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Just when it appeared Bills quarterback Josh Allen had very little chance of winning back-to-back MVPs, he reminded football observers of why he won it last year. In a must-win game for the struggling Bills, Allen accounted for 357 yards of total offense and six total touchdowns in a wild 44-32 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In doing so, Allen reemerged in the 2025 NFL MVP race with odds of around +475 at most outlets after falling to the +700 range a week ago. In this space last week, we mentioned Allen as a potential value based on the possibility that the Bills would need him to deliver performances like the one he just crafted in order to give his team a chance to retain its supremacy in the AFC East. Conversely, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, the one-time heavy MVP favorite, dropped to +2000 following a 19-16 loss to the Denver Broncos in which he was mostly outplayed by his counterpart Bo Nix.

Meanwhile, Allen's divisional rival, Patriots second-year sensation Drake Maye (+200), did little to hurt his MVP momentum behind a 281-yard, one-TD performance in a 27-13 win over the New York Jets in a Thursday night primetime showdown.

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However, current MVP favorite Matthew Stafford (+140) saw his odds shrink despite a modest 140-yard, two-touchdown performance in a 21-19 win over the Seattle Seahawks. We wonder how the odds for the veteran Rams QB would have been impacted had the Seahawks made their 64-yard field goal attempt at the horn and sneaked out of Los Angeles with control of the NFC West. 

Is the MVP award Stafford's to lose?  

Still, his current price tells us the market believes the 2025 MVP award is Stafford's to lose. But we believe there's a decent chance the 37-year-old could do just that. The Rams and Seahawks play again in Week 16 in Seattle, with the possibility of the NFC West title at stake. It's not difficult to envision Stafford putting up similar numbers but also having a turnover or two in a revenge victory for Seattle. In this case, Stafford's MVP hopes would be crippled.

This is because Allen and Maye square off in Week 15, with a strong possibility of the AFC East crown on the line. We believe the winning quarterback in this game should be well positioned to emerge as the MVP frontrunner should Stafford falter against the Seahawks the following week. With this in mind, we believe Allen (+475) holds the combination of best value for his current price along with the most realistic path. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year update

Behind a splashy start in which he hauled in five touchdowns in his first five NFL games, Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka took the early lead in the 2025 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds and remains the slight favorite with odds of around -130.

We're fading him at this price. Egbuka has seen five or fewer targets in four of his past five contests and has just one TD in that span. What's more, target competition is likely to increase amid the pending return of veteran WR Chris Godwin and the possible late-season return of Mike Evans. Although the Ohio State product is an unquestionably great talent, he'd need more glossy box scores down the stretch in order to keep a grip on this award.

Giants QB Jaxson Dart (+200), the one-time favorite, lost some momentum with his injury-related absence against the Packers last week, and the injury-related losses of top WR Malik Nabers and RB Cam Skattebo didn't help his chances. Even so, Dart's grit and resilience have given the Giants fan base hope and, should he continue to produce down the stretch with favorable matchups against the likes of the Raiders and Commanders, Dart could emerge as an appealing default choice amid the tightly bunched candidates.

However, Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan could be poised to play spoiler. It's worth noting that his OROY odds dropped from around +600 earlier this week to +400 in most markets. The Arizona product is coming off the breakout performance of his rookie campaign, catching eight passes for 130 yard and two touchdowns in a 30-27 victory over the Falcons.

McMillan now has more receiving yards (748) than Egbuka (717), though his four touchdowns are two fewer than Egbuka. To this point, McMillan has suffered from Carolina's low profile as a franchise and mostly poor quarterback play from Bryce Young. Although the latter factor remains a major concern, McMillan has a chance to make a statement on a national stage with the impending Monday night game looming against a vulnerable 49ers defense. Should he again eclipse 100 receiving yards and find the end zone, we wouldn't be surprised to see him become the OROY favorite.