Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Report: Ryan Walker's demotion, Tony Santillan's meltdown complicate closer picture
Meanwhile, a new closer contender emerges for the Angels
The loss of Emilio Pagan was supposed to be easy.
The Reds had a clear hierarchy. The eighth-inning guy would go to the ninth, and the seventh-inning guy would go to the eight. No sweat. It might be preferable, in fact, given the way Pagan had been pitching.
But all it takes is one meltdown to throw off the plan, leaving us all scrambling to figure out who's actually the priority pickup in the Reds bullpen.
It's one of the 10 closer scenarios generating the most interest in Fantasy Baseball right now.
Note: "Pecking order" refers to rosterability in Fantasy and not necessarily who's first in line for saves (though it's usually one and the same).
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I wasn't expecting to have Pagan in the top spot, seeing as he's going to miss a month or two with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, but this weekend so thoroughly clouded the Reds' ninth-inning picture that I'm no longer confident they'll settle on any one reliever in his absence. Tony Santillan seemed like the obvious choice to replace him. He had been the eighth-inning guy both this year and last. But when tasked with the ninth-inning with the Reds already trailing Friday, he made the situation worse, allowing four runs on two home runs without recording an out.
A closer look reveals Santillan may have been getting away with something prior to that appearance. The velocity on both his fastball and breaking ball is down 2 mph this year, and his swinging-strike rate has cratered. Manager Terry Francona didn't turn to him when the Reds had a save chance the following day, instead giving it to Pierce Johnson. Was it because Santillan needed a day off after that ugly appearance, or was it because the trust was gone?
Even if it's the latter, what about Johnson's history would suggest he'd make for a satisfactory closer? He hadn't been serving in a high-leverage role, not even notching a hold since March. Graham Ashcraft would seem to make for a more obvious fail-safe, but he set up for Johnson in that Saturday save chance and then worked the ninth with a five-run lead Sunday. Clearly, Francona isn't reserving him for saves.
So is it Johnson or Santillan? My hunch is that Francona simply wanted to give Santillan a break Saturday and will turn to him for the next save chance, but if the right-hander doesn't right himself soon, we're looking at pandemonium.
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In a surprise move Sunday, the Giants optioned Ryan Walker to the minors, hoping he could use the time there to get back on track. Though he's the team leader in saves this season with three, he wasn't consistently used as the closer, with his last save coming on April 22. His seven earned runs in his past four appearances likely sealed his fate.
Caleb Kilian, who recorded the team's most recent save May 4, was quickly becoming the preferred option for Fantasy and may be the favorite for saves now, but given the way rookie manager Tony Vitello has handled his bullpen so far, it's not a strong favorite. Fellow righty Keaton Winn has been in some ways more effective than Kilian, and left-hander Erik Miller, who already has two saves, is expected back from the IL Saturday. There's also Joel Peguero, a hard-throwing sinkerballer who himself returned from the IL about a week ago and has only appeared in the ninth inning so far. His first two ninth-inning appearances came in losses, which doesn't mimic traditional closer usage, but his ninth-inning appearance Sunday came in a tie after Kilian had already worked the eighth. Seems pretty messy to me.
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I scoffed at the idea of Ryan Zeferjahn stepping into the closer role after Jordan Romano was designated for assignment, but lo and behold, it appears to be happening. He has just the one save so far, recorded about a week ago, but his latest appearance Sunday saw him work the ninth with a five-run lead. In fact, three of Zeferjahn's four appearances since the Romano ouster have been to finish out a game, and the fourth one would have been if it hadn't gone to extra innings. The only Angels reliever with as compelling of a case is Sam Bachman, but he's mostly been working the sixth and seventh innings. Kirby Yates' first appearance back from the IL Friday went smoothly enough, but his velocity was down 2 mph from a year ago and 3 mph from two years ago, when he was last, you know, good. It no longer seems like he's on the verge of reclaiming the role.
