Ranking NFL Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidates: Jaxson Dart enters wide-open race

The NFL season always brings surprises and this year has been no different. 

The draft prospects who had curried the most favor during the process got off to a slow start. Running backs Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty nearly doubled their total rushing yards in Week 4. Travis Hunter has not yet been the player expected. Browns defensive tackle Mason Graham was the subject of critical evaluations and rash judgments during the preseason. Buccaneers wide receiver Emeka Egbuka had garnered a lot of praise during the preseason and has lived up to every bit of the hype. 

In some ways, the Week 4 Rookie of the Year handicaps are similar to the preseason. In other ways, it is very different. Here are my five favorites for both Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, as well as a sleeper for each. Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Monday afternoon. New users are eligible for up to $200 in bonus bets. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

1. WR Emeka Egbuka, Buccaneers (+300)
2. QB Jaxson Dart, Giants (+600)
3. QB Cam Ward, Titans (+2200)
4. RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders (+280)
5. RB Omarion Hampton, Chargers (+500)

In addition to those five names, there are three others who belong in the conversation at this stage of the season: Browns running back Quinshon Judkins (+1500), Colts tight end Tyler Warren (+650) and Panthers wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (+1500). 

Over the past 10 years, Offensive Rookie of the Year has been awarded to five quarterbacks, three running backs and two wide receivers. A tight end has never won the award, which was part of the reason, along with having so many mouths to feed in the Indianapolis offense, Warren was left off the list. Quarterbacks have won four of the past six seasons, which is why Ward DID make the list. 

Egbuka is tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns among all NFL players and leads all rookies in receiving yards (282). With Mike Evans' injury and Chris Godwin returning from an injury of his own, Tampa Bay is expected to feature the rookie heavily in its pass game. 

Dart stepped into the starting lineup for the first time this week and led New York to a victory. He contributes on the ground, in addition to his air production. Tennessee has allowed pressure on 45.6% of its dropbacks, according to TruMedia, and the team is not exactly flush with talented pass catcher. Yet, Ward has been poised and makes a handful of entertaining plays, good and bad, each week. Quarterbacks have an inherent advantage when it comes to winning league rewards. 

Jeanty is coming off his best game to date. He recorded 138 yards rushing and three total touchdowns in a loss to the Bears. Hampton also had his best game this week. Hampton had 165 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. Los Angeles is expected to lean even more into the rookie given Najee Harris' injury. 

Sleeper: QB Dillon Gabriel, Browns (+7500)

It is difficult to pinpoint a sleeper among this year's rookie class, because the top is so defined. Hunter (+5000) is one to consider, but the production has not been there and his time will be split between each side of the ball. 

Gabriel is intriguing because he looked good during the preseason and, aside from his height, is a perfect fit for Kevin Stefanski's offense, because he throws an accurate, on-time ball. The problem is that the offensive line has been without its two starting tackles most of the season and the wide receivers have not been making plays. 

Commanders running back Jacory "Bill" Croskey-Merritt would inspire more confidence if he were to receive a larger carry share, but Washington seems to be finding every reason not to give him more touches. 

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Defensive Rookie of the Year

1. LB Carson Schwesinger, Browns (+500)
2. LB Jihaad Campbell, Eagles (+400)
3. EDGE Abdul Carter, Giants (+140)
4. EDGE James Pearce Jr., Falcons (+3000)
5. S Xavier Watts, Falcons (+3000)

In the eyes of Vegas, there are three clear favorites for Defensive Rookie of the Year: Schwesinger, Campbell and Carter, then the odds fall off a cliff. There may not be a single player who produces sacks, fumbles or interceptions at a level to run away with this award. 

Over the past 10 years, six pass rushers, three cornerbacks and one linebacker have won the award. Pass rushers have won five of the past six awards. Those players averaged 8.2 sacks as rookies. Most recently, Jared Verse won the award with 4.5 sacks. Shaq Leonard (2018) is the last pure linebacker to win the award since Luke Kuechly in 2012. Leonard stuffed the stat sheet with 163 total tackles, seven sacks, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and two interceptions. 

Schwesinger is on pace for 132 tackles and four sacks. Campbell has a forced fumble and an interception to his name. His background as a pass rusher gives him an opportunity to diversify the stat sheet. Schwesinger has been effective creating pressure and finishing plays early in the season. 

Carter and Pearce have been promising but each has 0.5 sacks. The former is coming off his best game of the season having recorded eight pressures versus a woeful Chargers offensive line. The latter has shown an ability to win in a variety of ways, but has played not even half of Carter's snaps. 

Watts has two interceptions and has played well. If he continues on that trajectory, the turnovers will be impossible to ignore in a race that may not feature any other players with several turnover-worthy plays. 

Sleeper: DT Derrick Harmon, Steelers (+4000)

A defensive tackle has not been the recipient since Aaron Donald in 2014. In that year, Donald recorded nine sacks and two forced fumbles. Harmon has five pressures and one sack in two games. If the defense carries Pittsburgh to the postseason and Harmon lives up to his first-round billing, then the narrative writes itself. 

Cardinals cornerback Will Johnson (+2800) and Browns' Graham (+3000) are a few others to monitor.