NFL predictions: Bucs, Colts among underdogs to pick on the spread in Week 7

It was a rough week for my spread picks in Week 6, missing out on all five selections after going .500 over my first 20 picks. While the Packers and Broncos did win outright, they did not cover against the Bengals and Jets, respectively. The Giants and Falcons pulled off upsets while the Chiefs won as home favorites over the Lions. However, the NFL season keeps on moving with Week 7 offering 15 more opportunities to make spread picks.

Here's a look at some top spread picks for Week 7 as I try to bounce back from Week 6.

Best spread picks for NFL Week 7

Steelers -5.5 vs. Bengals

The Steelers did cover this number against the Browns, who continue to look lost despite making a quarterback switch. The Bengals now have previous Browns starter Joe Flacco, and he was competent in Cincinnati's 27-18 loss to Green Bay. Cincinnati gets to return home and could catch Pittsburgh on a short week, but I think the Steelers are the better team on both sides of the ball. Aaron Rodgers should be able to torch this defense, and Pittsburgh's defense has plenty of experience dealing with Flacco from his days in Cleveland and Baltimore. The Steelers cover in 57% of simulations in the SportsLine Projection Model.

Colts +1.5 vs. Chargers

The Colts are for real while the Chargers have been inconsistent, especially defensively. After coming into the year with the best scoring defense in 2024, L.A. has been all over the place on that side of the ball across the last three weeks. Indianapolis remains efficient under Daniel Jones, who is comfortable in Shane Steichen's offense. Even on the road, Indianapolis should cover in what is effectively a pick 'em. The SportsLine model sees the Colts cover in 54% of simulations.

Packers -6.5 vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals cover in 52% of SportsLine simulations but there's concern regarding Kyler Murray's injury. If he does suit up, he's likely to still be dealing with some foot trouble, which will impact his mobility. The Packers have consistently played down to their opponents after starting the season strong, but they should be able to dominate against a backup quarterback or a limited Murray.

Bucs +5.5 vs. Lions

The Lions are coming off a poor showing against the Chiefs, and they'll want to bounce back at home against another contender in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are dealing with plenty of injuries, but Baker Mayfield continues to put up MVP-like numbers amidst the chaos. There's a possibility Mike Evans could return this week, which would further boost Tampa Bay. It's hard to pick against Mayfield right now, even with Detroit poised to recover nicely from a poor Week 6 game. The SportsLine model has Detroit covering in 51% of simulations.

Seahawks -3.5 vs. Texans

I'd feel better about this number at -2.5. The Texans have started coming around a bit on offense, level of competition aside. Houston should be more smooth on that side of the ball after the bye week. The Seahawks have not been great at home under Mike Macdonald, but their defense still plays better in the Pacific Northwest than it does on the road. I'll take Seattle on Monday Night Football to close out Week 7. The Texans cover in 54% of SportsLine simulations.