Grading NFL QBs on rookie deals: Drake Maye is acing the 2025 season while two others are flunking out
Eleven quarterbacks are still on rookie contracts, but only a few look like long-term answers through 10 weeks
By
Mike Renner
•
7 min read
The NFL hasn't been more reliant on a young crop of quarterbacks in recent history than it is right now. Eleven of the 32 starting quarterbacks -- more than one-third of the league -- are still on their rookie deals. Of those, 10 were first-round picks.
With that in mind, I've been tracking those quarterbacks closely throughout the season, as not only will their respective franchises be reliant on their development, but also the quality of the product across the NFL.
Drake Maye: A+
He's the co-betting favorite to win NFL MVP at FanDuel and has taken the Patriots from worst to first -- what else is there to say? If you want to quibble, he's taking too many sacks (35, second most in the NFL), but that's where the negatives end.
just an excellent throw from Drake Maye on that Kyle Williams catch & run TD.
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) November 10, 2025
across the field while getting hit, puts it right on the money and Williams doesn't even have to break stride. Top-tier stuff. pic.twitter.com/1ldQl30vhN
Caleb Williams: B
From year one to year two, there have been glaring areas of improvement with Williams' development and glaring areas of stagnation as well. The sack-prone Williams we saw as a rookie is no more. He's on pace to take fewer than half of the 68 sacks we saw from him as a rookie. That's allowed for a much more consistent flow of the Bears offense this season.
On the flip side, it would be more consistent if he didn't have as many pure misses on tape. His adjusted completion percentage has taken a step back even from his rookie season, as he's especially struggled finding his mark when on the move. The scary thing is, the Bears offense is already effective with so much more potential for Williams yet to be unlocked.
One of the five best throws of the year.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 11, 2025
4th and 4. Lawrence walks Thuney back into Caleb's lap.
(Ball should definitely go to Burden but) absurd velocity on the move. Ball explodes. Moore thinks he has to work back to it and tracks it poorly. Still should have been caught. pic.twitter.com/2gU8ljKVgo
Jaxson Dart: B
Dart isn't perfect, and his play style has quite obviously not been sustainable, but the Giants offense should not be as effective as it's been under his tenure. He's 12th among starters in EPA/play this season and is responsible for 17 scores in only seven starts. That's without No. 1 receiver Malik Nabers for all but one of those starts as well. His ability to create something out of nothing is already among the best in the entire NFL. It's quite clear the Giants have something in their 2025 first-rounder.
Are words even necessary on this one?
— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) November 10, 2025
Giants. Quarterback. Jaxson. Dart. pic.twitter.com/98DKkH0V28
What remains to be seen, however, is if it's sustainable. Dart has taken 77 hits in his seven starts and has already been evaluated for concussions on four occasions. He won't make it through his rookie contract at that rate. Can whoever is the next Giants head coach reign in Dart's recklessness while still getting the out-of-structure magic? That's the big question that still needs answered.
Giants coaching candidates after Brian Daboll firing, plus one big name already ruled out
Tyler Sullivan
Bo Nix: C-
Nix is one of those hot-button quarterbacks where an honest review of his strengths and weaknesses is a rarity. To a certain segment of the Broncos fan base, his play is the reason Denver is 8-2. To another segment of national media who never saw him as a first-rounder to begin with, his play has been bench-worthy so far. The truth is somewhere in the middle.
Nix has almost all of the traits you want from a franchise quarterback. He's been the best quarterback in the entire league at avoiding sacks when pressured (9.3% rate) while also leading the league in game-winning drives. The one trait he quite obviously has not shown this season is a pretty darn big one, though ... accuracy.
By pretty much any metric you want to use, Nix has been one of the least accurate quarterbacks in the NFL this season. His misses have come at every level of the field but are particularly egregious downfield. He's completed only 15 of 47 deep passes this season, and those misses have hamstrung the Broncos offense. Considering this was his biggest worry coming out of Oregon, him regressing in year two should scare all Broncos fans.
Cam Ward: C-
No quarterback in the NFL is fighting a tougher uphill battle each game than the Titans signal-caller. His top three receivers of late have been two Day 3 rookies and a journeyman who's been on four teams in three years. Oh, and he's already had his head coach fired. You can't evaluate him purely statistically because it's the worst situation in the entire NFL.
