can't draft him until well into the double digit rounds.

I've touched on several of these players already in the first three versions of busts, but we've added a few guys to the group and updated some outlooks. Again, this is based on the CBS ADP, but if these players fall on Draft Day then I'll gladly draft them at a reduced price. 

Busts 4.0

Projections powered by Sportsline

Saquon Barkley RB PHI Philadelphia • #26 Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 6th RB RNK 3rd PROJ PTS 316.4 SOS 5 ADP 1 2024 Stats RUYDS 2005 REC 33 REYDS 278 TD 15 FPTS/G 22.2 ADP: 3.2. You've read this argument against Barkley from me since February in Busts 1.0, but he remains a top-three overall pick and the No. 2 running back behind Bijan Robinson in ADP. I still like Barkley as a first-round pick, but I would not draft him in this spot. Barkley just had 436 carries and 482 total touches in 2024 in helping the Eagles win the Super Bowl, and that's a lot of work for a 28-year-old running back. Additionally, the history of 2,000-yard rushers isn't great the following season. Of the previous eight to accomplish this feat, all of them declined in production by at least 562 rushing yards, with six of them dropping 871 rushing yards or more. The earliest I would draft Barkley is No. 7 overall, and he's RB4 in my rankings. We're clearly nitpicking here, but I'm worried about Barkley's outlook for this year.

Alvin Kamara RB NO New Orleans • #41 Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 43rd RB RNK 18th PROJ PTS 248.4 SOS 28 ADP 31 2024 Stats RUYDS 950 REC 68 REYDS 543 TD 8 FPTS/G 19 ADP: 29.7. I like Kamara as a No. 2 PPR running back this season, but the earliest I would draft him is the middle of Round 4. I can't draft him in Round 3, and there's risk with him on a bad team and, potentially, losing work in the passing game. The latter is the scary part because Kamara has saved his production almost every season with his reception total, which has been at least 68 catches in six of eight years in the NFL. But new coach Kellen Moore doesn't have the best history of throwing to his running backs, and kudos to my colleague Heath Cummings for pointing this out. When Moore took over as the offensive coordinator in Dallas in 2019, Ezekiel Elliott went from 77 catches in 2018 to 54 and dropped from 5.1 receptions per game to 3.4. Moore was the offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2023, and Austin Ekeler went from 107 receptions in 2022 to 51, although he played three fewer games, and dropped from 6.3 receptions per game to 3.6. And, last year with the Eagles, Barkley went from 41 catches with the Giants in 2023 to 33 last year, a fall from 2.9 receptions per game to 2.1. Kamara has scored six rushing touchdowns or fewer in four seasons in a row, and the Saints could be the worst offense in the NFL with Spencer Rattler at quarterback. And Kamara is 30 now. Please don't reach for him on Draft Day.

Breece Hall RB NYJ N.Y. Jets • #20 Age: 24 • Experience: 4 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 50th RB RNK 21st PROJ PTS 220.1 SOS 32 ADP 39 2024 Stats RUYDS 876 REC 57 REYDS 483 TD 8 FPTS/G 15.1 ADP: 40.9. I like that Hall's ADP is falling, but even Round 4 seems too expensive to draft a running back that will likely be in a committee with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, along with a rushing quarterback in Justin Fields. Allen could steal goal-line opportunities from Hall, and Davis could see work in the passing game. I still expect Hall to be the No. 1 running back for the Jets, but he's also coming off a down season in 2024 where he had four games of 10.5 PPR points or less in his final nine outings. And I don't think he's going over 50 receptions for the third season in a row with Fields at quarterback, which caps his upside in PPR. I have Hall ranked as a No. 2 running back in all leagues, but I'm not drafting him until Round 5.

Terry McLaurin WR WAS Washington • #17 Age: 30 • Experience: 7 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 46th WR RNK 21st PROJ PTS 240.6 SOS 23 ADP 45 2024 Stats REC 82 TAR 117 REYDS 1096 TD 13 FPTS/G 15.8 ADP: 46.6. I'm glad McLaurin got his contract extension done prior to the start of the season, but I'm still concerned about his Fantasy outlook this year. I would not draft him in Round 4 in the majority of leagues. McLaurin is coming off a career-best 15.8 PPR points per game in 2024 in his first season with Jayden Daniels. McLaurin scored a career-high 13 touchdowns to go with 82 catches for 1,096 yards on 117 targets. It's the fifth year in a row he's topped 1,000 receiving yards with at least 77 catches. But over that span, he's never scored more than five touchdowns, and there should be concern his touchdowns will regress. You also have the worry about his hold-in during training camp, and the recent history of players dealing with contracts and missing practice time hasn't been good (Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor in 2023 and CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk in 2024). And now you have a quality second receiver on the Commanders in Deebo Samuel to steal targets. I'm not drafting McLaurin until the end of Round 5 at the earliest in most leagues.

DJ Moore WR CHI Chicago • #2 Age: 28 • Experience: 8 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 60th WR RNK 28th PROJ PTS 254 SOS 32 ADP 57 2024 Stats REC 98 TAR 140 REYDS 966 TD 6 FPTS/G 14 ADP: 53.7. The Bears receiving corps is beyond crowded, especially if Olamide Zaccheaus is going to earn targets along with Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. They won't all play at the same time, but Moore might not dominate targets like we've seen for the past two seasons with an average of 138 per year. New coach Ben Johnson has an open canvas to lean on whoever he wants in the passing game, which could come at Moore's expense. Now, I do believe this passing game should improve under Johnson and with a better Caleb Williams in his second year. But if you want pieces of this receiving corps then just draft Odunze (ADP of 98.2) in Round 8 or Burden (153.0) with a late-round pick. I don't expect Moore to be worth his price in Round 5.

