NFL predictions: Chiefs, Bears, Buccaneers among best spread picks for Week 14
Here's a look at our five best spread bets for Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season
After struggling with Week 12 spread picks, I went 4-1 in Week 13 thanks to underdogs pulling off upsets on Thanksgiving and Black Friday while heavy favorites took care of business on Sunday. Week 14 of the 2025 NFL season brings 14 games with it, as the San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are on a bye.
Here's a look at our favorite NFL spread picks for Week 14.
Best spread picks for NFL Week 14
Commanders +1.5 vs. Vikings
Both these teams have dealt with poor quarterback play this season, although the Vikings have been substantially worse even when J.J. McCarthy is at the helm. Marcus Mariota has filled in well for Jayden Daniels, who could potentially return to action this week. Minnesota's defense is elite and the Vikings might get a boost from the home crowd, but even a Mariota-led Washington offense is better than whatever Minnesota is putting out. Take the points with the Commanders, who cover in 60% of SportsLine simulations.
Jets +2.5 vs. Dolphins
New York looks like a legitimate offense when Tyrod Taylor is playing quarterback, even if he isn't the long-term answer at the position. The Jets aren't going to the playoffs, but they're playing hard for head coach Aaron Glenn, who clearly has some cache with the locker room. The environment is actually looking positive, which is unlike the situation in Miami despite the Dolphins winning their last three games. Mike McDaniel is almost surely on his way out and Tua Tagovailoa's future is in question, too. Add in the potential elements and cold weather and I think New York gets another win here. The Jets cover in 58% of simulations.
Buccaneers -8.5 vs. Saints
Tampa Bay got back on track last week against the Cardinals despite a late scare and has a chance to create more separation in the division with Carolina on a bye. The Buccaneers should easily roll against a Saints team that is pesky but ultimately lacks the talent on both sides of the ball to present a real challenge. Baker Mayfield is 5-1 in six career games against New Orleans and should keep rolling at home. Tampa Bay covers in 52% of simulations.
Bears +6.5 vs. Packers
The SportsLine Projection Model has the Packers covering at home in 54% of simulations, and it makes sense why Green Bay is favored at that number. The Bears have rattled off five wins in a row and might've gained some legitimacy after beating the Eagles, but their record is largely a product of a favorable last-place schedule. Green Bay has a tendency to play to its level of competition, though the rivalry and first place in the NFC North being on the line could light some unknown fire within the Packers. I'll still back Chicago to at least keep this thing tight and cover the 6.5-point spread.
Chiefs -3.5 vs. Texans
It's been "now or never" for the Chiefs for at least four games now, but this truly is the "now or never" moment. Kansas City cannot fall below .500 if it wants to make the playoffs, and the Texans are a team ahead of the Chiefs in the wild card picture. Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City's defense typically step up at home in these scenarios, and even with C.J. Stroud back at quarterback for Houston, I'll take the Chiefs to cover on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City covers in 53% of model simulations.