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Ryan Helsley isn't expected to miss much time, dealing only with inflammation in his elbow. But elbow injuries have been known to escalate on occasion, and the right-hander has yet to begin throwing. So far, Rico Garcia has done his best to ensure the Orioles don't even miss Helsley, closing out three games, including one for a win and two for a save. He's allowed no hits in those three appearances and has, in fact, allowed just one hit all season long. If saves are scarce in your league, you might want to keep Garcia around as insurance even after Helsley returns.
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Jack Perkins seemed like he was on the verge of claiming the closer role at the end of April, being deployed much like a closer would be in four consecutive appearances (three times for a save and once to preserve a tie). Unfortunately, back-to-back hiccups to begin the month of May have poured cold water on that idea. The blown save he suffered Wednesday was anything but typical closer usage, seeing as he entered in the seventh inning, but then when tasked with a conventional save chance Friday, he had to be bailed out by left-hander Hogan Harris after coughing up a run. Perkins is clearly the Athletics' best reliever and the only one worthy of taking up the closer mantle, but he's not making it easy on manager Mark Kotsay, who has never been inclined toward traditional bullpen roles.
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Pete Fairbanks is set to return Wednesday from a nerve issue that cost him feeling in his right hand, and hopefully that's the last we'll hear about it. He was struggling before the injury and has a manager in Clayton McCullough whose bullpen decisions are often infuriating for Fantasy Baseballers. Still, almost all of Fairbanks' appearances prior to the injury were exactly the sort of scenarios in which a closer would be used, so provided he proves up to the task, he should settle back into the closer role in short order. It's not like a clear alternative emerged in his absence, with Tyler Phillips, Calvin Faucher, Josh Ekness and John King each recording a save.
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Josh Hader is on the road to recovery, having made two Triple-A rehab appearances as he works toward a May 24 return, but even so, the Astros have two more weeks of saves to distribute in some other way. To that end, left-hander Bryan King has emerged as the front-runner, if only a loose one. He has each of the team's last two saves, with the most recent one coming May 5, which was also the last time he pitched. That save was of the two-inning variety, making it a little unconventional, but the fact he hasn't pitched since then would suggest that the Astros are saving him for another such occasion. Bryan Abreu has looked a little more stable in the meantime, which has likely moved him ahead of Enyel De Los Santos in the pecking order, but his velocity still lags behind where it was a year ago.
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Tanner Scott has recorded each of the Dodgers' last three saves and, in fact, all three since Edwin Diaz was lost to an elbow injury. He would seem to be the guy in Diaz's absence, then, except for the fact that three of his seven appearances during that time have come prior to the ninth inning. Just two appearances ago, he worked the eighth inning in what turned out to be a 10-run win for the Dodgers. You might think it was because he needed the work, but he had only been idle for two days.
It's a little odd is all, and manager Dave Roberts has been known to switch up his late-inning bullpen choices on a whim. The Dodgers have no shortage of bullpen arms that could work in the ninth if Roberts wanted to try them out, but right-hander Blake Treinen and left-hander Alex Vesia have been the highest-leverage relievers other than Scott. For what it's worth, Diaz likely won't be back until the second half.
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With another save Sunday, lefty-hander Jacob Latz has now recorded each of the Rangers' past four, lending further credence to the idea that he is indeed the closer. In fact, each of his past five appearances (and six of his past seven) have been to close out a win. Meanwhile, four of Jake Junis' past five appearances have come in the eighth inning, including twice to set up a Latz save. Junis' last save came about a month ago. Granted, Junis never did anything to lose the closer role, and the same could happen to Latz. For now, though, Latz is such a clear front-runner that I'm not even sure it's worth addressing the Rangers closer situation the next time I write a Bullpen Report.
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Gus Varland looked like he was settling into the closer role -- perhaps even making for a superior alternative to Clayton Beeter, who was recently sidelined by forearm soreness -- but the Nationals' latest save actually went to left-hander PJ Poulin. Now, you might say it was of the unconventional variety, with only one out being recorded, but that's because Brad Lord put a runner on while trying for a two-inning save. Where was Varland? Well, he had thrown 23 pitches the day before, so perhaps he just needed a day off. But his subsequent appearance Sunday came in the eighth inning of a tie game, and he ended up melting down for three runs. So it seems like things are sticky here. Varland remains the front-runner, but not as firmly as we hoped.
