NFL playoffs odds: How the Lions moved past the Packers in NFC North race
According to the SportsLine Inside the Lines team model, Detroit has gained the upper hand for the division title
The Detroit Lions entered the 2025 NFL season with a number of goals, including setting a franchise record by winning a third consecutive division title. That objective took an immediate hit, as the Lions opened the campaign with a lackluster 27-13 road loss against the Green Bay Packers.
But Detroit, which entered the year with new offensive and defensive coordinators after Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn departed for NFL head coaching positions, has not let the Week 1 setback ruin its plans. The Lions took out their frustrations on another division rival in the Chicago Bears, cruising to a 52-21 victory in their home opener to even their record and followed with triumphs over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.
Detroit now sits atop the NFC North at 3-1, as Green Bay defeated the Washington Commanders in Week 2 to improve to 2-0 but squandered a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost to Cleveland 13-10 before allowing an early 13-point advantage against the Dallas Cowboys to disappear and battling back to escape with a 40-40 tie.
The deadlock in "Big D" effectively made the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage the Packers have over the Lions by virtue of their Week 1 victory irrelevant. Although there have been two games to end in a tie in three of the past nine seasons (2016, 2018 and 2022), the likelihood of Detroit being involved in one over the final 14 weeks of this campaign is quite low.
The Lions enter Week 5 with an opportunity to increase their one-half game division lead over the Packers. Detroit, which is a full game ahead of both Chicago and the Minnesota Vikings, visits the struggling Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday while Green Bay has a bye.
Head coach Dan Campbell's squad isn't idle until Week 8 and doesn't have the chance to avenge its Week 1 loss until it hosts the Packers in Week 13. After visiting Cincinnati, the Lions remain on the road for a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs and return home to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before enjoying a bye.
SportsLine's Inside the Lines team and its projection model have become more impressed by Detroit with each passing week. The ITL team's model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has the Lions' chances of success increasing across the board in its simulations as a result of last Sunday's convincing 34-10 win against the Browns.
MAKING PLAYOFFS | WINNING DIVISION | WINNING CONFERENCE | WINNING SUPER BOWL | |
Preseason | 71.3% | 29.9% | 14.9% | 8.0% |
After Week 1 | 50.6% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 3.4% |
After Week 2 | 64.1% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 5.8% |
After Week 3 | 71.8% | 37.9% | 17.9% | 9.1% |
After Week 4 | 87.6% | 58.4% | 26.3% | 15.3% |
The model no longer sees Green Bay winning the NFC North, as its simulations currently have the Packers capturing the crown 31.7% of the time - down from 47.4% prior to their tie in Dallas. The Lions are now the favorites to take the title, and only the Philadelphia Eagles (96.2%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (94.9%) have a better chance of making the playoffs in the conference than Detroit.
According to the ITL team's model, Philadelphia (17.0%) is the only club that represents the NFC in the Super Bowl LX next February in more simulations than the Lions. It also says just two teams have a stronger chance to win the championship than Detroit, which captures the Lombardi Trophy 15.3% of the time.
Philadelphia Eagles | Detroit Lions | ||
Super Bowl win % | 27.1% | 17.0% | 15.3% |
The Lions appear to be catching Cincinnati (2-2) at the right time. The Bengals enter the Week 5 matchup having lost their last two games with Jake Browning at quarterback in place of the injured Joe Burrow by a combined score of 76-13. Detroit is a 10.5-point favorite in the latest consensus NFL odds, and the ITL team's model says the outlook for the team's postseason chances would increase a bit with a win but diminish a larger amount with a loss.
CURRENT PLAYOFF % | % WITH WEEK 5 WIN | % WITH WEEK 5 LOSS |
87.6% | 89.6% | 79.5% |
CURRENT DIVISION TITLE % | % WITH WEEK 5 WIN | % WITH WEEK 5 LOSS |
58.4% | 61.8% | 45.3% |
The all-time series between Detroit and Cincinnati has been one-sided, as the Bengals have won 10 of the 13 meetings - including each of the last seven. However, they have been dominated offensively in their last two contests.
Cincinnati was outgained 352-171 overall and 169-53 on the ground in its 48-10 loss at Minnesota in Week 3, and things were even more lopsided in its 28-3 setback against the Broncos in Denver this past Monday night. The Bengals allowed 512 total yards (326 passing, 186 rushing) while registering just 159, including 53 on the ground for the second straight week.
That doesn't bode well for their chances to stop the Lions, who lead the NFL in scoring with an average of 34.3 points. Detroit, which outgained Chicago by more than 170 total yards and Baltimore by nearly 110, is sixth in the league in both total offense (365 yards per game) and rushing (139 ypg).
Meanwhile, Jared Goff is second in the NFL with nine touchdown passes - six of which have gone to Amon-ra St. Brown, who is first in the league in receiving touchdowns. The 25-year-old wideout is halfway to matching the career mark he set last season.
