Matthew Stafford is making a serious MVP push, and Sunday night against the Buccaneers could elevate it
The Rams QB is on a tear entering a matchup against a Tampa Bay pass defense that has been highly exploitable
By
Jared Dubin
•
3 min read
Heading into Week 12, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is an inner-circle NFL MVP candidate. He's either the favorite or second favorite at basically every sportsbook in Vegas, and rightfully so.
Stafford has completed 66% of his passes at an average of 7.6 yards per attempt, with a league-leading 27 touchdowns against just two interceptions. He has a career-high 112.7 passer rating and 68.7 QBR, and he checks in fifth in Tru Media's version of EPA per dropback and second in passing success rate.
He recently became the first quarterback in history to throw for four-plus touchdowns and no interceptions in three consecutive games. He hasn't been picked off at all since Week 3, and he's thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game since then.
His mind-meld connection with Puka Nacua (73 receptions for 850 yards in nine games) is alive and well, and every time he throws to Davante Adams (43 receptions for 569 yards and 10 touchdowns), it seemingly ends with Adams standing in the end zone, arms spread wide and celebrating a score.
This weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford has a chance to strengthen his case even further.
First of all, it's a game against another NFC playoff team, just like the one the Rams won last week against the Seattle Seahawks. And that's going to keep a bunch of eyes on it -- especially because the game is happening on "Sunday Night Football."
More importantly, the Bucs have a pass-funnel defense that is far better against the run than it is against the pass, which typically pushes opponents into pass-happy game plans. The Bucs are second in opponents' rushing success rate, via Tru Media, and only 20th in passing success rate.
They're fresh off allowing Josh Allen to throw for 317 yards and three touchdowns last week, and Drake Maye to go for 270 yards and two scores the week before. They forced a trio of interceptions in those two games, but Stafford just hasn't really put the ball in danger all year. He's second in turnover-worthy throw rate (interceptions plus dropped interceptions, divided by pass attempts) per Tru Media, with just four such throws all season.
The Bucs are likely to be overmatched in the secondary, especially with cornerback Jamel Dean unable to suit up due to injury, and Stafford gets rid of the ball too quickly (his average time to throw is 2.66 seconds, fifth-fastest among 34 qualified quarterbacks) for the pass rush to get home and affect his rhythm. Tampa will also be without Haason Reddick, who has been out since Week 7.
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Jared Dubin
Nacua and Adams should have advantageous matchups on the perimeter and in the slot, even if guys like Jacob Parrish and Benjamin Morrison have acquitted themselves fairly well for rookies so far this year. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tykee Smith will be able to provide help, of course, but nobody has really proven they can stop the Nacua-Adams duo so far this year. It's probably not going to be this Bucs unit that has routinely allowed inferior pass offenses to put up big games.
The Rams will also get into heavy personnel and force the Bucs to decide whether to match with base defense and provide good matchups in the passing game, or stay in nickel personnel and allow Los Angeles to run the ball into lighter boxes with extra blockers. If they match with base defense, the tight ends could get going; if they don't, Kyren Williams and Blake Corum could start getting downhill and set up the play-action pass, which the Rams run more than almost anybody in the league.
By the time the weekend is over, Stafford could be the odds-on favorite everywhere to take home the MVP trophy. The matchup is in his favor, and the way he's playing, he'd likely be able to put up that type of game even if it wasn't.
