NFL predictions: Colts and Ravens are among best spread picks for Week 16

The model's top spread picks went 2-3 in Week 15, with the Saints winning outright as 2.5-point underdogs and the Colts hanging tough in an 18-16 loss against a Seattle team favored by 13.5. The Chargers indeed knocked off the Chiefs, but failed to cover the 4.5-point spread, and the Rams lost by a touchdown while getting 5.5 points. The Dallas defense fell apart against what had been a struggling Vikings offense, giving up 34 points as the Cowboys lost as 5.5-point favorites. Week 16 brings a full slate of games, featuring some matchups with major playoff implications and others with teams just looking forward to the end of the season.  

Despite the setbacks, the SportsLine Projection Model still enters Week 16 on a 52-37 run for top-rated NFL picks dating back to 2024.

Here's a look at our favorite NFL spread picks for Week 16.

Best spread picks for NFL Week 16

Giants +3 vs. Vikings

New York hasn't been good overall, but its offense has been showing some positive signs and it averages 64 more yards per game than Minnesota's. The Vikings have the superior defense, but there could be a letdown after they were eliminated from the postseason despite a victory against Dallas. The Vikings lost six of seven before their current two-game win streak, and the offense averages the fifth-fewest total yards and passing yards in league. The SportsLine Projection Model says take the Giants, who win outright in 53% of its simulations and cover the spread 58% of the time.

Dolphins +2.5 vs. Bengals

Miami had another frustrating outing against the Steelers, so this Bengals defense will be a welcome sight. Cincinnati is the only NFL team allowing more than 400 yards per game. With Joe Burrow, the Bengals can score some points, but Miami's defensive strength is clearly against the pass and Cincy's defense yields 31.2 points per game, most in the league. The SportsLine Projection model has Miami winning outright driven by a big game from running back De'Von Achane so take the points with the Dolphins, who cover in 57% of the model's simulations.

Ravens -3 vs. Patriots

New England comes off a crushing home loss to Buffalo that snapped a 10-game win streak. The Ravens shut out the Bengals in Week 15, a victory coach John Harbaugh called their most complete of the season. Baltimore is fighting for its playoff life, as the Ravens are 7-7 and a game behind the Steelers in the AFC North. The Ravens have a showdown with Pittsburgh in the regular season finale, but they need to keep winning. Harbaugh will have them ready, and the SportsLine Projection Model has Baltimore covering in 55% of its simulations.

Colts +6 vs. 49ers

The Colts and Philip Rivers surprised a lot of people when they went toe-to-toe with the Seahawks last week, losing 18-16 as a 13.5-point underdog. Oddsmakers made some adjustments, but the SportsLine Projection Model doesn't think it was enough. The Colts have lost four in a row but three were by four points or fewer, and the defense allows 21.6 points per game, 12th in the NFL. The Colts protect the ball well (plus-2 in turnover margin) and San Francisco can make mistakes at times (minus-5), so the SportsLine Projection Model says take the points on the Colts, who are covering in 55% of the model's simulations.

Buccaneers -3 vs. Panthers

Neither of these defenses are anything to write home about, and Tampa Bay has the better offense now that it's nearing full strength. Tampa Bay has won eight of the past nine meetings, including a 48-14 victory in the last matchup, when Baker Mayfield threw for 359 yards and five TD passes. Bucky Irving ran for a career-high 152 in last year's game in Carolina, a 26-23 overtime victory. The Bucs defense's strength is against the run, and that is what the Panthers do best, so Bryce Young will be the key. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Bucs covering in 54% of its simulations.