Cowboys vs. Broncos prediction: Dallas' high-flying offense squares off against Denver's lockdown defense

The cliché unstoppable force vs. the immoveable object is used often in sports, but in Week 8 with the high-flying Dallas Cowboys (3-3-1) offense heading into Denver to face a stout Broncos (5-2) defense, it's appropriate to use regarding this matchup. 

Dallas' trio of quarterback Dak Prescott (1,881 yards passing, second-most in the NFL), running back Javonte Williams (592 yards rushing, second-most in the NFL) and wide receiver George Pickens (607 yards receiving, fourth-most in the NFL) are the only teammate trio in the NFL this season to rank top five in the league in passing, rushing and receiving. The Cowboys have seen one teammate trio do that over the course of an entire NFL season since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger: the Hall of Fame trio of quarterback Troy Aikman, running back Emmitt Smith and wide receiver Michael Irvin in 1992. That was when that core won their first Super Bowl title. 

That's also on top of All-Pro receiver CeeDee Lamb returning in Week 7 from a three-game absence because of a sprained ankle. He racked up 110 yards and a touchdown on five catches against the Washington Commanders last week. Tight end Jake Ferguson also ranks fourth in the NFL in catches (51) and tied for second in the league in touchdown catches (6) with Pickens and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams. 

On the other side of the ball, Denver's pass rush is the NFL's best: they lead the league in both sacks (34) and quarterback pressure rate (44.9%). Two Broncos edge rushers, Nik Bonitto (eight sacks, third-most in the NFL) and Jonathon Cooper (six sacks this season, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL), rank top five in the NFL in sacks. The Broncos' two cornerbacks are also standouts: Patrick Surtain II is the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and Riley Moss's 37.5% completion percentage allowed is the lowest among 76 defenders with at least 30 passes thrown their way this season. 

Prescott will be making just his second trip to Denver to face the Broncos despite being Dallas' starting quarterback for 10 seasons (since 2016). His sole past trip came in Week 2 of the 2017, his second NFL season, and much of Denver's defense from its Super Bowl 50 core -- edge rusher Von Miller and cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris -- knocked Prescott and Dallas around in a 42-17 Broncos' home win. Denver's current crew evokes memories of the Broncos' defense of old for Prescott. 

"Yeah, I named some of those older guys, but Bonitto and Surtain, right, they're just a [fair] comparison as some of those guys that I played back then. So credit and respect to them. ... Obviously, they know that they go hand in hand for them," Prescott said Thursday. "Corners can be a little bit more aggressive, sit a little bit more, play those routes, knowing that they're getting home on defense with just their rush. Leading the league in sacks, right. Dominating on third down. So a lot of credit or a lot of respect for them. Just continue to go in there and play my game. Starts with beating the pass rush and when you got the receivers I do, having confidence in them to win. ... Just know going into the game and the game plan... you might not get to [read] No. 4. Sometimes you might not get to [read] No. 3 right? So it's important for the receivers to understand how aggressive they have to be and understanding the time clock. We'll be fine."

Both sides are buckling up for a heavyweight clash between two of the best units in football come Sunday afternoon at Mile High. 

"It's what you play the game for. Regardless if we were both first or not, it's what you play the game for -- elite competition," Prescott said. ... "An amazing environment where the fans are going to be loud, our communication is going to be tested, the non-verbal part of it. Yeah, super excited. It'll be a great one."

Where to watch Cowboys vs. Broncos live

• When: Sunday, Oct. 26 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Where: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (try for free)
• Follow: CBS Sports App
• Odds: Broncos -3.5; O/U 51 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Cowboys vs. Broncos: Need to know

How will Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, head coach Brian Schottenheimer manage the passing game vs. Broncos' No. 1 pass rush?

Despite knowing Prescott won't have as much time to survey the field on Sunday, that doesn't mean Schottenheimer will change his aggression level as a play caller when it comes to dialing deep shots to Pickens and Lamb. The Cowboys are excited to face the Broncos' man coverage-heavy defense: Denver plays man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (36.3%).

"I don't think so because again what they do, which is smart because of their pass rush, they like to play a lot of press man to man," Schottenheimer said when asked if Denver's pass rush changes his downfield aggression. "We'll see what they do with Patrick [Surtain] and who they match him on, if they match him at all. I think they will, but we'll see. They want to rush the passer, they want to disrupt the timing. I'm quite certain they're going to be very comfortable. They do it against Cincinnati and teams like that that have unique weapons like we do. It will be a fun matchup to watch."