Aaron Jones RB MIN Minnesota • #33 Age: 30 • Experience: 9 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 72nd RB RNK 26th PROJ PTS 211.6 SOS 15 ADP 54 2024 Stats RUYDS 1138 REC 51 REYDS 408 TD 7 FPTS/G 14.2 ADP: 57.5. I can't draft Jones in Round 5 if he's going to be in a timeshare with Jordan Mason, which is something the Vikings have made clear throughout the offseason and through training camp. Last season, Jones set career highs in touches (306), carries (255) and offensive snaps (700) in his first season with the Vikings. He played all 18 games with the playoffs, even while nursing hip, rib and quadriceps injuries, and had the most rushing yards (1,138) and second-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) in his career. He averaged 14.7 PPR points per game. It was great, but I'm skeptical of him repeating that performance in 2025, especially if Mason makes this a 50-50 split and works at the goal line. The earliest I would draft Jones this season is late Round 6 in all leagues.

Zay Flowers WR BAL Baltimore • #4 Age: 25 • Experience: 3 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 71st WR RNK 38th PROJ PTS 215.6 SOS 7 ADP 65 2024 Stats REC 74 TAR 116 REYDS 1059 TD 4 FPTS/G 12.3 ADP: 66.4. It appears like Isaiah Likely (foot) will be ready to play early in the season, which means there's another mouth to feed in Baltimore's offense. And Lamar Jackson has shown he doesn't need an alpha receiver to succeed, so he'll continue to spread the ball around to Flowers, Rashod Bateman, DeAndre Hopkins, Mark Andrews and Likely and be fine. Flowers has the talent to be a standout Fantasy receiver, but it probably won't happen in this version of the Ravens offense. For the past two seasons, Flowers has averaged 12.9 and 12.3 PPR points per game. That's quality production, but he was the No. 34 PPR receiver in 2024. He had 116 targets for 74 catches, 1,059 yards and four touchdowns, and Fantasy managers should treat Flowers as just a good No. 3 receiver. Instead, he continues to get drafted as a borderline starter in two-receiver leagues, which is a mistake. The earliest I would draft Flowers is Round 7 in most formats.

Mark Andrews TE BAL Baltimore • #89 Age: 30 • Experience: 8 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 106th TE RNK 11th PROJ PTS 189.1 SOS 24 ADP 64 2024 Stats REC 55 TAR 69 REYDS 673 TD 11 FPTS/G 11.1 ADP: 78.9. I'm curious to see where Andrews will land with his ADP after Labor Day weekend now that we know Likely avoided short-term IR and can play early in the year. As of now, Andrews is the No. 7 tight end off the board, and I would not draft him that high or in Round 7. I'd rather have a few guys being drafted after him, including David Njoku, Tyler Warren and Tucker Kraft. Last year, Andrews went from a featured part of Baltimore's offense to just an end-zone threat with only 69 targets for the season, which is 4.1 per game. Thankfully, he scored a career-high 11 touchdowns, which is what he combined to score in the previous two seasons. The Ravens were talking about Likely being a breakout candidate this season prior to his foot injury, and Baltimore added Hopkins to the receiving corps along with Flowers and Bateman. I still like Andrews as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end this season, but I'm not drafting him until Round 9 at the earliest in PPR.

Kaleb Johnson RB PIT Pittsburgh • #20 Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 90th RB RNK 32nd PROJ PTS 145.3 SOS 10 ADP 71 ADP: 83.0. I hope Johnson can perform like the lead running back for the Steelers this season because I liked the landing spot for him in the third round of the NFL Draft out of Iowa. But based on the preseason, he could be playing behind Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell, mostly because the veterans are better in pass protection, and Aaron Rodgers needs that more than ever at this point in his career. Johnson will hopefully take over as the main option in the backfield on first and second down as the season goes on, but Warren appears to have that role locked down heading into Week 1. And Warren and Gainwell will likely split the work on obvious passing situations. Johnson should not be drafted before Round 8 in PPR.

Michael Pittman WR IND Indianapolis • #11 Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs. Fantasy Breakdown (PPR) OVERALL RNK 117th WR RNK 50th PROJ PTS 211.9 SOS 6 ADP 107 2024 Stats REC 69 TAR 111 REYDS 808 TD 3 FPTS/G 10.4 ADP: 96.3. When the Colts made the decision to start Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson, I was actually excited to draft Pittman this season. But when I looked at his ADP, I couldn't believe that Pittman was being drafted in Round 8. And, even worse, that he's going well ahead of Josh Downs (ADP of 128.8). There are also plenty of receivers being selected after Pittman that I would rather have, including Rome Odunze, Matthew Golden, Chris Olave and Keon Coleman, to name a few. Pittman should rebound from his disastrous 2024 campaign when he averaged just 10.4 PPR points per game considering how poorly Richardson played, and Pittman dealt with a back injury. But it's not like Jones is a savior, and Pittman will have to fight for targets with Downs and rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who could be a star. The earliest I would draft Pittman is Round 10 in most leagues.