getty-konnor-griffin-pirates.jpg

As it turns out, we only had to wait about a week for Konnor Griffin to get the call. I guess he really needed those five games at Triple-A to finish his development. 

Jokes aside, Griffin is here, and he'll make his debut for the Pirates in their home opener Friday afternoon. Griffin will end up making his debut about 20 days before his 20th birthday, and if you knew nothing else about him other than that he was making his MLB debut as a 19-year-old, you'd have a pretty good idea of how good Griffin is going to be. Just take a look at the list of the hitters to debut before their 20th birthday over the past 20 seasons: 

It's not a guarantee that Griffin will be a superstar based on that list, but everyone here at least had a long career. And none of those guys were called up at the start of the season with the expectation they'd be playing a big part in their team's plans. The Pirates are treating Griffin like he's a generational prospect, and we should be listening.

Not that Griffin is some kind of secret. He was one of the most hyped players in the league this spring, and his routinely picked inside of the top 150 or higher. Some were surely scared off by concerns that he would be held down in the minors for a while, but anyone who took the chance was rewarded almost immediately.

Today's (second) newsletter is going to be a bit different than usual, and not just because of Griffin's promotion. Thursday is one of the least active days of the MLB calendar, with just three games set to be played. So we won't be doing our typical Friday morning recap of the news and notes – anything big we miss will get covered in Monday's weekend recap, instead. Today, we're looking into what to expect from Griffin, and then we're going to look at five early-season rankings movers – four up, and one down – from my first rankings update of the season. 

Let's get to Griffin first: 

What to expect from Griffin

griffin-getty-1.png
Getty Images

Griffin steps onto the field immediately as one of the best athletes in the majors. We're talking about a guy built like an NFL tight end with plus-plus raw power and plus-plus speed, a combination few in the majors can match. What kind of comps are we talking about here? Last season, there were eight players in the majors who ranked in the 90th percentile or better in both max exit velocity and sprint speed: 

I think that's the kind of company Griffin could keep. Of course, there's a fairly wide spread of actual production in that group, from the Fantasy superstars like Witt, Carroll, De La Cruz, and Rodriguez to the "interesting-but-frustrating" types like Robert and Cruz. But this gives a good idea of the kind of potential Griffin has, and honestly, it might just be representative of the possible range of outcomes.

On the low end, I could see something like Cruz's 2025, where his contact skills led to an abysmal batting average, but his physical tools allowed him to still put up 20 homers and 38 steals. There are certainly lower-end outcomes possible here – including that he's just so overwhelmed that he gets sent down after a few weeks – but if Cruz is good enough to hang around, I think it'll be at least as something like what Cruz managed last season.

And the high-end outcomes? Well, he's making his MLB debut as a 19-year-old coming off a season where he hit 21 homers and stole 65 bases while hitting .333 across three levels. You can't really put a ceiling on how good this guy could be, especially with a skill set so well suited for Fantasy. We're talking about a talent level that could make him a top-six option at shortstop by the summer months. It's unfair to put those kinds of expectations on any player, but Griffin has the upside to make it happen.

That's not the likeliest outcome. The likeliest outcome is probably something like Bobby Witt's rookie season, where he was a below average major-league hitter, putting up a .254/.294/.428 line. But Witt was a top-30 hitter in Fantasy for Roto that season because he had 20 homers and 30 steals. 

I won't be ranking Griffin that way, at least not initially. Because there are inherently wide error bars for any player making their debut, but especially for one as young as Griffin. We have no idea how ready for the majors he actually is, and he might just be totally overwhelmed and earn a trip back to Triple-A before his 20th birthday. That might even be a more likely outcome than the ones where Griffin is an absolute superstar from Day One.

Add it all up, and expectations should be high, but tempered. Even the outcomes that are somewhere south of the best-case scenario could still see Griffin emerging as a must-start Fantasy option in Roto leagues thanks to his strong power/speed potential. The downside outcomes are extremely low, but the high-end ones could also be hugely impactful. 

What about the theory that the day a top prospect gets called up is also the best day to try to trade them? I'm definitely open to that argument. Right now, Griffin is all hype. He's perfect, one of the best prospects of his generation. The flaws haven't been exposed, and even then, he might be good enough to overcome those flaws.

But they might sink him, too, and if you could turn Griffin into another player with significant upside who is more proven, that might not be a bad idea. But I think I would probably need someone who was being drafted as a top-75 pick a few weeks ago if I was trying to move Griffin right now, because I think that's more or less where he would have ended up in the rankings if he had made the team out of camp. I would move him for a Byron Buxton type, or Jackson Chourio if someone can't handle his absence from injury. But even quite good but flawed players like Willy Adames or Dansby Swanson probably wouldn't be enough to get me to move Griffin, even if I'll rank those guys ahead of Griffin for the time being. 

Because, while the most likely outcomes for Adames or Swanson are better than Griffin's, the high-end outcomes for Griffin are probably even better. I'm holding out for that.