Things change pretty quickly with pitchers. A few weeks ago, Jacob Misiorowski looked like the unchallenged and unchallengeable No. 1 pitcher in Fantasy. He had made a huge leap with his command and somehow improved his already eye-popping stuff and looked like the obvious top pitcher in the league.
And now he genuinely looks like one of the toughest pitchers in the league to rank. The turn started when Misiorowski had his final start of the first half skipped due to vague concerns about "fatigue," which coincided with some reporting from MLB.com indicating that the Brewers might "require some creativity in the coming months" to limit Misiorowski's workload and keep him fresh for what the Brewers are hoping will be a long postseason push with him at the top of the rotation. And then when he made his first start after a 13-day layoff to open the second half, he was pulled after just four innings and 65 pitches.
The question coming out of that start is whether that was planned – an effort to build Misiorowski back up after the extra time off – or a reaction to how Misiorowski's start was going. Manager Pat Murphy did note after the game that Misiorowski's mechanics were a bit off and he was struggling to get into his legs during his delivery, especially late in the game, which affected his fastball and led to the early hook. By and large, I think that was a positive sign. Or at least, it wasn't a negative sign, because it wasn't just a sign that the Brewers were going into the start proactively looking to limit Misiorowski's innings.
But it is still an unanswered question, and given how important Misiorowski has been to Fantasy players' seasons, it's a pretty significant one. If they treat him more or less like a normal starter, he'd be my No. 1 pitcher for Fantasy the rest of the way. Even if they committed to treating him like more or less a normal starter but with the occasional early hook or extra day of rest – think the way the Pirates managed Paul Skenes last season or how the Braves generally handle Chris Sale – he'd probably be in that top tier of starters and may still be No. 1.
But that first start out of the break does hint at a more worrying possibility, which is that the Brewers might treat him more like the White Sox treated Garrett Crochet in 2024 in the second half. He started more or less every fifth (or sixth) day, but was basically limited to four innings and 60 or so pitches every time out. Misiorowski could still be useful in that instance, but it would be in a significantly diminished capacity – and in Crochet's case, it ended up wrecking his season. Pitchers are creatures of habit and professional baseball players are often almost pathologically competitive, so asking any pitcher to change their approach and give it anything less than 100% effort can derail them.
I'm not saying that's likely to happen with Misiorowski. At this point, I'd say it's extremely unlikely that the Brewers go in that direction. But I can't discount it entirely, and the possibility that he just isn't 100% healthy right now and they are managing that can't be totally written off either. Because of that, I moved Misiorowski down to SP5 in my rankings update – still a top-24 player in the Trade Values, but not the top-10 overall guy he was prior to this whole affair.
I bring this all up because Scott White wrote an excellent column this week focusing on Misiorowski and 19 other pitchers who could be facing innings limits the rest of the way. There's a lot of speculation in any such discussion, but Scott's a smart analyst who put in a lot of work to identify pitchers whose value could be impacted down the stretch, and it includes some pretty significant names like Chase Burns and Braxton Ashcraft. It might be time to try to sell high on some of those names.
Pre-game Lineup Card
Here's what you might have missed from CBSSports.com's MLB coverage in recent days:
Week 18 Trade Values! My rankings have been updated for both H2H points and Roto leagues for Week 18. Go check out the latest changes and get some guidelines for a deal as we near the halfway point of the season.
Prospects Report. Which prospects are still in line to make an impact in the second half?
IL Stash rankings. Scott White ranks the 50 players most likely to be stashed in Fantasy, starting with the must-stash players like Aaron Judge and Nick Kurtz.
Deadline buy or sell. Dayn Perry breaks down what seven teams on the playoff bubble should do at the deadline.
Hitting the Wire
The top waiver-wire targets from Thursday's action:
Kade Anderson, SP, Mariners (58%) – The call-up feels increasingly inevitable, and not just because Anderson has arguably been the most effective pitcher in professional baseball at any level this season. Ken Rosenthal reported Thursday that the Mariners are open to trading breakout pitcher Emerson Hancock, a 27-year-old with a 3.16 ERA and four years of club control left after this season. It's one thing to try to dump Luis Castillo's salary, but you don't move Hancock unless you think you have a ready-made replacement for him. Whether it is Castillo or Hancock, I think the writing is on the wall for an Anderson promotion, straight from Double-A, where he has a 1.36 ERA in 72.2 innings in his first season as a pro. His stuff isn't quite as dominant as those numbers might make you think, but his pitchability and command help the whole profile play up to the point where he is arguably the best pitching prospect in baseball right now, and he might already be ready to be a difference maker for Fantasy.
