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The wheels of the NFL continue to roll and are barreling towards Week 2. The upcoming slate has plenty of juicy matchups to sink our teeth into and, for our conversation here, to bet on. Unlike the Week 1 player prop market, we now have a small sample to base some of our analysis on, and that'll only grow throughout the season. While minuscule, there are matchups we can now look to exploit before the oddsmakers tank the price. 

After sifting through the player prop market, I've identified a handful of wagers that have raised my eyebrows. Most surround running backs with either favorable matchups or an evolving role, while we also go back to the well with a player we bet on last week, albeit in a different capacity. 

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Without further ado, let's get to it!

Brenton Strange: Over 31.5 receiving yards

Last week, we bet on Strange to get into the end zone and were unsuccessful. However, it wasn't due to the tight end not being involved. Strange hauled in all four of his targets for a team-high 59 yards in the win over Carolina. Fast-forward to this week, and he gets another favorable matchup against a Cincinnati Bengals team that saw both Harold Fannin Jr. and David Njoku exceed this current total. In all, Cincy gave up 10 catches to tight ends on 15 targets for 100 yards (second-most in the NFL) in Week 1. 

And this isn't a one-off, either. Last year, the Bengals gave up the third-most receiving yards to tight ends, so this is too low of a number for Strange. In fact, this is a window where I'll again look to ladder his receiving yard total. Here's how I plan to play this: 

  • Over 31.5 receiving yards at -115 (1 unit)
  • 40+ receiving yards at +137 (1 unit)
  • 50+ receiving yards at +227 (0.5 units)
  • 60+ receiving yards at +362 (0.25 units)

Javonte Williams: Over 53.5 rushing yards

Williams was the clear-cut starter for the Cowboys in Week 1, finishing his Dallas debut with 15 carries against Philadelphia. No other Cowboys rusher had more than four attempts out of the backfield. Williams' 3.6 yards per attempt left little to be desired, but there's no reason to expect he won't once again handle the lion's share of carries in Week 2, especially after Miles Sanders fumbled in the opener.

Williams also has a great matchup against an already teetering Giants run defense. Last week, New York let running backs amass 133 yards on the ground on 20 carries (6.65 yards per carry) and will now be without standout linebacker Micah McFadden, who is on injured reserve due to a foot injury. Given how poor the Giants offense looked in Week 1, this could develop into a game script that features Williams carrying even more of the load late after Dallas builds up a lead. 

Zach Charbonnet: Over 42.5 rushing yards

I think we're seeing a changing of the guard in the Seahawks backfield. For the past few years, Charbonnet has been the Robin to Kenneth Walker's Batman when the two running backs were healthy. In Week 1, we saw Walker put together a wildly inefficient showing (2.0 yards per carry), while Charbonnet largely looked like the better back and finished with more carries (12 vs. 10). Walker will continue to have a role within the Seahawks backfield, but I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if those carries continue to lean more in favor of Charbonnet. 

In his career, Charbonnet has exceeded this current rushing yards prop in nine of the 10 games he's logged double-digit carries, including last week against the Niners. On top of the added opportunity, the Steelers are coming off a Week 1 performance where they allowed 134 rushing yards to backs, which was the third-highest in the league. 

James Conner: Over 62.5 rushing yards

While I think Trey Benson is someone whom the Cardinals will feature more and more out of the backfield as the season progresses, I'm not overly concerned with him eating into Conner's chances of hitting this number. Conner still led Arizona in carries and, while he wasn't the most efficient with those touches (3.3 yards per tote), he gets about as good a matchup as you can ask for in Week 2. Conner and the Cardinals square off against the Panthers, who gave up the most rushing yards to backs last week (173). And that is after they led the league in rushing yards allowed in 2024, so that area of their defense doesn't look like it has improved much. 

I think Benson's 69-yard rushing outing (52 came on one rush) in Week 1 is helping keep this number for Conner lower, which we'll take full advantage of.  

David Montgomery: Over 10.5 carries

The Lions offense hit a speed bump right out of the gate in the post-Ben Johnson era, but I believe they're good for a bounce-back performance -- ironically against Johnson -- in Week 2. After watching Chicago struggle to move the ball offensively in the second half on Monday night, I even wonder if Detroit is set up for a blowout performance in this divisional matchup. If so, that gives me even more of an emphasis to add Montgomery recording at least 11 carries onto my card. He hit this number in Week 1. Since joining Detroit in 2023, Montgomery has registered fewer than 11 carries just seven times in 29 regular-season games.