How to bet on the Chiefs: Super Bowl odds, win total, props, best bets, picks for Kansas City in 2025

The list of teams to make five Super Bowls in six years starts and ends with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Super Bowl LIX may have been the most demoralizing defeat in Patrick Mahomes' tenure. The Eagles delivered six unanswered scores to start the game, leaving the Chiefs down 34-0 near the end of the third quarter with no answers for Philadelphia's excellent pass rush. The Chiefs got 11 yards on their first play from scrimmage and no other first downs over the rest of the first half, gaining a total of two yards in the process. It was, in short, a shellacking.

Where do the Chiefs go from here? The major sportsbooks have set the Chiefs' odds to win the Super Bowl behind not only the team that embarrassed them in last year's championship but also two teams they have dominated in the AFC playoffs for years, the Ravens and Bills. That amounts to essentially a vote of no confidence from the betting markets, considering how hard to beat Kansas City has been postseason after postseason.

The biggest position of need was made clear in the loss to the Eagles, and the Chiefs threw a two-year, $30 million deal at Jaylon Moore and used their first-round pick on Ohio State's Josh Simmons in the hopes that one will finally solidify the left tackle slot that has made Mahomes too vulnerable to pressure in recent years. But the offensive line will also have to overcome the loss of one of the best guards in the league over the last decade, as Joe Thuney was dealt this offseason. The new left side of the offensive line will go a long way to determining whether the 2025 Chiefs are a championship contender or a ticking time bomb hoping to avoid a relentless pass rush once again.

We're going to take a quick look at the Chiefs' 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we'll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Chiefs in 2025 and give out our best bets.

2024 Kansas City Chiefs season review

• Regular season: 15-2 (AFC West champions)
• Playoffs: L, Super Bowl vs. Eagles 40-22
• Franchise-record 15 wins (lost 40-22 vs Eagles in Super Bowl LIX)
• Seven straight conference championship appearances (second-longest streak all-time, 2011-18 Patriots)
• First team ever to reach five Super Bowls in six-season span
• Fourth team to make three straight Super Bowls (1971-73 Dolphins, 1990-93 Bills, 2016-18 Patriots)
• 11-0 in one-score games (tied most wins all-time, 2022 Vikings) 

2025 Kansas City Chiefs offseason review

Five-year futures odds and trends

Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.

2025 Kansas City Chiefs futures odds

Odds subject to change.

2025 Patrick Mahomes props

Odds subject to change.

Reasons to back the Chiefs

The Chiefs have been to the Super Bowl five times in Mahomes' seven seasons as a full-time starter. They have not lost the AFC West division in that span, and are going for a 10th straight division crown this year. They have never been eliminated in their first playoff game under Mahomes. This is basically a reincarnation of the Patriots dynasty under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady but in Kansas City. Yes, the Chiefs did look mortal at times last season but still found ways to win. Mahomes is only a few seasons removed from throwing for over 5,000 yards, and there's reason to believe Kansas City gets back to that level of passing volume with its superstar quarterback. The defense ranked ninth in yards allowed per game and fourth in points allowed per game, so that side of the ball should continue to be stellar. Continuity is key here, as the Chiefs bring back largely the same roster which went to the Super Bowl.

Reasons to fade the Chiefs

Going 11-0 in games decided by one possession is not a recipe for consistent success no matter who your quarterback is. Eventually, the Chiefs are going to be on the wrong side of some of these games. Mahomes and Travis Kelce appear to lose a step a year ago, so there's a chance that regression continues in 2025. The AFC West is no joke with the Chargers and Broncos making the playoffs a year ago, and the Raiders turning to Pete Carroll to right the ship. Six of Kansas City's first nine opponents made the playoffs a year ago but thankfully for the Chiefs, only one of those games is on the road.

How to bet the Chiefs in 2025

• Under 11.5 wins -120 (BetMGM)
• Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 TDs -110 (DraftKings)

My initial play on the Chiefs was to hammer the division title as a price we typically haven't been given during this incredible run of nine straight AFC West titles. But after digging into the other teams in the division, I'm not sure even -115 is enough value to back Kansas City. The key is to throw last year's record, which was built off the back of going undefeated in 11 one-score games, out the window and just consider what this team has been the last two years, which has been very good but not necessarily elite during the regular season despite having one of the best defenses in football. The upside is always there for the Chiefs to run the table with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, but I think it's more likely this team tops out at 10-11 wins and saves itself for the playoffs.

I do think we're getting good value on Mahomes to throw at least 28 touchdowns this year after he managed 26 last year and 27 the year prior while sitting out the final game each season. I'm not sure the Chiefs will be afforded that luxury this season with how competitive I expect the division will be, so we could already be getting one extra game to get this over the total. Mahomes will also have a better group of receivers in place than he has the last two years, with Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown healthy and Xavier Worthy emerging as a more consistent option in the second half and the playoffs, as he averaged 27.3 yards per game through Week 10 and didn't have a game under 40 yards (throwing out the brief Week 18 appearance) the rest of the way. If the defense takes any sort of step back from their elite status of the last two years, that also puts more pressure on Mahomes to throw more in the second half and gives him a much better chance of returning to the touchdown rates he had in his first five seasons as a starter.