Williams, who played his first four seasons with the Broncos after being selected in the second-round of the 2021 NFL Draft, will also factor into slowing down Denver's pass rush. The NFL's second-leading rusher has been looking forward to the homecoming against his former team.

"They're making it all grimy. I mean we got to go into this game expecting them to do just that, win dirty," Prescott said. "No matter what it takes and whatever we have to do, run into some tight boxes, right, but we got to make our plays outside when they give us one-on-one and put ourselves in some of those third and manageables, short of the third and seven and we'll have the upper hand."

Will Cowboys defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus go back to running his heavy zone scheme vs. Broncos QB Bo Nix? 

Former Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn helped mold Dallas into a top five defense built on generating quarterback pressure and takeaways while running man coverage on 33.8% of their defensive plays from 2021 to 2023, the third-highest rate in the NFL in that time frame. After Dallas ranked 31st in scoring defense (30.7 points per game allowed) and last in the entire NFL in total defense (411.7 total yards allowed) through the first six weeks while running zone coverage on a league-high 87.2% of defensive snaps in 2025, new defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus altered his approach. 

Dallas ran man coverage at a season-high 46.9% rate in Week 7, per TruMedia, against Quinn's Washington Commanders, and Dallas' defense had their best performance under Eberflus in a 44-22 Week 7 victory. That 46.9% man coverage rate was the highest in the NFL in Week 7. How stark of a shift did Eberflus make with his defense? Dallas' next highest man coverage rate of the season was 14.1% in Week 5 at the New York Jets, a 37-22 Cowboys road win. 

"Yeah, each week's different. Let's be honest, we played good defense yesterday. They had a few guys out, I don't feel bad for them. We've had a lot of guys out. But we're not sitting here saying, 'Hey we're ready. We're it.' We're not saying we're it right now in any phase," Schottenheimer said on Monday. "But we're going to keep working hard, and we put together a great plan, the guys executed that plan. The guys practiced well. It showed up throughout the week and, man, the communication, I just can't say enough about that." 

Eberflus didn't just get more aggressive with his coverage, he also did so with his utilization of the blitz: the Cowboys' 42.5% blitz rate in Week 7, the eighth-highest blitz rate in the league last week, is their highest of the year by a sizeable margin. The next closest blitz rate Eberflus called was back in Week 3 against his former employer, the Chicago Bears, in Week 3: 28.6%. Naturally, the Cowboys racked up four sacks vs. Washington  by four different players -- linebacker Kenneth Murray, linebacker Shemar James, edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku -- for their second-best sack production of 2025 trailing just their five of New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields in a 37-22 Week 5 road win. Entering Week 7, Dallas had blitzed on just 22.4% of opponents' dropbacks, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. 

Looking ahead to Week 8, no team has had more plays with a screen thrown than the Broncos' 47 in 2025. Despite Cowboys' players and fans' complaints, Dallas may go back to playing more zone coverage in Week 8 because of Denver quarterback Bo Nix's strengths and weaknesses. He is 10th in the NFL in yards per dropback against man coverage (7.0) and 24th in the league in yards per dropback vs. zone (5.8). 

"You have to watch the tape. Analytics tells you something, but the tape tells you the truth. So we have to really understand that the tape tells us what's going on, but I like to get the analytics first to look at it, to see where it is and then really get the evidence off the tape," Eberflus said Thursday. "Then you see how you can move your defense to fit what they're doing on offense, and then it's really just about the guys executing. ... It's [analytics] a starting point."

Prediction

New York Giants rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart was able to rack up four total touchdowns (three passing and one rushing) and 294 total yards (283 passing and 11 rushing) against Denver's vaunted defense at Mile High last week. After New York highlighted some soft spots in the Broncos' stout defensive unit in Week 7, Prescott, a 10-year veteran playing MVP-caliber ball, will be able to make more plays than the up-and-down, second-year Denver quarterback in Nix. A long field goal by All-Pro kicker Brandon Aubrey makes the difference in a narrow Cowboys victory.

Pick: Cowboys 27, Broncos 24 | Cowboys +3.5