Ian Seymour, RP, Rays (69%) – I think Seymour is just a good pitcher. I know there have been some bumps in the road lately, but he righted the ship Thursday by limiting the Blue Jays to two runs over six innings in a bulk relief appearance. He struck out seven while generating 12 swinging strikes, 11 of them between his four-seamer and changeup, which remain the best part of his arsenal. Yes, the four-seamer comes in at just around 91-92 mph, which might leave him with a slimmer margin for error than some other pitchers when his command isn't at its best. But batters don't see the ball well, and while he has just a 4.22 ERA since his switch to the rotation, he also has a 1.01 WHIP with 53 strikeouts in 42.2 innings in that span. The ERA will come down and I have a lot of confidence that Seymour will be a viable starting Fantasy option the rest of the way.
Ty France, 1B, Padres (17%) – France's roster rate is shockingly low for how good he has been this season. I get being skeptical, but jeez, he homered yet again Thursday and now has 10 over his past 26 games to go along with 24 RBI and a .323 batting average. Sure, he won't sustain that, but plenty of unsustainable players catch on a lot more quickly than France has. It's hard to be relevant at first base, it's true, but France has done enough to break through.
Joe Musgrove, SP, Padres (27%) – We haven't heard much about Musgrove's recovery from Tommy John surgery since some vague-sounding setbacks earlier in the season, but it finally sounds like he's making some progress. He's been throwing off a mound and generating positive reviews within the organization, according to the San Diego Union Tribune, and both he and Nick Pivetta (66% rostered, also recovering from an elbow issue) could begin their rehab assignments in the next few weeks. The hope will be for both to get through four rehab starts while working up to five innings, and they could be back by mid-to-late August if all goes well. There could still be limitations beyond that, but if Musgrove and Pivetta are healthy, they could both make an impact down the stretch.
Tyler Locklear, 1B, Diamondbacks (3%) – Locklear was, at one point, a pretty interesting prospect, but that was a pretty long time ago, and expectations are rightly pretty low for him this time around. This is one for NL-only leagues right now, but he did homer for the first time Thursday, a 111 mph shot that shows some real underlying pop here. He has started three of five games since being promoted, but was hitting .313/.394/.502 in Triple-A before his promotion, so maybe there is still some upside here.
James Triantos, 2B, Cubs (3%) – Like Locklear, this one is only worth noting for people in very deep leagues, given how unlikely it is that Triantos is going to be anything close to an everyday player for the Cubs, despite some defensive versatility. Of course, for any young player blocked on a would-be contender like the Cubs, the next few weeks could dramatically change his outlook, because Triantos is one of several pretty obvious trade-bait candidates for the Cubs. The 23-year-old has hit .306/.344/.440 with seven homers and 18 steals in Triple-A this season and could be a pretty interesting Fantasy option with his combination of plus contact skills, speed, and non-zero power. He only matters for NL-only leagues, but he could be an interesting add in 15-team leagues if the Cubs move him by the deadline.
Three Up, Three Down
Three big performances that have players trending up, and three that have the arrow pointing in the opposite direction.
Three Up
Gavin William put together one of his best starts ever
It's the starts like Thursday's that make the rest of the time extra frustrating for Williams. We know how good he can be, and he reminded us of it yet again by striking out 11 over seven two-hit, shutout innings against the Twins. He had an immaculate inning (nine pitches, three strikeouts) along the way to what is now his third straight 11-strikeout game, the first pitcher since Blake Snell in 2023 to pull that feat off. Of course, his previous start to this one saw him tagged for five runs in six innings, and even after this one he has a 3.78 ERA for the season and a 4.86 ERA in nine starts since the start of June. He's better than the latter mark, but the former might not be a bad place to set your expectations moving forward. As long as you don't convince yourself the good starts are who Williams really is, I think you'll be happy to have him around.
