Top player prop expert tabs 80-to-1 longshot as his best longshot prop for 2025 NFL season
SportsLine expert Alex Selesnick, who has gone 524-418 on his NFL picks entering 2025, is making a Patriots rookie receiver his No. 1 longshot player prop pick for the upcoming campaign
The New England Patriots may have won six Super Bowl titles, tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most ever. But in terms of drafting and developing receivers, the Patriots may as well be the Cleveland Browns.
Arguably no franchise has been worse at picking and preparing wideouts than New England, which has famously bombed with first-round picks Hart Lee Dykes (1989) and N'Keal Harry (2019) and second-round selections Kevin Lee (1994), Bethel Johnson (2003) and Chad Jackson (2006), among others. Even the best receiver ever to be drafted by the Patriots—1984 No. 1 overall pick Irving Fryar—had his most productive seasons after leaving New England.
The Patriots' receiver track record somehow has been even worse recently. Between 2010 and '24, the team drafted 15 receivers. Just two have more than 698 career receiving yards: Braxton Berrios (1,323), who's now with the Texans and better known for being the boyfriend of TikTok star Alix Earle, and DeMario Douglas (1,182).
So, if track record and recent history are any indication, the odds are against Kyle Williams having a productive NFL career. New England used the fifth pick of the third round (69th overall) of April's NFL Draft to select the 5-foot-11, 190-pound wideout out of Washington State.
However, SportsLine expert Alex Selesnick believes Williams has a chance to not only buck history but have a standout rookie season. Selesnick, who has gone 524-418 on his NFL picks entering 2025, has made Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+8000) his No. 1 longshot player prop pick for the upcoming campaign.
Williams enters the league after playing three seasons at UNLV and the last two at Washington State. With 4.40 speed and the ability to beat press coverage, Williams had 20 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons, which ranked third in the country over that time. His 2,040 receiving yards and 131 receptions ranked 10th and 26th in the nation, respectively.
Last season, in his two games against ranked teams, Williams had a combined 19 receptions for 314 yards and two touchdowns.
Entering the draft, Selesnick had Williams ranked as the No. 1 receiver prospect, slightly ahead of two-way star Travis Hunter, who was selected No. 2 overall. Selesnick describes Williams as a combination of Steve Smith and Tyler Lockett.
"I would argue that Williams is undoubtedly the most polished rookie receiver and is the best route runner in the entire rookie receiver class," Selesnick told SportsLine. "Typically guys who excel at route running are able to hit the ground running, and they're able to translate to the NFL quickly."
The Patriots depth chart gives Williams an opportunity to contribute early. Stefon Diggs, who's 31 years old and returning from a torn ACL suffered in October, is the only receiver ahead of Williams in the pecking order. Williams is competing for playing time against the likes of Douglas, Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte, Kendrick Bourne and Ja'Lynn Polk—not exactly the second coming of The Greatest Show on Turf.
Selesnick also believes that this year's offensive rookie class is a weak one.
"Outside of Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty, it is hard to make a strong case for any other rookie candidate," Selesnick says. "If Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is able to take a step forward and Williams is quick to assimilate, I believe he's very likely to have a strong season."
