How long can Vikings wait for J.J. McCarthy to develop? This was their grand plan, but it's off to bumpy start

EAGAN, Minn. -- The transition was supposed to be seamless. The Minnesota Vikings didn't necessarily say that. But they also kind of did. Whether it was talking up the seemingly quarterback-proof supporting cast around new starter J.J. McCarthy, or repeatedly turning away from more proven options at the position, the NFC North contender declared with both word and deed that the 2025 NFL season was about winning here and now.

Except, two games into McCarthy's first campaign as "the guy," the Vikings feel less like an established contender and more like an organization at the start of a rebuild. Two games is a small sample size. It's also 11% of an NFL regular season. And samples don't get much more dispiriting than what occurred Sunday night, when McCarthy was supposed to greet the hordes of purple-coated fans at U.S. Bank Stadium with a sturdy home debut.

Six points. No touchdowns. A deflating 16-point loss to the Atlanta Falcons, whose own handpicked quarterback from the 2024 draft, Michael Penix Jr., drew plenty of praise from NBC Sports' Cris Collinsworth on the "Sunday Night Football" broadcast. Collinsworth may not be the end-all, be-all of quarterback evaluations, but it was noteworthy the typically giddy analyst had much sharper critiques of McCarthy, wondering aloud by the end of the prime-time Vikings dud how much longer star wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be able to contain his frustrations.

Because the Vikings insisted over the summer and throughout the preseason, when McCarthy's composure and mobility overshadowed his uneven production, that the Michigan product didn't need to be Superman. McCarthy echoed the sentiment, telling CBS Sports before his NFL debut he felt no pressure to play "hero ball" as the face of a "stacked" lineup. Yet heroics aren't even the concern here. Through two games, the biggest question is how long it'll take McCarthy to even be generally competent. And how long the rest of the Vikings can afford to wait.

After missing his entire rookie season due to a knee injury, McCarthy is now also set to sit out Week 3 with an ankle sprain suffered in Sunday's lowly defeat, putting new backup Carson Wentz in the spotlight against the Cincinnati Bengals. ESPN is reporting the former first-rounder could be sidelined two to four weeks. It's just another speed bump for the guy tabbed to be the story of the 2025 Vikings.

J.J. McCarthy's first two NFL starts

Note: NFL rank among qualified passers. Stats courtesy of NFL Pro.

Again, let's be clear: Two games does not make or break a quarterback. These were McCarthy's first two starts at the NFL level. This year's No. 1 overall draft pick, Cameron Ward, had similarly inefficient marks in Week 1. Plenty of star gunslingers have gotten off to ugly starts. And McCarthy wasn't working with a fully healthy cast of characters Sunday, with two starting linemen in Christian Darrisaw and Ryan Kelly out of the lineup, as well as fill-in left tackle Justin Skule, by the end of the night. We're also just a week removed from McCarthy producing a stellar close to his first start, spearheading a fourth-quarter comeback against the Chicago Bears.

For basically seven of the eight quarters he's played in 2025, however, McCarthy has produced some of the worst marks of any starting quarterback. There's no getting around that. It's not entirely for a lack of physical talent and mental poise. McCarthy can move, as he displayed so clearly in a defining touchdown run against the Bears. He doesn't hang his head after absorbing a barrage of sacks, as he did against the Falcons. But what he's very clearly struggled to do is establish any kind of rhythm, especially while targeting Jefferson. The latter is one of the NFL's most gifted and effortless playmakers, and yet he's had to work hard to corral passes from his new quarterback.

That can be partly attributed to a heavy focus on the run game in Week 1, when coach Kevin O'Connell wisely leaned upon new bruiser Jordan Mason to set up McCarthy's play-action work. But even with Atlanta missing top cornerback A.J. Terrell at the end of Sunday night's Week 2 contest, McCarthy struggled to connect with Jefferson, who's secured just seven of 13 targets through two games, finishing with 44 yards against the Falcons. Accuracy and passing velocity are culprits, just as they were on McCarthy's three picks across his first two starts.

