NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with a Monday Night Football doubleheader that should stretch deep into the night thanks to a 10p.m. ET kickoff for the Seahawks and Texans in Seattle. The NFL after dark! 

The latter game is a lot less enticing from a betting standpoint than the opener, with Buccaneers at Lions sporting a robust total of 53.5 versus the 41.5 total for the late game. Therefore, our MNF betting guide is definitely going to lean a little more heavily on the late game. 

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We had a very profitable day last Monday and yesterday's weekend betting guide was a success, hitting over .500 on our ATS picks and player props, so let's try and roll that cash into some Monday night winnings as well. If you want to follow me over at SportsLine I'm on a 9-0 run at the moment on NFL picks, let's stay hot! 

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Best bets for Monday Night Football

Lions -6 vs. Buccaneers

This number moving towards the Lions, despite the possibility of both Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka playing, is pretty telling to me. I liked the Lions initially this week, mostly because I think the general consensus is you can't bet against Baker Mayfield, especially when he's getting more than a field goal.

But the Lions at home are a different beast. And the Lions at home, in primetime, having just been embarrassed? Well, that's just dangerous. And it's exactly what the Lions are, having been thumped by the Chiefs last Sunday night and now hosting a very good Tampa Bay team.

The Lions know they need to win this game to keep pace with the Packers in the NFC North. They also know how important a win would be for NFC seeding. These are the games that make the difference between playing at home or on the road once the playoffs get here. 

Detroit loves to run, but it's not afraid to attack teams vertically. This feels like a Jared Goff explosion game against a Bucs secondary that can be attacked. It also feels like one of those primetime games where Jameson Williams goes absolutely bonkers and the injured Bucs are forced to try to keep up with a high-flying Lions offense. 

Texans at Seahawks Under 41.5

The problem with this game is mostly that it starts at 10 p.m. on a Monday night. Have some respect for the East Coast dads out there, NFL! The other problem with the game is it's more than likely going to be sluggish, with two of the best defenses squaring off in Seattle late in the evening. 

The Texans rank first in points per game allowed and the Seahawks rank sixth. Both teams rank in the top five in points allowed per play and top six in yards allowed per play. 

Seattle's offense has scored this season and the Texans took a leap up by dropping a 40-burger on the Ravens. But the Texans are bottom five in plays allowed to opponents, so the only real way this game gets out of hand is if Seattle manages to hit some explosive plays and draws Houston into more of a shootout.

I tend to think both teams lean on the run games and try not to make mistakes versus attempting to attack downfield. We have two alpha wideouts in this matchup in Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Nico Collins. But we also have a pair of alpha cornerbacks in Derek Stingley and Devon Witherspoon, assuming the latter is able to play. 

Regardless, the Seahawks will shift coverage towards Collins and I expect both defenses to work on shutting down those key components of the pass game. 

In short, this should be a rock fight and we're betting it accordingly. 

Monday Night Football player props

Rachaad White Over 3.5 receptions

This is a tad juicy but I'm OK with laying it for a couple of reasons. One, White's the featured back for this Bucs offense with Bucky Irving out. They've essentially given him a similar role, albeit with a little less involvement in the passing game. But he catches plenty of passes! 

Since stepping into the full-time role, White has 12 targets over three games and has brought in all but one of those. Additionally, Alim McNeil is back for the Lions in this game, which is going to make running against Detroit a lot tougher and put even more pressure on Baker Mayfield in the backfield. 

I fully expect several dump offs to White or designed screens early in the game to alleviate pressure. And if the spread and total are accurate (and I think they are), there could be lots of late game receiving work for the Buccaneers running back. 

Jared Goff 3+ passing TDs +178

If you want to bet the 3+ you'll need to click through above and adjust as (long story short) it's listed Over 1.5 touchdowns for Goff, which is -190. The expectation then, obviously, is Goff throws two passing touchdowns. 

But there's a pretty wide disparity on DraftKings between Goff throwing two touchdowns and Goff throwing three touchdowns, which checks in at a robust +194. The Lions will need to attack the Bucs through the air, and as such, I fully expect Goff to be throwing more frequently down by the goal line. 

Detroit's sporting a robust team total of 30.5, so there's actually room for a rushing touchdown and three Goff passing touchdowns built into the spread. If the Lions offense goes nuclear, which I think it will, Goff paying off a nearly 2-1 number with three passing touchdowns isn't out of the question at all. He's already done it twice this season and this is a prime spot for it.

Kenneth Walker Under 7.5 receiving yards

The Seahawks offense simply doesn't use the running backs in the passing game much. The reception numbers are hilarious: Walker's Under 1.5 receptions is -166, which I would normally want to bet, but it's just too juicy. 

Instead let's look at his receiving yardage prop, which is an equally ridiculous 7.5, slightly juiced to the under. Walker has exactly one catch in every single game this year except for Week 1 when he hauled in three balls. 

The Texans also don't give up much in the passing game to running backs, with Bucky Irving (a very good pass catcher) the only back all season long to do anything of substance against them through the air. 

Maybe the Seahawks come out with a surprise screen early, but it's really not their style and I think they'll try to be straightforward in this matchup against an elite defense. 

Anytime touchdown picks

Jameson Williams +180

Would obviously prefer Williams be north of 2-1 here, but we'll take this price as it's the best in the market currently. Williams won't draw top-shelf coverage with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs to worry about, but he's as explosive as it gets on offense and should have some play designs built in to get him deep looks  against a secondary that is giving up 7 yards per pass attempt on the season. 

Put Goff and Williams on the home track against a secondary that can be attacked and John Morton is going to scheme up some looks in both the run and passing game to get Williams into favorable spaces.   

Tez Johnson anytime TD +380

This is admittedly a little speculative as Evans and Egbuka could be on the field. That would significantly hamper Johnson's chances of finding pay dirt in back-to-back weeks. But he's being priced as if both the guys ahead of him on the depth chart are playing and playing the whole game. 

Johnson saw action last week because of injuries and with those alpha receivers banged up, it wouldn't be surprising if the Bucs rotated their receivers a little bit more than normal. Additionally, if either is ruled out -- and I believe both are probably true game-time decisions -- then Johnson's price would crater, so we're grabbing it now. 

Mayfield was effusive in his praise for Johnson following the rookie's touchdown last week, noting how well he adjusted in a critical spot of the game. There's trust there and we're going to hope Mayfield builds on it for a very nice payday. 

A.J. Barner anytime TD +370

The Texans don't have many weak spots defensively. They've been nibbled on a little bit by secondary options and tight ends, however. See: Davis Allen scoring Week 1, Brenton Strange being effective for the Jaguars, etc. 

So we'll take one more longshot flier on a nearly 4-1 option in the late game with Barner, who has been a real red zone threat for Sam Darnold. He's got five targets on the season in the red zone and has converted them into four touchdowns. He's scored three touchdowns on all three of his targets inside the 10-yard line.