NFL Week 13 early picks: Jump on the Bills now, plus totals and a Thanksgiving Day play

Welcome to Feast Week! Yes, that phrase is generally reserved (and hopefully not trademarked) for college basketball, but this is a week that is all about football. We have three Thanksgiving Day games, a Black Friday game and the normal Sunday slate. All due respect to Ryder Cup years with playoff baseball, but it's the most glorious time on the sports calendar, in my opinion. 

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We had a mixed bag of wins in Week 12 -- getting the Chiefs -3 instead of the consensus -3.5 was a massive win because it ended up hitting on the number. We were just wrong on the Lions (they were looking ahead) and MNF over, but the Eagles vs. Cowboys Under was absolutely the right side and a lot less sweaty with the extra two points we got from jumping on it at the start of the week. 

Let's dive into some early Week 13 plays.

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Bet it now: Texans vs. Colts Under 44.5

The Colts are laying 4.5 points here, which seems about right, because -4.5 is the new -3 and the Colts are at home. 

I think it's a smidge too much, but part of me worries the Colts could jump out to a lead here and force the Texans into throwing a bunch, generate pressure on C.J. Stroud and win a low-scoring Jonathan Taylor party. And that's the key: this game should be low-scoring regardless of which direction it goes. If the Texans bottle up Taylor -- which is entirely possible -- they're not likely to score a ton of points. 

Look at last week against the Bills in a similar spot (albeit at home): 23-19 feels about right for this game and I want to make sure I get as much cushion as possible for these two teams to not score points.

I expect the Colts to play it close to the vest and not throw a ton against a stingy Texans defense, because they're only winning this game if Daniel Jones doesn't turn it over. 

Lots of running the ball and minimal points incoming. I'd expect it to close around 42.5. 

Bet it now: Saints vs. Dolphins Under 42.5

Sometimes in life, you've got to forget that two teams are kind of bad on defense and simply embrace the fact that two teams might not be very good. And in those moments, we want to identify an Under and attack it. 

This is one of those moments. The Saints are all over the place on offense, having played great at Carolina as pretty big dogs in Tyler Shough's second start and then doing absolutely nothing against the Falcons at home as short favorites just a week later. Such is the NFL. 

The Dolphins are coming off a bye after snatching a 16-13 win over Washington overseas. And that game, despite the unusual conditions, feels like what we might get in this spot. 

I think we'll see quite a lot of running from both teams in this game and minimal explosive plays. Alvin Kamara is dinged up, the Dolphins are missing plenty of pieces and this game feels like the most obvious sacrifice spot for a multi-box on your televisions in the 1 p.m. slate on the entire season. 

This has 17-14 written all over it. 

Bet it now: Bills -3.5 vs. Steelers

Last week's performance by Josh Allen against the Texans was as bad as you can get. Allen was humiliated and the Bills' chances of winning the AFC East were probably snuffed out. Buffalo now sits seventh in the AFC playoff standings, right on the verge of making or missing the postseason. 

Allen has to go on the road again, but he gets a Steelers defense that has been very hit or miss this season. I think we're about to get two weeks of peak Josh Allen, with the reigning MVP doing MVP things.

Just two weeks ago he threw and ran for a total of six touchdowns, and I wouldn't be surprised if we got at least four from him here in what's become a pretty big must-win situation for the Bills. 

It's unfortunate timing for the Steelers, particularly if the Ravens hold serve on Thanksgiving.  

Bet it now: Chiefs vs. Cowboys Under 52.5

I wanted to ID non-Thanksgiving bets for this matchup and save everything else for my Thanksgiving Day betting guide, but this number is too good to pass on. 

The total makes sense because of how impressive the Cowboys have been on offense and how bad they've been on defense. But acquiring Quinnen Williams may have morphed them into a better unit, and the Chiefs aren't the same offensive team they've been in years past.

Kansas City is more than happy to string out drives and run the football (see: 30 carries for Kareem Hunt versus the Colts). They also aren't very efficient in the red zone at the moment and play a style of defense that minimizes explosive plays. 

We'll get points here and I wouldn't be shocked if things got a little loose in the second half, but this doesn't profile as the high-scoring Thanksgiving affair that many people might expect when they see the matchup. I wouldn't be stunned if this closed at 50.5.