Steven Kwan looks like himself again
Given that Kwan is still just 28, I never quite bought into the idea that he was just totally washed up. To be sure, he was terrible for several months to open the season, but players at his age generally don't just lose it overnight like that, especially when their fielding and defensive metrics are largely unchanged (indicating there wasn't a sudden, irreversible loss of athleticism). Which is to say, I'm not exactly surprised that Kwan is playing a whole lot better lately. He had two hits Thursday, his sixth multi-hit game in his past eight to push his line to .426/.523/.556 in the month of July. He's back in the leadoff spot over the past five games, too, so the upside is back in his profile if he can keep this up. I think Kwan should basically be rostered in all leagues after this run.
Brandon Pfaadt is finding success
Pfaadt isn't the same pitcher who flamed out of the Diamondbacks rotation earlier this season, and the returns have been pretty good since his return in late June. After a quality start with two runs in six innings Thursday against the Cardinals, he now has a 2.33 ERA in five starts … and I hope the fact that I'm writing about him here rather than as a waiver-wire target gives away that I definitely don't buy it. Pfaadt has moved about a foot over to the first base side since his return from Triple-A, as Lance Brozdowski noted a few weeks ago, and he continues to make tweaks to his pitch mix, throwing his cutter more in this one and his four-seamer more often in general. But he also isn't missing many bats, with just seven swinging strikes and one strikeout (to two walks) in Thursday's start, and just 14 strikeouts in 27 innings since his return. I wasn't much of a believer in Pfaadt's back when he was a pretty good strikeout pitcher, and I can't buy in when he's looking like one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball. It's been a good run; this was a great start. But I'm not adding him outside of very deep leagues.
Three Down
Technically, it's only two today. There were only five games on the schedule, so pickings were slim; what can I say?
Troy Melton is looking a little shakier
I'm not losing faith in Melton. But with how excited I was about him around the end of June and early July, I have to acknowledge that some warts have shown up lately. His velocity was down a bit Thursday against the Royals, and that stretch where I started to really buy in coincided with a velocity spike that saw Melton sitting around 97 mph. He was around 96 in this one, which should still be okay, but would constitute at least a mild downgrade. The other concern here is that Melton walked four in five innings, his second start in a row with four walks. The good news is he only allowed three runs in 10.2 innings across those two starts with 14 strikeouts, so he has continued to find ways to get outs even when he isn't at his sharpest. So, like I said, I'm not losing faith. Just flagging some concerns that are, at this point, pretty mild. Let's hope they don't become anything more than that.
Michael McGreevy struggled
The bottom is going to drop out for McGreevy, whose ERA is still down at 3.07 despite giving up four runs in 6.1 innings of work Thursday against the Diamondbacks. He has managed to outrun his peripherals for months, and when you have good control and a great defense behind you, you can definitely put together stretches where you limit runs and pitch deep into games, as McGreevy has generally done. But that 3.00-ish ERA is backed up by a 5.35 xERA, and I just don't think a great defense is enough to make that kind of gap sustainable. McGreevy's other peripherals are in the 4.10 to 4.50-ish range, which is better, but still pretty uninspiring from a pitcher who has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. It's fine to keep him around for now (especially in points leagues), but I'd bet on McGreevy's roster rate dipping below 50% before the end of the season.
Extra Innings
Shane Bieber still isn't quite there
That's two quality starts in a row for Bieber, who limited the Rays to just one run on three hits Thursday. So why is he down here rather in the "Three Up" section? Well, it's because I don't really buy how he's finding this success. Bieber's career has been defined by three things when he has been successful in the past: Excellent control, lots of strikeouts, both of which help him overcome issues with damage on contact. Well, he struck out just three Thursday and has just one start with more than four strikeouts in six starts since coming back from the IL. I'm not saying Bieber has totally lost the ability to miss bats – his curveball especially still looks like a weapon and generated three of the just eight whiffs he had Thursday. But he still has just 6.5 K/9 (and 3.5 BB/9) for the season with a 5.81 FIP to go along with his 4.70 ERA, so I definitely need to see more before I'm ready to trust. Especially against a tough matchup like the one he is about to face with the Nationals next week.
