Thanksgiving and Black Friday NFL expert picks: Can the Cowboys, Bengals or Packers pull off holiday upsets?
CBSSports.com and SportsLine break down the Thanksgiving slate and the Black Friday game
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6 min read
Who doesn't love a little football to pair with your turkey and gravy? As is tradition in the NFL, we have ourselves a wildly intriguing three-game slate on Thanksgiving. The Packers will visit the Lions at Ford Field, while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Cowboys. Joe Burrow returns in the night game as the Bengals face the Ravens in an AFC North clash, looking to spark a late playoff run.
For the cherry on top, we have another "Black Friday" game -- and it's a doozy with the Bears visiting the Eagles. The only thing that could make this slate more enjoyable is if we can add to our betting bankroll as we dive into our leftovers, which is what we'll look to do here.
As we do every week, we've collected all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine and put them in one place, so you can get sports betting picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 13? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as its incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception.
NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (unless otherwise noted). Bet NFL Week 13 games at DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and three free months of NBA League Pass.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Thursday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
Who doesn't love a good parlay? To whet our whistle in that department, the SportsLine Projection Model has cooked up a tasty parlay that pays +1129 for the Thanksgiving slate. One of the four legs includes taking the Lions on the moneyline. According to the projections, Detroit wins outright in 56% of simulations. To see the other three legs, head on over to SportsLine.
Packers +2.5: "The Lions are favored to win, but I think that's only because the oddsmakers were taking shots of potato vodka before setting the point spread. Potato vodka is the perfect Thanksgiving drink, but it's not good for setting point spreads. My problem with the Lions is that they are playing a good defense and they have not shown me that they can consistently beat teams that have a good defense. There are nine teams in the NFL that have given up less than 21 points per game this year. The Lions have faced three of those teams and they've gone 0-3 in those games." -- CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech on why he has the Packers not only covering the 2.5-point spread in Detroit, but pulling off the outright upset. To see the rest of his picks, click here.
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)
The SportsLine Projection Model is a must-have source when forming wagers this NFL season. The model simulates games over 10,000 times, and identifies top plays based on those scenarios. That has led the model to an impressive 49-33 record on top-rated picks since last season, and we're now putting this Thanksgiving matchup between the Chiefs and Cowboys in its crosshairs. We can tell you it has one side of the moneyline hitting in 62% of simulations. To see who that is, head on over to SportsLine.
Chiefs -3: "This is essentially a playoff game. Neither team can afford a loss with where they are right now. Dallas upset the Eagles at home last week, while the Chiefs beat the Colts. Patrick Mahomes played well in that game and seemed to come alive in the fourth quarter. He will continue that here. Dak Prescott won't keep up. Chiefs take it." -- CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco on why he has Kansas City taking down the Cowboys, 30-24. To see the rest of his Week 13 picks, click here.
Cowboys +3.5: "This Cowboys defense is no longer one of the worst units in the NFL. Since they acquired Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson (and activated some other players from injured reserve), the Cowboys are 2-0 while allowing 18.5 points per game and 45 rushing yards per game. Previously ranked in the bottom five, the Cowboys run defense has been the best in the NFL over the last two weeks. Obviously the Chiefs aren't known for their incredible rushing attack, but I think the Cowboys offense can outscore Patrick Mahomes. Dallas has covered in back-to-back Thanksgiving games while the Chiefs have failed to cover in three straight contests. I say this Cowboys offense is too tough to contain." -- CBS Sports NFL writer Jordan Dajani on why he has the Cowboys covering the spread and beating the Chiefs outright on Thanksgiving. To see his other Week 13 selections, click here.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: Fubo -- try for free)
Bengals +7: "Something just feels off with the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, they've won five straight after beginning the year 1-5 and are now atop the AFC North standings, but they seem a bit disjointed in recent weeks. Specifically, Lamar Jackson hasn't been as prolific as we've grown accustomed to, tallying zero touchdowns and two giveaways over the last two weeks. While Cincinnati's defense is one of the worst units in the NFL this season, they played the Patriots well last week, providing a glimmer of hope that they can be something close to serviceable down the stretch. If they provide some resistance, that'll help Joe Burrow immensely as he makes his return to action for the first time since suffering his turf toe injury. With Ja'Marr Chase back in the fold as well, the Bengals have an offense that can keep this divisional matchup close. In his career, Burrow is 17-3 ATS as an underdog of three or more points." -- CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan on why he is taking the points with the Bengals in this final leg of Thursday's triple-header. To see the rest of his Week 13 picks, click here.
Bengals +7: "I'm assuming here that Joe Burrow plays, as is expected. The Ravens have looked ... okay since Lamar Jackson's return from injury. The defense has been better since it got healthier and, with Tee Higgins out, should be able to really focus in on Ja'Marr Chase. But the offense hasn't been explosive enough for me to think the Ravens are going to blow these guys out. Until we see Lamar Jackson look fully healthy, I continue to think they'll play close games." -- CBS Sports NFL writer Jared Dubin on why he has Cincinnati covering over Baltimore. To see his other Week 13 picks, click here.
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
Friday, 3 p.m. ET on Prime Video
When it comes to betting Eagles games, look no further than SportsLine expert Adam Silverstein. In his last 67 picks involving Philadelphia, Silverstein is 40-25-1 (+1260), which makes him an ideal expert to lean on for this "Black Friday" contest from Lincoln Financial Field. We can tell you Silverstein is leaning Under the 44.5 point total, but to see his official play for this standalone matchup, you'll need to log on to SportsLine.
Eagles -7: "This is a big prove-it game in front of the national audience for the Bears. For the Eagles, it's a chance to get back on track after losing to the Cowboys. I think they will. Their defense will force some Caleb Williams turnovers that lead to short fields. And Saquon Barkley will actually get the ball. Eagles win it." -- CBS Sports Senior NFL analyst Pete Prisco on why he likes Philly to bounce back with a 30-21 win over the Bears at home. To see the rest of his Week 13 picks, click here.
