NFL Week 8 betting: Chiefs, Steelers in expert's best money line parlays for favorites and underdogs

Though there are six teams on a bye in Week 8 of the 2025 NFL season, we've still got 13 games on the schedule headlined by Aaron Rodgers facing his former team when the Green Bay Packers visit the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Philadelphia Eagles getting a rematch with the New York Giants and the New York Jets searching for their first win when they visit the Cincinnati Bengals. The Steelers and Jets are underdogs while the Eagles are favorites at top sportsbooks.

If you're looking to get into parlay betting and NFL betting for Week 8 NFL games, be sure to see what SportsLine expert Jeff Hochman has put together. He's going with two parlays for Week 8, with one featuring only favorites on the money line and the other featuring only underdogs.

Week 8 NFL money line favorites parlay

Betting heavy favorites can be a solid strategy if you want to bet on a 3-team NFL money line parlay. This approach focuses on teams with odds of -150 or better, which means you lean towards high-probability outcomes. By pairing three teams that usually have odds between -150 and -350 or even higher, you're not only aiming for consistent, modest returns, but you're also stacking the deck in your favor for a higher chance of winning. Remember that you can still parlay a favorite with odds of -140 or less to avoid laying 2.5 points, which can significantly impact your chances of winning. Remember, you have to win all three legs for a successful wager.

According to BetMGM data, NFL moneyline favorites at -115 or shorter posted a 68% win percentage in 2023, with a 66.5% rate in 2022. Over the six-season period from 2018-2024, NFL moneyline favorites maintained a 66.6% win rate (1,013-508-7). The strength of favorites correlates directly with their odds. In sports betting, if you see teams with odds between -150 and -200, they generally have a solid chance of winning, with around a 60-65% success rate. Teams that are even bigger favorites, with odds from -250 to -400, tend to be more reliable, showing win rates of about 70% to 80%. The 2024 NFL season stood out for favorites, with an overall win rate hitting 71.8%.

NFL favorites dominated the opening week, winning 13 of 16 games for an 81.2% success rate. The second Week saw more competitive results, with favorites winning 9 of 16 games for a 56.2% success rate. In Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season, 12 out of 16 favorites won outright, giving betting favorites a 75.0% success rate. In Week 4, favorites struggled on a relative basis, going 10-5-1. Two weeks ago, NFL betting favorites had their worst Week this season, going 8-5. In Week 6, NFL betting chalk bounced back by winning 11 of 15 games. Last Week, favorites had another excellent performance, going 12-3 after both chalk won on MNF.

NFL betting favorites have won 75 out of 107 games in the first seven weeks of the 2025 season, achieving an overall success rate of 70.0%. This figure is slightly lower than last year's rate of 71.8%, but it has increased over the past two weeks. What does this mean for Week 8? Will there be any upsets?

Kansas City Chiefs over Washington Commanders

The Chiefs have rediscovered their championship form at precisely the right moment, entering their Week 8 Monday night matchup against Washington as 9.5 to 10.5-point favorites with commanding -650 money line odds. Kansas City's 31-0 shutout victory over Las Vegas in Week 7 marked the first shutout of Andy Reid's illustrious coaching career. It showcased the Chiefs' offensive firepower with the return of wide receiver Rashee Rice. Patrick Mahomes is playing at an MVP level, ranking third in QBR (77.9) with 1,800 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and only two interceptions through seven games.

Defensively, Kansas City ranks third in scoring defense (17.7 points per game) and fifth in total defense (280.3 yards per game). The unit has generated crucial turnovers and pressures at opportune moments, with the defensive front recording consistent pressure rates. Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels is dealing with a hamstring injury that may limit his mobility—the exact attribute that makes him dangerous. His status is still up in the air as of Wednesday. A healthy Marcus Mariota is a downgrade. Even if Daniels plays, the Commanders rank 28th in yards allowed per play (5.8 per game) and will struggle to contain Kansas City's diverse offensive attack.

