NFL Week 1 Inside the Lines RB Prop Cheat Sheet: Tank Bigsby to score, big TreVeyon Henderson debut, more

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As anyone who bets knows (or should know), lines are highly fluid and it is very likely that by the time you read this, the odds presented here will have changed. If the lines have moved in your favor, then good for you. If they moved toward our recommended side, then it's just a reminder to keep up with our latest picks at the blog.

Rachaad White Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (+100, BetMGM)

Bucky Irving is the clear-cut RB1 in Tampa, and if this were the final game of the season with the division on the line or a playoff game, we would project Irving with 20 carries. We'd also have possible not even three carries for White and certainly under 18.5 rushing yards. But Irving isn't the biggest RB in the world and has dealt with injuries, so we think there is a good chance the Bucs look to keep Irving in the 15 carry-per-game range and let White carry the rock six or seven times. 

Our projection for him is 6.5 carries for 29 yards, so there's plenty of wiggle room for this Over. Atlanta allowed opposing teams to average over 4.5 yards per carry. TB also had plenty of success with both Irving and White getting a good number of carries. Irving's rushing yard line is 70.5 and TB averaged 146 rushing yards per game. I definitely see them getting 50 non-Irving rushing yards, and half of those going to Rachaad White.

Tank Bigsby Anytime Touchdown (+155, DraftKings)

I think Travis Etienne's hold on RB1 is tenuous, and it's too early for rookie Bhayshul Tuten to be the guy. Bigsby is Fantasy Football Today's RB41 this week because he is expected to be the goal line RB. In the 28 games he's played, he has accounted for 39% of carries, 43% of rushing yards and 50% of rushing TDs. The higher rates in yards and TDs are what you want to see... not Etienne's 47% of carries, 44.8% of yards and 32% of rush TDs.

Now Bigsby plays a minimal role in the passing game, but in the final six weeks last season when he was the primary RB, he did manage at least one reception in all but two games. He's due to score through the air eventually, especially when the defense is least expecting it. C'mon Liam Coen. Show everyone how clever you are offensively and scheme up a receiving TD for Tank.

TreVeyon Henderson Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

The model is probably a bit too high on TreVeyon's touches in Week 1, but his explosiveness in the preseason (and last season at Ohio State) is pretty jaw-dropping. Even if doesn't get double-digit carries, his ability to break a run for 30 yards is probably amongst the best in the league. Obviously there is no NFL history, but we do have his history at Ohio State sharing carries with another NFL highly drafted RB in Quinshon Judkins. 

He can fall well short of our ~66 yard projection but still come up well Over 38.5 rushing yards.

Austin Ekeler Over 46.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115, BetMGM)

I thought he was washed after his last season with the Chargers, but Kliff Kingsbury relied on him heavily down the stretch when Washington was at its best. They traded Brian Robinson and are stuck with two unproven young RBs. For Week 1 expect Ekeler to be in the role he was in all of last season at the very least, when he averaged over 60 total yards and went 11-4 over this number.

His rushing attempts prop line is just 5.5 and his receiving prop line just 2.5. But at 4.8 YPC and over 10 yards per reception last season, that's enough for 25 each and over 46.5 total. But again, with only "Bob" and Chris Rodriguez at RB, we project him to be closer to 10 touches. 

Breece Hall Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)

Many expect Braelon Allen to take over more running responsibilities, but there could be more snaps with Hall used as a receiver. Justin Fields isn't exactly Drew Brees, so having a big play threat he can just dump the ball off to is a good thing. Hall has gotten 16.5% of his team's receptions in games he's played, which isn't Christian McCaffrey level (23%), but it's higher than Jahmyr Gibbs and is Bijan Robinson-like.

The Steelers are familiar with Fields, given he was their starter at this point last year and their pass rush won't give him much time in the pocket. Hall should be good for at least three receptions, and he has gone over 17.5 in 17 of 22 games with at least three catches.

Kenneth Walker Over 2.5 Receptions (+100, BetMGM)

You think of Kenneth Walker as the power back and Zach Charbonnet as the change of pace back, but Walker has a decently high 13.8% of team receptions. With him having only 8.5% of team receiving yards, I wouldn't take his receiving yard Over but at plus money on a line Under his average of 3.1 at home (12-9 over 2.5) and a projection of 3.0, I'll take Over on his receptions.

Walker had just as many receptions as carries (eight) in his last game played. He had another game in October with just five carries, but seven receptions. New QB Sam Darnold can't just chuck it to Justin Jefferson like he did last season. He doesn't have a true X-receiver with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as WR1 and an aging Cooper Kupp. He will need to pass to his RBs or risk INTs. Aaron Jones has a similar 14% of team receptions in his career as Walker, and Jones had 51 receptions last season as RB1 in Minnesota with Darnold despite the greatness at WR on that team.

Other Good Model Values

These are our latest Week 1 RB projections vs. the betting lines at the time we published. When there is projection value we list the full bet and the sportsbook with the best line. Perhaps you don't love all of the same ones I picked above, but you can use this to see if we agree with your personal best bets.

These are just a fraction of our best bets all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game.  

What makes a bet an "Inside the Lines Best Bet?" These are ones where:

1) Best Projection: Our SportsLine Model's projection shows clear value versus the line and we love certain statistical trends, X's and O's and subjective supporting data that supports our side but isn't directly factored into the model. For example, say we love a running back to go Over 14.5 carries and his backup is projected for 5.5 carries, but the backup is questionable and there's a chance he can be ruled out, which surely will change our projection to 16.5 (third-stringer gets 3.5) and the line would likely go from 12.5 to 15.5. If we have value on a side and the only unknown factors that will change are in our favor, we'll consider it our "Best Projection."

AND

2) Best Price: There is an outlier best price that we should take advantage of before it steams in "our direction." In most of these cases, the best-priced book is using "standard odds making logic" to set the line, but our team has identified a unique situation where standard odds rules don't apply. For example, maybe a player is -110 to throw an interception, but in his last three seasons he has averaged just 0.4 interceptions on the road compared to 0.7 at home because the team plays on a fast track at home and averages 5+ more pass attempts at home.

Step 1 provides greater accuracy and Step 2, especially when combined with a nice Profit Boost or Promotion, significantly lowers the bar for being profitable ... which is why we like to feature our best line sportsbooks offers.