Patriots vs. Bills preview, prediction: Josh Allen and Bills look to remain unbeaten in AFC East showdown
Let's preview Sunday's prime-time clash between AFC East rivals
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4 min read
We have ourselves a divisional matchup to put a bow on Sunday's action in Week 5. For this prime-time affair, we head to Orchard Park, where Highmark Stadium will play host to the Buffalo Bills taking on the New England Patriots. This is the first contest between these rivals this season, and it comes at a fascinating time in both of their campaigns.
For Buffalo, they continue to be looked at as the runaway favorite not just in the AFC East, but for the conference as a whole. Moreover, they are the betting favorite to win Super Bowl LX and are currently riding a perfect 4-0 record into Week 5, so they are firing on all cylinders at the moment. As for the Patriots, they are 2-2 and are still lengths away in their rebuild to truly contend with Buffalo in the division. However, there are signs that they are on the right track. New England looks stellar in a blowout win over Carolina in Week 4, and Drake Maye looks to be firmly within a second-year breakout. If they can hang around in this matchup, it could prove to be further validation that they are on the rise.
Before we dive further into this matchup, let's make sure you have all the information you need to check out this "Sunday Night Football" duel.
Where to watch Patriots vs. Bills live
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 5 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium (Buffalo)
- TV: NBC | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Odds: Bills -8.5, O/U 49.5 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Key questions
- Can Dalton Kincaid continue to be a factor? It's been a strong first month of the season for the Buffalo Bills tight end, and he faces an interesting matchup on Sunday. In Week 1, the Patriots were torched by Raiders star tight end Brock Bowers (five catches for 103 yards). Lost in the shuffle of last week's dominating win over the Panthers is that they allowed Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans to combine for eight catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns. Kincaid's three receiving touchdowns entering Week 5 are tied for the my by a tight end in the NFL.
- Will Buffalo slow down Drake Maye's rushing ability? Maye's efficiency (74.0% completion rate and 109.4 passer rating) through the first month is eye-popping, but the Patriots quarterback is truly at his best when he's also gashing defenses with his legs. Entering Week 5, Buffalo is surrendering 199 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, which is the most in the NFL.
- Does Stefon Diggs return to Buffalo with a bang? This will be Stefon Diggs' first trip back to Buffalo since the Bills traded him to the Texans during the 2024 offseason. The wideout spent four years with the franchise and topped 100 receptions in each of those campaigns. Diggs already faced the Bills last season as a member of the Texans, but that game was in Houston. After a breakout 101-yard performance last week, Diggs could be ramping up for a big return. However, he'll have a tough task against a Bills secondary that is allowing an NFL-low 125.8 passing yards per game.
- Will New England cough up the football? The Patriots kept a clean sheet in the turnover department against the Panthers last week. While that's a step in the right direction, New England has been a bit turnover-prone through the first month, particularly in the backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson as a main culprit. That'll be a storyline to monitor in this game, especially with Joey Bosa lurking. Buffalo's pass rusher has four forced fumbles this season.
X factor
The conversation will naturally gravitate to the quarterback matchup, but this game could be won or lost by how well Buffalo's running game fares. Of course, Josh Allen's legs are a key component to that, but let's not ignore the stellar start to the season James Cook is having. He leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns and is second in the league in rushing yards. Cook now is set to square off against a Patriots run defense that is allowing 77.5 rushing yards per game, which is the second fewest in the NFL entering Week 5.
Patriots vs. Bills prediction, pick
The Patriots are on their way towards truly rivaling the Bills, but they are not there yet. As encouraging as New England looked last week, it was against the Carolina Panthers, who have a claim to be the worst team in the NFL in 2025. Sure, Drake Maye's numbers have been sensational through four weeks, but the eye test still shows the occasional zit that pops up once or twice a game. That could prove fatal, particularly against a bona fide Super Bowl contender like the Bills in their own building. In recent history, New England also hasn't fared particularly well at stacking wins together. In their last 11 games following a win, they are 0-11. Prediction: Bills -8.5 | Bills 33, Patriots 21