The Chiefs have won four of their last five games and are hitting their stride as the schedule intensifies. Patrick Mahomes has a 9-4 record on Monday Night Football in his career, including 8-2 when favored. This includes the Chiefs' most recent Monday night game on October 6, when they lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. There is no way Mahomes and company will drop two straight games on MNF in the same season. 

New England Patriots over Cleveland Browns

The  Patriots have emerged as one of the NFL's most surprising stories, riding a four-game winning streak into their Week 8 home matchup against Cleveland as 6.5 to 7-point favorites with a hefty money line of -320. Drake Maye has elevated his game in his second season, breaking Tom Brady's franchise record for completion percentage by completing 91.3% of his passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee. Head coach Mike Vrabel got his revenge after being fired by the Titans, although the first half remained competitive. I don't think the Patriots will have a letdown, as Vrabel won't allow that to happen.

Maye's four-game stretch without a turnover has coincided perfectly with New England's winning streak, and his efficiency metrics are exceptional. He's completed over 80% of his passes in three games this season, demonstrating excellent decision-making and mobility. The Patriots rank fifth in scoring defense and have allowed just 312.9 yards per game. They have faced the easiest schedule up to Week 7, but their underlying metrics remain strong.

Cleveland enters at 2-5 with significant offensive limitations, ranking 30th in total offense (270.7 yards per game) and 30th in passing yards per game (178.1). We might get a look at Shedeur Sanders at some point in this game. The Browns have underperformed offensively, averaging only 16.1 points per game, which puts them near the bottom of the league (30th overall). They're up against a Patriots defense that's good at creating turnovers and limiting big plays. On the other side, New England's offensive line has performed surprisingly well this season, ranking fourth in pass-blocking efficiency according to Pro Football Focus, allowing pressure on 32.9% of plays. That's key when playing a front seven of Cleveland's ability, although their road/home splits are significant. New England continues its winning ways.

Baltimore Ravens over Chicago Bears

The Ravens desperately need to win their Week 8 home game against the Chicago Bears to end a disappointing 1-5 start, and the conditions are favorable for a strong performance. Most importantly, Lamar Jackson is expected to return from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for two games before the bye week. Jackson's absence exposed the Ravens' offensive limitations with backup Cooper Rush, as Baltimore was outscored 61-13 in those two contests. The organization has always been careful not to rush Jackson back from injury.

The matchup favors Baltimore significantly. Chicago's offense has committed 15 turnovers in its last four games, creating additional possessions for opponents. While the Bears enter 4-2, their defensive rankings are middling—25th in total defense and scoring defense. The Bears have had an easier schedule compared to the Ravens, who have faced the most difficult slate this season.

Baltimore is also getting healthier across the roster, with Ronnie Stanley, Kyle Hamilton, and Marlon Humphrey returning before the bye, and potentially Roquan Smith, Chidobe Awuzie, and Patrick Ricard joining Jackson for this matchup. The Ravens, with Jackson as quarterback, have a top-10 offensive EPA, and he is 24-5 against the NFC in his career. If Jackson chooses to wait another week, I am confident in Cooper Rush at a significantly lower price with an additional week to prepare. John Harbaugh has a record of 14-3 after a bye since he began coaching the Ravens in 2008. Take Baltimore in this spot.

Week 8 NFL money line underdogs parlay

A popular option is available if you're willing to take on a bit more risk for a potentially higher reward. Underdog money line parlays offer the largest possible payouts in the NFL betting landscape. Combining three underdogs with odds like +200, +150, and +300 could result in payouts exceeding 20-to-1 or higher. The best part is that, due to the high payouts, underdog parlays can still be profitable even when winning only a small percentage of bets. For example, hitting just one of several large underdog parlays could offset multiple losses and generate overall profit. NFL underdogs have historically outperformed expectations in specific situations, with home underdogs of +2 to +3 winning outright 46-48% of the time.

