Mahomes-Allen Part X will expose fatal flaws for both contenders ahead of NFL's trade deadline

The 10th chapter of the Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen rivalry comes at a perfect time on Sunday, just two days before the NFL's trade deadline (4 ET on Tuesday). 

I'm looking forward to another memorable game in a rivalry separated by just one point (Chiefs 243, Bills 242) as both teams try to improve their playoff positioning. I also think it's going to be a really important barometer for each contender as they assess their needs ahead of Tuesday's deadline. There's nothing like facing Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen that will expose your team's weaknesses.

I already expect both teams to be busy at the deadline as they have been in recent years. The Bills acquired WR Amari Cooper and CB Rasul Douglas in the last two years while the Chiefs have made a habit of trading for wide receivers. 

Trade deadline additions in previous four seasons

Both teams already have motivation to get active on Tuesday. The Chiefs have gotten hot lately but they are still 5-3, good for the seventh seed in the AFC. The Bills are fifth in the AFC with a 5-2 record and aren't too far removed from losing back-to-back games to the Patriots and Falcons.

Bills still don't have a closer on defense

This is the Bills last chance of the season to improve their roster if they are ever going to get over the hump. The obvious need is on defense. The Chiefs are a perfect 4-0 vs. the Bills in the playoffs, averaging 34.8 points per game. Mahomes hasn't thrown a single interception in those games and Buffalo has never been able to make a critical stop. 

Chiefs in first nine Mahomes-Allen meetings

The Chiefs have had six drives with a chance to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime vs. Buffalo in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes. Guess how many times they successfully tied the game or took the lead? Yes, all six times. They are six for six when they need to score in late, close situations vs. the Bills in the postseason.

The Bills have tried to follow the Eagles blueprint to beating Mahomes by beefing up their front four. They signed Joey Bosa in free agency this offseason, extended edge rusher Gregory Rousseau and used their first five draft picks on defense, including three along the defensive line (T.J. Sanders, Landon Jackson, Deone Walker).

Injuries and the underwhelming rookies have left Buffalo depleted along the defensive line. Four of the Bills top four defensive tackles will likely miss this game between Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, T.J. Sanders and DeWayne Carter. Rookie third-round pick edge rusher Landon Jackson has also made a minimal impact this year.

They'll absolutely get exposed by Patrick Mahomes on Sunday. He's having one of the best seasons outside the pocket by any quarterback, ever:

He leads the NFL in both passing and rushing first downs outside the pocket this year. His total first downs outside the pocket blow away the rest of the league, as you can see with this chart below. 

The Bills defensive line couldn't do anything in the second half of their loss vs. the Patriots to stop Drake Maye from making off-schedule plays (especially on critical third downs) so I expect the same will be true on Sunday. Plus, it'll be true again in the playoffs unless the Bills do something to bolster their pass rush.

They don't have a closer, and they need one. They are 29th in pressure rate in the fourth quarter in the last two seasons with a lead between zero and eight points. They have only have one player with a 10-sack season under Sean McDermott (since 2017), which was Leonard Floyd in 2023. It's tied for the fewest individual 10-sack seasons in the league in that span (Colts). 

Edge rushers they could go after at the trade deadline include, Jermaine Johnson, Trey Hendrickson, Carl Granderson, Bradley Chubb or Jaelan Phillips. 

Chiefs need some punch in the backfield

The Bills clearly need some depth at defensive tackle after Ed Oliver's injury. They are already allowing 5.5 yards per rush this season, second worst in the league (only the Giants are worse). 

The Chiefs will have an opportunity to expose the Bills weakness there, too. If they can't, what will it say about their own needs? They haven't gotten much from the running back position this year and now Isiah Pacheco is out with a sprained MCL. That leaves Kareem Hunt, Brashard Smith and Elijah Mitchell (who could make his Chiefs debut) to carry the load. Hunt has been great in short-yardage situations this year (14 of 16 converting on third or fourth and one) but underwhelming otherwise. 

Overall, Chiefs running backs are 27th in both scrimmage yards per game and yards per touch this season as their production has been trending down in recent years. 

Chiefs RB ranks in last four seasons

The offense is finally getting hot with a healthy array of weapons for Patrick Mahomes so there's not a desperate need here, but wouldn't Alvin Kamara be a great fit? Jerick McKinnon had 512 receiving yards and nine touchdown catches with the Chiefs in 2022, so imagine what the Chiefs could do with Kamara's skillset. Breece Hall and Jerome Ford are among other popular names at the position who could be traded. 

The Bills lack a WR1

Defense is still the priority in Buffalo. They can't get critical stops vs. Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Josh Allen and the Bills have done enough on offense to win playoff games. Buffalo averages 28.3 points per game and Allen has 11 touchdowns and one turnover in four playoff losses to the Chiefs. He has three playoff losses with 250+ total yards, two touchdowns and zero turnovers vs. the Chiefs. All other quarterbacks have four such losses with such a stat line in the last five postseasons. 

Still, there's an obvious need for the Bills at wide receiver and this will help them chase down the Patriots in the AFC East and make some noise in the postseason. 

The Bills are missing a WR1. They don't have a game changer at the position right now. Josh Allen has the shortest average pass length targeting wide receivers in the entire NFL this year (9.1 yards downfield). That's been trending down for years.

Josh Allen average pass length targeting wide receivers

Khalil Shakir has been a chain mover but Keon Coleman has actually taken a step back from his rookie year, instead of the leap Buffalo needed. He exploded for 95 receiving yards in the fourth quarter of Week 1 in the Bills comeback vs. the Ravens. He has 172 receiving yards the rest of the year. He's averaging 9.9 yards per reception this year after it was 19.2 last season, the largest year-over-year decrease (-9.3) by any player in the last quarter century (min. 35 targets each year). 

Keon Coleman career

The lack of a go-to-guy has really been exposed when he's under pressure, too. He's 31st in EPA per dropback when targeting wide receivers under pressure this year, thanks in part to four interceptions in those spots. He hasn't posted the usual sparkling stats when pressured in 2025. 

He needs an outlet who can get separation in critical spots in the game when pressured, or someone who can change the game with one play. Right now, he doesn't have either. With Steve Spagnuolo dialing up blitzes this flaw should be exposed more on Sunday. 

The Bills tried to address this problem last year by trading for Amari Cooper and he didn't help. This year their options on the wide receiver market include Chris Olave, Jakobi Meyers and Calvin Ridley. 

Chiefs defensive line depth

The Chiefs have the top scoring defense in the NFL in the last three seasons and have once again been solid on that side of the ball. Their Achilles heel is along the defensive line though as Chris Jones hasn't played at an All-Pro level this year. Kansas City has actually had to bring back not one, but two defensive tackles that departed the team this offseason. They traded for Derrick Nnadi before the season started and just signed Mike Pennel, too. 

There's a reason for that! They are 18th in success rate defending the run this season. They need all the help they can get there considering a Super Bowl path could go through names like Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook.

Cook is going to do exactly that on Sunday. The Bills are second in rush success rate this year and Cook is coming off  a game with 216 rush yards despite sitting the entire fourth quarter. He's the fifth back all-time with 750+ rush yards on at least 6.0 yards per rush through seven games (Derrick Henry, Chris Johnson, Jim Brown, Jim Taylor). 

We'll see if Cook motivates the Chiefs to add even more muscle on the defensive front after Sunday. 

No matter the result on Sunday, it's the Bills who have the most work to do at the deadline as we know Mahomes can flip the switch against them in the playoffs and they still haven't done enough to address needs at edge rusher and wide receiver.