The biggest reason for concern is not necessarily that the bumpy start portends a total failure of a career for McCarthy. It's that the Vikings anticipated otherwise. Their entire 2025 offseason was centered around the decision to say thanks but no thanks to a bevy of alternatives at quarterback. In short order, they:

• Refused to enter a bidding war for Sam Darnold, who threw 35 touchdowns and posted top five marks in passing yards and quarterback rating under O'Connell in 2024;
• Refused to enter a bidding war for Daniel Jones, who finished 2024 on the practice squad behind Darnold and is now off to a career-best start as the Indianapolis Colts' starter;
• Barely entertained overtures from Aaron Rodgers, who by many accounts preferred to join the Vikings for his final NFL season as opposed to the Pittsburgh Steelers;
• Waited until the last minute to swap out a struggling Sam Howell as the new backup quarterback, only signing journeyman Wentz at the close of the preseason.

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Jeff Kerr

Not one of those decisions was entirely head-scratching on its own. But as a whole, they paint a clear picture: The Vikings were, above almost anything else, committed to making 2025 all about McCarthy -- making him comfortable, ensuring he went unchallenged as the present and future starter, getting the ball rolling on his opportunity to justify the club's move up to draft him 10th overall in 2024. And the roster construction by general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, with heavy resources poured into the offensive and defensive lines, and proven stars like Jefferson at the skill spots, was designed to avoid a drop-off from the 14-win Darnold explosion of 2024.

All of it hinged on McCarthy being ready to command a playoff contender. No one doubted his readiness above the neck. Many, like captain Josh Metellus, pointed to the pro mindset McCarthy learned from a young age under former Michigan and current Los Angeles Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh. On the field, as a live NFL quarterback, the mindset has yet to translate to stability. Yes, the moxie shined bright in the final moments of Week 1, when McCarthy put his arm and legs to work to seal a Bears collapse. But after two full weeks and 120 minutes of J.J. running the Vikings offense, that glimmer registers as the anomaly for a still-developing youngster. And now he's banged up (again) on top of it.

Again, early-career hiccups are absolutely not a problem ... if the Vikings are intent on playing this slowly, affording their new point guard the patience he might very well require. That's a fine approach to take, and it's one plenty of rebuilding teams have exercised, declining to put the weight of the NFL world on a first-time starter's shoulders. It's just not the approach O'Connell and Co. seemed to take by suggesting they could transition from proven arms like Darnold and, previously, Kirk Cousins and still end up in the thick of the NFC postseason conversation.

At this very moment, with McCarthy at the controls, the Vikings will be fortunate to sniff the wild card picture. O'Connell could do his young quarterback a favor by tightening up red zone calls or getting the offensive front back to full health. Jordan Addison's forthcoming return from suspension might be an X factor, given the wideout's undeniable chemistry with McCarthy over the summer. But at some point the quarterback also has to steady himself, to put the ball where it needs to go before the closing seconds of a half or fourth quarter. He certainly has to put his team in the end zone on a night the opposition settles for five field goals and still gets a blowout win. That is, unless Wentz does it in his place and starts an entirely different conversation.

If there's one overarching thing that could help Minnesota weather McCarthy's non-linear growth, it's the culture already established. O'Connell is beloved for his upbeat and optimistic leadership; he's been the glue of the locker room since his arrival. And Jefferson, the most recognized talent on the team, has been remarkably patient with his quarterbacks, such as when O'Connell had to cycle through emergency backups like Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens following Cousins' injury in 2023. Few bona fide No. 1 pass catchers extend such easy grace. It's only natural, though, as Collinsworth did Sunday, to wonder how long such grace can be extended; this is Year 6 for Jefferson, and the club approached a No. 1 playoff seed a year ago, so if McCarthy's peaks don't outweigh his valleys by the time the calendar flips to October, November, December, well, the onus will really be on O'Connell to keep his men aligned.

So is it time to hit the panic button on J.J. McCarthy as the long-term face of the Vikings? Probably not. It is, however, time to start considering he's not the guy to take the Vikings right back to the playoffs in 2025. There's plenty of time for that story to be rewritten. But already the clock is ticking.