New York Jets over Cincinnati Bengals

The money line for the home team is significantly inflated. We should place a bet on this on principle alone. Tyrod Taylor is expected to become the starting quarterback for New York, taking over from the ineffective Justin Fields. This change represents a substantial improvement in several areas. Taylor averaged 36 pass attempts and 152 yards per game in limited action, compared to Fields' averages of 21 attempts and 130 yards. While Taylor threw two interceptions in relief against Carolina, his Week 3 start against Tampa Bay produced two touchdowns on strong accuracy. He was 26-of-36 for 197 yards.

The Jets have a solid defense, holding their last two foes to 13 points. They rank 14th in yards per play defense (5.3), while the Bengals are ranked 31st. New York possesses one of the league's premier cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner, a two-time first-team All-Pro. He represents an elite matchup tool and can neutralize one side of the field against the Bengals' receiving corps.

When you bet a significant underdog, you need that team to at least be better at "something" than the other team. That box is checked, and if the offense can put up at least 20 points, this will be an easy upset winner. There is no way Joe Flacco and these Bengals should be this large of a favorite. It will be the coldest game (mid-40s) that both teams have played so far, which typically leads to crazy outcomes. Be on the lookout for an upset involving a winless team.

New Orleans Saints over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We have seen this before from the Saints. They defeated Tampa Bay in 2021 as 4-point home dogs 2021. Tom Brady was the quarterback for the Buccaneers, while the Saints had Trevor Siemian and Jameis Winston take snaps in that victory. They have four outright wins against their NFC South rival over the last 10 meetings. Division games are usually closely contested when the line is less than five, and home underdogs in the division have been the sharp side for decades.

The Buccaneers are coming off a brutal Monday Night Football loss to the Detroit Lions, falling 24-9 in their first road defeat. This short week presents significant challenges for Tampa Bay, as the Bucs have just six days to prepare. Travel fatigue is often one of the most understated storylines in professional sports, and the Buccaneers' schedule has been particularly taxing with three games on short rest this season.

The road team's injuries are piling up and it's not exactly at the best time. The Buccaneers suffered two devastating blows during their Monday night loss, with star wide receiver Mike Evans going down with a broken collarbone and concussion. Haason Reddick was carted off the field with a knee and ankle injury in the fourth quarter. That certainly hurts their pass rush.

The Saints' performance in Week 4 against Buffalo, staying competitive with a Super Bowl contender, indicates they can exceed their record when execution improves. They achieved more first downs and ran more total plays, but were outgained by 58 yards. New Orleans has been competitive at home with all three losses by 7 points or less. Rookie head coach Kellen Moore has his team playing hard. This game has upset written all over it.

Pittsburgh Steelers over Green Bay Packers

This Sunday Night Football matchup features one of Week 8's most intriguing storylines. By winning this game, Rodgers would defeat every NFL franchise in the modern era. Green Bay has a record of 4-1-1 but faces a challenging schedule quirk against an angry team coming off a narrow 2-point loss.

The Steelers have ten days to prepare after losing by two points on the road last Thursday, while the Packers will play their second consecutive road game and four of their previous five games away from home. That is not an ideal situation, especially when playing in Pittsburgh. Interestingly, Green Bay will also be participating in its second outdoor road matchup; the Packers lost the first one 13-10 against Cleveland in Week 3. Mike Tomlin's teams are 7-2 after losing on Thursday Night Football, including 5-1 in the last six tries. The extra prep time is another advantage for the home team.

Pittsburgh operates in the NFL's most challenging home environment. The Steelers rank first in home-field advantage, with a 37-21-1 record at home since 2018, with a substantial penalty advantage over opponents. The crowd noise at Acrisure Stadium generates false starts and pre-snap penalties at a rate 42.5% higher than any other NFL venue. The Packers rank 28th, averaging 8.3 penalties per game. Combining all the above mentioned data points, I believe the Steelers are an excellent bet to win outright at plus money.