Obviously, he still has things to clean up, but Week 8 was probably the best game of Cam Ward's #Titans career thus far. He's still getting absolutely 0 help from the supporting cast, but he threw some SEEDS pic.twitter.com/eNZytbESgP
— Drew Beatty (@IronCityFilm) October 29, 2025
That being said, there is one area that has to improve and fast. Amazon's Sam Schwartzstein affectionately calls it SCRACK: sack EPA combined with scramble EPA. It's a stat where playmakers such as Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes routinely lead the league. Ward is not only dead last in the stat this season; he's been more than twice as bad as any other quarterback in the NFL. For someone with his athletic prowess, he has to be more willing to take off as a runner when nothing is there instead of taking bad sacks (38 -- most in the NFL).
There are tons of special plays on Ward's tape to get excited about, and he's almost never looked overwhelmed despite the stats never looking great. There are encouraging signs, but he can't do it all on his own.
C.J. Stroud: D+
There are valid excuses for Stroud's poor performance this season. The offensive line, the inexperienced receivers, the first-year offensive coordinator -- it's not an easy situation to play elite football in. Stroud, though, isn't some rookie just finding his footing in the NFL. He's a third-year player who had one of the best statistical rookie seasons of all time. The bar for him is different than it is for other quarterbacks on this list.
So when he's regressing instead of progressing, that's concerning. When Davis Mills can come in and the offense doesn't look too dissimilar over the past game and a half, that's concerning. It's not that he can't put up elite numbers once again when the talent around him improves, but rather that he's not shown any signs of growth to say he'll ever overcome a mediocre supporting cast.
Michael Penix Jr.: D
The exciting downfield passer we saw last season and at Washington has been nowhere to be found this fall. In fact, Penix has as many deep completions this entire season (seven) as he did in three starts as a rookie. That seems wholly incompatible with the player most expected Penix to be.
What scares me the most about Penix's performance so far is how reliant on in-rhythm throws he's been. If the ball isn't out when Penix hits his back foot, more often than not his accuracy is going to suffer. And on top of that, he's shown almost no ability to create outside the pocket -- either as a runner or passer. He's only managed 83 passing yards and 68 rushing yards on the 43 times he's broken the pocket this season. For someone who has to win from the pocket, Penix needs to be more precise than he's been this season.
J.J. McCarthy: F
McCarthy has more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes (five), has the lowest completion percentage in the entire NFL through four starts (53.7%), and his sack pace extrapolated to 17 games would be the sixth most all time. It is important to reiterate, though, that it's only four starts, and the first four of his career at that. If you're looking for encouraging signs, you'll find a couple of throws a game, but not any extended stretch of play to warrant a grade higher than this.
Bryce Young: F
Young is on pace for the sixth-lowest 16-game passing yardage total since the reemphasis on illegal contact in 2004 caused passing numbers to soar leaguewide. He's 30th in EPA/play despite having one of the league's best rushing attacks and a legit No. 1 receiver in Tetairoa McMillan. The flashes we saw at the end of last season are nowhere to be found. Carolina will more than likely have a different starting quarterback Week 1 of 2026.
Tyler Shough: Incomplete (small sample)
I went with an incomplete given we've only seen two career starts from Shough at this point. If you're a Saints fan, though, you feel a lot better about him now than you did two weeks ago. He's handled pressure exceedingly well for a rookie and not had any boneheaded plays on 92 dropbacks. We'll check back in later this season for a more thorough assessment.
These 6 Tyler Shough highlights came on 3rd down with 3 backup OL and no Rashid Shaheed. He can definitely throw the ball well and at least has average athleticism. pic.twitter.com/mrAdnenkw6
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) November 10, 2025
Jayden Daniels: Incomplete (injury)
Injuries were always the biggest worry for Daniels coming out given his string-bean frame and healthy risk tolerance taking hits in the open field. Now he's already suffered four separate injuries that have caused him to miss time in one and a half seasons for the Commanders. The elbow dislocation suffered in Week 9 is the most serious of the bunch, as the timetable for his return is still unknown.
