Since the start of the season, we've been projecting the full NFL playoff field every week, and after four weeks of action, things are suddenly starting to get a little clearer around the NFL. For instance, we can probably all agree that the Chargers won't be in the playoffs.
With the NFL season nearly 25% complete, we're starting to get a sense of who the contenders are and who the pretenders are. To figure out who the true playoff contenders might be, we had our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season.
There are 208 games left on the regular-season schedule, along with 13 playoff games, and Oh simulated ALL of them. Not only did he project the 14 teams that will end up making the playoffs, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings.
Projected AFC playoff field
Before the season started, Pete Prisco predicted that the Jaguars would win the Super Bowl and I'm not sure if he somehow hacked our projection, but right now, the Jags are looking like they're going to finish near the top of the AFC.
Here's the projected AFC playoff field:
1. Chiefs (4-0) -- AFC West champion
2. Jaguars (3-1) -- AFC South champion
3. Bills (3-1) -- AFC East champion
4. Ravens (3-1) -- AFC North champion
5. Colts (2-2)
6. Broncos (2-2)
7. Patriots (2-2)
The computer has the top six teams comfortably getting into the playoffs, but there was a big battle for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. In our projection, the Patriots ended up edging out the Bengals on a tiebreaker to earn the last spot. If that actually happens, Zac Taylor's job security will become a hot topic going into the offseason.
Now, let's talk about a few of the teams that didn't make the postseason in our projection. There are two surprise teams in the AFC: the Raiders (3-1) and Browns (3-1). Although they've both played well over three weeks, the computer doesn't project either team making the postseason. The biggest problem for the Raiders is that they have an absolutely brutal schedule coming up with four of their next five games coming against the Patriots, Bills, Rams and 49ers. As for the Browns, our projection has them getting to eight wins, which would be good for Cleveland, but not good enough to make the playoffs.
Projected NFC playoff field
The Atlanta Falcons have officially arrived on the scene. After watching the Falcons win two straight games in blowout fashion, our computer has been so impressed that Atlanta is now projected to win the NFC South.
Here's the projected NFC playoff field:
1. Seahawks (3-1) -- NFC West champion
2. Vikings (4-0) -- NFC North champion
3. Eagles (2-2) -- NFC East champion
4. Falcons (2-2) -- NFC South champion
5. 49ers (4-0)
6. Rams (2-2)
7. Bears (3-1)
The Seahawks and Eagles are both projected to win their divisions, even though neither is currently in first place. The computer doesn't see the Giants being a factor in the NFC East, which will end up being a battle between the Cowboys and Eagles. In the NFC West, the Seahawks and 49ers are actually playing THIS WEEK and that game will likely have a major impact when it comes to who wins the division. The computer loves the NFC West and currently has three teams from that division making the playoffs.
Now that we know who's in the playoffs, let's see who's going to make it to Super Bowl LXI.
Wild card round
AFC
- (2) Jaguars 27-20 over (7) Patriots. The Jaguars' playoff run ended last year with a loss to an AFC East team (Bills) in the wild-card round, but this time around, they actually get the win.
- (3) Bills 25-20 over (6) Broncos. One year after getting eliminated by the Broncos, the Bills get their shot at some postseason revenge in this game. Last year, these two teams met in Denver during the playoffs, but this year, the game is in Buffalo, and the Bills ride their home-field edge to a win.
- (4) Ravens 30-27 over (5) Colts. The most entertaining game of the wild card round goes down in Baltimore, which is kind of fitting, since this game features Baltimore's old team (the Colts) facing Baltimore's new team (the Ravens). Our projection has the Ravens winning this one in a shootout. This playoff appearance ends up being a moral victory for a Colts team that hasn't been to the postseason since 2020.
NFC
- (2) Vikings 23-21 over (7) Bears. There is only one team that has figured out how to stop Ben Johnson's offense this year, and unfortunately for the Bears, they get stuck playing that team in the opening round of the playoffs.
- (6) Rams 21-20 over (3) Eagles. These two teams just played each other in Week 4, with the Rams topping the Eagles 24-20 in Philadelphia, and if they meet in the playoffs, our computer predicts a similar outcome.
- (5) 49ers 27-23 over (4) Falcons. The Falcons are the hottest team in the NFL over the past two weeks, but that's not going to help them here. Kyle Shanahan, who served as the Falcons' offensive coordinator during Atlanta's Super Bowl season in 2016, gets some revenge on his old team by knocking them out of the postseason.
And now, we're down to our final eight teams.
Divisional round
AFC
- (1) Chiefs 26-23 over (4) Ravens. We got Lamar Jackson vs. Patrick Mahomes in the 2023 AFC title game and we're getting another playoff matchup here. Unfortunately for the Ravens, Mahomes has some serious help on offense this year in the form of Kenneth Walker and he helps carry Kansas City to a win.
- (2) Jaguars 27-23 over (3) Bills. One year after getting eliminated by the Bills in the playoffs, the Jaguars finally get their revenge. With a win here, we have the Jags heading to the AFC title game for just the second time this century, while Josh Allen ends up falling short of the Super Bowl once again.
NFC
- (1) Seahawks 23-21 over (6) Rams. This would be a dream matchup and if it happens, it would mark the third time in five weeks that these two teams would be playing each other (The Rams and Seahawks face off in Week 16 and Week 18 to end the regular season). The Seahawks are nearly unbeatable at home in the playoffs and they end up winning a thriller here.
- (2) Vikings 22-21 over (5) 49ers. After rolling through the regular season, the 49ers offense runs into a brick wall in the divisional round. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL and that unit carries them to a home win here.
If you're scoring at home, we are now down to four teams: Two teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Jaguars and Vikings), the team that won the Super Bowl last year (Seahawks), and the team that has won two of the past four Super Bowls (Chiefs).
Conference title games
AFC Championship
- (1) Chiefs 23-21 over (2) Jaguars. The Jaguars bid to get to the Super Bowl for the first time comes up short in Kansas City. Trevor Lawrence's first career playoff loss came against the Chiefs during the 2022 season and he suffers another setback here.
NFC Championship
- (1) Seahawks 24-17 over (2) Vikings. The Vikings' fairy tale run ends with a thud in Seattle. A win here would have given the Vikings their first Super Bowl trip since 1976, but Kyler Murray and the Minnesota offense get overwhelmed by a Seahawks defense that holds the Vikings to just 17 points.
Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium
- (1) Seahawks 22-21 over (1) Chiefs. It's been 30 years since we've seen an NFC team win back-to-back Super Bowls and the Seahawks finally end that drought with a win over the Chiefs. Since hiring Mike Macdonald at the start of the 2024 season, the Seahawks have had one of the best defenses in the NFL, so this would give us a fantastic coaching matchup, with Macdonald matching wits against Andy Reid. Last year, the Seahawks got to celebrate a Super Bowl win in the 49ers' stadium, and if they win it again this year, they'd get to celebrate a win in the Rams' stadium. That's how you make a statement in your division. If the Seahawks were to pull this off, we would have the making of a budding dynasty in the Pacific Northwest.
We've been doing a projection every week since the start of the season, and here's a look at what the projected Super Bowl has been each week.
- Preseason prediction: Rams over Ravens
- After Week 1: Seahawks over Ravens
- After Week 2: Seahawks over Chiefs
- After Week 3: Chiefs over Vikings
- After Week 4: Seahawks over Chiefs
Right now, the Seahawks are on top, but that could certainly change this week, especially with Seattle getting ready for a Week 5 showdown against the undefeated 49ers.
