drew-rasmussen.jpg

It looked like Drew Rasmussen's time as a Fantasy-relevant pitcher might be over a few weeks ago, as the Rays limited him to just two innings in consecutive starts to open July, with Joe Boyle coming up from the minors to piggyback and provide length. It doesn't matter how good you are if you aren't going to even have a chance to get a quality start every time you go out there. 

But then it looked like Rasmussen was granted a reprieve, as reports came out during the All-Star break that Rasmussen would return to a more normal workload to open the second half. Did we overreact to those two early-July starts? 

No, I think we got this one right the first time, unfortunately.

Rasmussen was given a longer leash Tuesday in his first start back from the break, but not a long enough one to really matter in Fantasy. He didn't exactly pitch poorly against the White Sox, but he was inefficient enough that he was pulled after just four innings and 75 pitches, allowing two runs, striking out five, and walking one. 

Maybe Rasmussen could have gone deeper into the game if he was more efficient – if he had been at 65 pitches through four, maybe they give him the chance to get through five innings, with a pitch limit more like 80 than the 75 he threw … but would that really make a difference for his Fantasy value moving forward? The Rays have had a quick hook with Rasmussen all season, allowing him to top 80 pitches just six times in 19 starts – and he has reached 90 just once. 

Despite that, he's been a very good Fantasy pitcher, but in the 13 starts where he has thrown 80 or fewer pitches, Rasmussen has finished six innings just three times. You can still have value in a Roto league if you're only going five innings most of the time, something Rasmussen did 15 times in his first 16 starts. But if you can't even count on that from him – if the best case scenario is five innings and any misstep is going to lead to an early hook, I'm just not sure Rasmussen is going to have much value moving forward. 

Certainly not in points leagues, where he basically has no chance of ever getting a quality start. But even his chances of getting a win are extremely low if he's going to struggle to even finish five innings, and since Rasmussen doesn't get many strikeouts, either, you're left with a low-volume source of ERA and WHIP, and at some point, wouldn't you rather have a dominant middle reliever for that? At least those guys can occasionally vulture a win or save; Rasmussen might effectively have no chance of either. 

It's frustrating, because Rasmussen is a great pitcher. But he's a great pitcher who has had three ligament reconstruction surgeries in his elbow and threw just 80.2 innings in his previous two seasons combined. The Rays have to be careful with his workload, and I think it's going to ruin his Fantasy value. To the point where Rasmussen clearly isn't a must-roster player in any formats, and is probably flat-out droppable in any 12-team league. 

Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB: 

Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets

Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets (29%) – The Mets tried to make Alvarez a contact hitter. I mean, they didn't say exactly that, but hitting coach Eric Chavez all but said it last season when he said, "You'll learn to do the homer thing, but become a good hitter first and make consistent contact." And I hope we're done with all that. Alvarez tried to focus on contact and hitting it to all fields the past year and a half, and it's been a disaster, as he stopped hitting for power without decreasing his strikeout rate or increasing his batting average. It was the worst of all worlds, and when Alvarez was demoted down to Triple-A, he got back to driving the ball in the air (51% fly ball rate) and to the pull side (42.9% Pull%), which is how he's going to get back to hitting for power. He slugged 11 homers in 19 games after his demotion, and he hit his first back from Triple-A Tuesday, a shot to the pull side. The bar for Fantasy relevance at catcher has increased enough this season that Alvarez is fringe-y in a one-catcher league, but I'm willing to pick him up in any two-catcher league and place a low-stakes bet that he'll be a difference-maker down the stretch (as long as neither Drake Baldwin or Sean Murphy are available in my league). 

Edward Cabrera, SP, Marlins (63%) – This was good to see. Cabrera left his previous start with some elbow soreness, which is always alarming, but he looked fine in his first start back, even adding a bit of velocity across his entire arsenal. He led with his changeup, as he often does, and continued to prioritize his sinker to great effect, striking out six over 5.2 one-run innings against a Padres lineup that makes a lot of contact. Cabrera has just one walk over his past four starts and is down to a 2.49 ERA with 72 strikeouts to 19 walks in 68.2 innings since the start of May and looks like a very solid starting option right now. 

Ramon Laureano, OF, Orioles (24%) – Laureano's career resurgence began last season when he hit .296/.327/.505 with 10 homers in 67 games with the Braves, but nobody really bought into it. It might be well past time to buy in. He's now hitting .291/.342/.512 over the past 365 days, and he's got the underlying data to back it up; his .362 wOBA in 2025 comes with a .352 xwOBA, mostly thanks to improved quality of contact, a lower strikeout rate, and the best pulled-air rate of his career at 25.2%. And Laureano is basically playing every day for the Orioles at this point, so even if you're skeptical, it seems like time to just ride the hot hand and stop being skeptical. 

Angel Martinez, 2B, Guardians (19%) – Martinez is hitting .319 with four homers and a .961 OPS in the month of July after he went 3 for 5 with a double Tuesday, and I can't really figure out how he's getting away with it. The 23-year-old switch-hitter makes a decent amount of contact despite having an overly aggressive approach at the plate, but he doesn't hit the ball particularly hard when he swings. Even in July, his average exit velocity is just 88.5 mph, and his expected wOBA for the month is .289. That's basically an unplayable number for an everyday player, though it's one a hitter can start to overcome by hitting the ball in the air to the pull side a lot, and that's exactly what Martinez is doing, with 28% of his batted balls hit into the air to the pull side. Maybe he's just the new Isaac Paredes and can keep pulling this trick off, but more than likely, this is just a hot-hand player for deeper categories leagues and little more. 

Brice Matthews, SS, Astros (21%) – Matthews has big flaws, and they are certainly showing up, with a 37.5% strikeout rate in his first six MLB games. But the tools are showing up, too, as he hit his third homer Tuesday, with five runs and seven RBI. He's been a dynamic, productive hitter in the minors, with 10 homers and 25 steals at Triple-A before his promotion, and he's showing enough in the early going that I hope he hangs around even when Jeremy Pena is back from the IL. It doesn't hurt his value that he's 2B eligible now, either.