NFL Week 12 early picks: Jump on the Chiefs and Lions, plus other early bets
CBS Sports NFL expert Will Brinson breaks down all the bets to jump on early for Week 12 of the NFL season
Friendly reminder: Las Vegas lines are sharp! We were a single point away from a sweep in this column last week, nailing the Patriots, 49ers and Panthers. The Seahawks vs. Rams game came down to Los Angeles needing to hold Seattle to a field goal instead of a touchdown before the Seahawks really made things sweaty in an attempt to win the game, but no broom for us. Sad!
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It's alright as we'll take 3-1 all day, every day. We're still up by a decent margin at SportsLine for the year, so make sure and cruise over and join. Use promo code WINNERS and you'll get 60% off the full season price. My guy R.J. White is currently going nuclear. I blame the Raiders for me being a little less than nuclear.
Let's dive into some early Week 12 plays.
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Bet it now: Chiefs -3 vs. Colts
Honestly I thought the Chiefs would be -4.5 here, at bare minimum. That's no disrespect to the Colts at all, but Kansas City is 5-5 and has to win this game or else they legitimately could not make the playoffs. The Colts are a good team!
But Kansas City laying less than a field goal at home is a borderline automatic bet. I put this on SportsLine at an even -3 on DraftKings Monday night -- I'm guessing there's an editor's note above and that this has moved higher by the time this publishes -- and it's just too low.
The Colts could win this game. Jonathan Taylor could come out of the bye and run wild or Daniel Jones could storm through the back door. But this is a must-play at Chiefs -3.
I'm willing to wager on Patrick Mahomes laying a field goal at home in a game against Jones. If Mahomes loses, he's staring down the likelihood of not only missing the AFC title game for the first time ever but also missing the playoffs for the first time ever. It's not a perfect matchup, but the Chiefs are coming off a bad road loss to the Broncos, so the market is down.
It's trying to move up and I want to get them at a field goal.
Bet it now: Lions -10.5 vs Giants
I have a few rules in life. Never get fewer than 12 hours of sleep, never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city, never date someone with a tattoo of a dagger on their body and never blink when the Lions are double-digit favorites at home against a bad secondary after an embarrassing primetime loss.
This is an absolute smash spot for the Lions and this line will move up.
The Giants will likely get Jaxson Dart back here, and if they do, the coaching staff will be under strict orders from ownership not to run him into the ground against a hard-hitting Lions defense.
If they don't, it means a lot of Jameis Winston against a predatory secondary that will flip aggressive throws into good field position and/or points.
This is a decent number of points because it's double digits, but it's not enough. The Lions will wreck the Giants in this spot. I would lay up to 14.
Bet it now: Eagles vs. Cowboys Under 49.5
Oh yeah, no chance this line should be this high.
The Cowboys defense looked substantially better against the Raiders on Monday. Yeah, it's a low bar there, I get it. But this line is severely underrating how good the Eagles defense is now. Howie Roseman did his thing at the trade deadline and now they're loaded.
Dallas won't be able to pass aggressively here and the Eagles like to squat on the ball. This number should be closer to 46.5.
Bet it now: 49ers vs. Panthers Over 47.5
Complete opposite situation here, as the 49ers have Brock Purdy back and will be able to shred the Panthers early on offense. What will result is Carolina throwing it around on the depleted 49ers defense.
San Francisco might cover, but the Panthers are the most easily swayed tempo team in football. They want to run and if they don't do it early, they'll bail and let Bryce Young throw for 448 yards -- the most ever in a single game by a Panthers quarterback and somehow no one noticed.
This has all the makings of a sneaky shootout.
