NFL bold predictions for 2025: Best longshot bets include 60-1 Super Bowl winner, 500-1 stat leader

As the start of the NFL season draws closer, it's time to finalize your preseason futures bets and see if there are any longshots worth a small play. Back in 2018, we liked the untested Patrick Mahomes as a longshot MVP candidate at +5500, thinking that the Chiefs traded up for a player they expected to fit well in Andy Reid's system. Mahomes ran away with the award while throwing 50 touchdowns in his first step toward challenging for all-time honors at quarterback.

Even when longshots don't pay off, the ride while holding a massive lottery ticket is like none other. Those who backed the Bengals at +15000 to win the Super Bowl before the 2021 season were treated to a run to the title game, where the underdog lost a close game to the Rams. Last year, I backed Sam Darnold as a longshot MVP play at +20000, and he stayed on the fringes of the race for much of the year, though it was far different than the Bengals Super Bowl ticket, as it never really felt like he was a main player in the race.

Below, I've shared five longshot plays I like this year at +5000 or better. They include a Super Bowl winner, a surprise team to finish with the fewest wins and three players worth sprinkling for stat leader season-long props.

Super Bowl: Arizona Cardinals +6000 (Caesars)

Last year, the Cardinals hung with the Bills on the road in Week 1 and then obliterated the Rams 41-10 in Week 2 en route to a 6-4 start that had them in the mix to win the division. Alas, just like the team's strong starts in 2020 and 2021, it didn't last. Arizona finished 8-9, but three of those five late losses were tight late in games. If the Cardinals can just figure out how to finish (both in 60 minutes and over 18 weeks), they could be poised to make the leap this year.

There are paths to see that leap manifest on the roster. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey Benson are poised to improve on uneven rookie seasons on an offense with continuity up front and a quality quarterback running the show in Kyler Murray. The defense received a major injection of talent with Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson and first-round rookie Walter Nolen up front, while Josh Sweat comes from Philly to boost the pass rush. A secondary that already features star safety Budda Baker and breakout slot corner Garrett Williams added Will Johnson, a potential top of the first round talent who slid into Day 2.

The division will be tough, and navigating the NFC playoff field even tougher. But there's upside for this team to bank double-digit wins, take the NFC West crown and make some noise in January.

Fewest wins: Patriots +6500 (DraftKings)

The Patriots have received a lot of hype this year, even in futures markets where they have been treated like an average or slightly better team. That would be a remarkable leap from last year when they were poised to earn the No. 1 overall pick before a Week 18 win over a Buffalo team resting players.

There are certainly reasons for optimism. Mike Vrabel is a proven veteran coach who has time and again gotten the most out of the talent available to him, even earning a surprise No. 1 seed one year with the Titans. But this is a brand new team with brand new players and assistant coaches, and we have no idea how quickly things will come together. The market is also baking in a Year 2 leap from the talented Drake Maye, but while he shone at times last year, it didn't translate to wins on the field.

Perhaps the Patriots' issues last year can be blamed on the supporting cast around Maye. That looks better on paper, but is it really by a significant margin? The offensive line includes two unproven rookies, a center who never lived up to his draft status in Garrett Bradbury and a right tackle in Morgan Moses coming off a poor season at an age when you wouldn't expect a major bounceback. The receiver group added another draft pick with potential but whose impact is TBD and a receiver who turns 32 this year coming off an ACL tear.

If the group stays perfectly healthy, I have questions about how effective it'll be, and if anyone gets hurt, then we could be hearing the same excuses as last year when the Pats were on pace for the No. 1 pick with one week to go. That makes them a nice value in the fewest wins market for me, as I think the worst-case scenario for this team is more in play than the odds suggest.

Most rushing TDs: Trey Benson +50000 (BetMGM)

When looking for a longshot at this level, all you need to do is picture a scenario where it's possible without 17 different things falling perfectly into place like a Rube Goldberg machine. I look at the way the Cardinals' backfield is trending and think this one has a shot.

James Conner has suggested himself that Benson is in line for a bigger role this year, and it makes a lot of sense after the 30-year-old back had 283 touches last season. He had eight of the 12 rushing TDs by running backs for the Cardinals, but I could see the team saving him from the wear and tear of goal line work and giving that role more to the young back in Benson even if Conner still leads the backfield for the entire year. If Conner suffers an injury or starts to lose some effectiveness, Benson suddenly becomes live for this prop as the team's lead back.

The Cardinals had one of the most effective run games in the league last year, and as we mentioned above, their numerous defensive additions could have that side of the ball make a major leap. That could leave the Cardinals offense leaning on the run even more late in close games and give Benson a shot at double-digit TDs.

Most passing yards: Bryce Young +10000 (DraftKings)

Nothing in Young's statistical profile from last year suggests this one has a huge chance of happening, but it has to be better than 1% for a guy we fully expect to be the starter for his team all year after a much-improved second half following an early-year benching. The Carolina defense might not be much better than it was last year when it was the worst defensive unit in the league, and that could give Young plenty of opportunity to rack up garbage-time yardage.

Young averaged 210.4 yards per game after regaining the starting role, and that number has to jump a significant margin for him to have a shot, hence why his odds are so long. But the path to that happening started in April when the Panthers finally found a No. 1 receiver in Tetairoa McMillan with the No. 8 overall pick. With a legit primary receiver, the Panthers have a better shot at extending drives (last in plays per drive in 2024) and packing yardage onto Young's total that wasn't possible last year with an offense full of WR3 types.

If 2024 rookies Xavier Legette, Jalen Coker and Ja'Tavion Sanders can take a step forward in their second year in the offense, all of a sudden Carolina could find itself going blow for blow in some shootouts as Young starts seeing his per-game yardage numbers shoot up. The schedule projects as one of the easiest for Young in Fantasy, and it's possible that translates to the betting market with this longshot prop.

Most receiving TDs: Rome Odunze +10000 (DraftKings)

Ben Johnson takes over the Bears coming off running the highest-scoring offense in the NFL last year, finishing top four in passing touchdowns for the second straight season. If things click with Caleb Williams, there will be plenty of scoring potential for the offense, but it's anyone's guess how the targets shake out.

My money would be on Odunze to be the primary weapon in the red zone considering his size and fantastic ball skills. Keenan Allen led the team in receiving TDs last year, while two talented rookies join the fold this year in Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. The latter could certainly have his say in the red zone as well, so if Odunze is really going to make a run in this category, he has to emerge as the team's clear No. 1 receiver.

Odunze has impressed with his work learning the different positions of the offense this summer. It's possible he can be an elite chess piece that Johnson can move around the formation on a week-to-week basis to attack the weaker parts of the opponent's passing defense, knowing they can only pay so much attention with DJ Moore and the rest of the team's weapons also vying for attention. Should that happen, it's entirely possible we see Odunze live up to the potential that had some draft experts put him right alongside Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers last year.