Why the Cardinals look better with Jacoby Brissett -- and what it really means for Kyler Murray's future

Jonathan Gannon's process of making Jacoby Brissett the Cardinals' starting quarterback over Kyler Murray has fittingly been as much of a roller coaster as Murray's career with the franchise.

After Arizona's 27-17 "Monday Night Football" win over the Cowboys, Gannon reiterated that Murray was still the team's starting quarterback.

"Yeah, nothing's changed on that," he said. "That's how I feel."

On Tuesday, Gannon said Brissett will start against the Seahawks in Week 10 as Murray "will keep working on his health bucket."

"I do like what the offense is doing right now," Gannon said. "We've operated well, and we'll go from there."

When asked if Murray not starting is still fully health-related, Gannon had a simple "Yeah."

When asked why he would rule Murray out so early in the week, Gannon noted that he didn't rule Murray out. When asked why he would announce Brissett as the starter so early in the week, Gannon mentioned "the clarity it provides game planning for our team."

The saga took two more turns Tuesday night. ESPN's Adam Schefter posted that the team has consulted with multiple doctors and that the timelines for Murray's return without significant risk for re-injury have been four to eight weeks. (Sunday will mark five weeks since Murray's last game.) Then Gannon told "The Burns & Gambo Show" that Brissett would start Sunday even if Murray were healthy.

And on Wednesday afternoon, the situation shifted again: the Cardinals placed Murray on injured reserve, ruling him out for at least four more games.

All told, in less than 24 hours, Gannon made the following comments about the Cardinals' quarterback situation:

• Said Murray was still his starter
• Announced Brissett would start again Sunday
• Mentioned how he likes what the offense is doing under Brissett
• Indicated Brissett starting was due to Murray's health
• Didn't completely rule out Murray from being active
• Told a local radio show that Brissett would start even if Murray were healthy

Oh yeah, and a national reporter sprinkled in that Murray's foot injury remains a significant obstacle -- minutes after Gannon announced his quarterback decision. Now, Murray indeed will be out for at least four more games.

So where does that leave the 3-5 Cardinals as well as Brissett, Murray and Gannon? Unsurprisingly, is complicated.

Cardinals' offense looks much better under Brissett

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When Gannon brought in Drew Petzing as his offensive coordinator, there was a clear direction for how the two envisioned their offense: a strong, under-center attack that could use play action and a physical run game. Petzing had been in Cleveland from from 2020 to 2022, when the Browns had the third-highest under center rate in the NFL at nearly 50%. Prior to that, he had been in Minnesota for six seasons; the Vikings ranked sixth in under center rate at over 47% over that span. Nick Chubb and Dalvin Cook provided Cleveland and Minnesota with strong run games.

That did not mesh with anything Murray has ever done in his career. He has always played out of the shotgun, going back to his Heisman Trophy-winning days at Oklahoma and then his early time in the NFL under Kliff Kingsbury. There was an obvious mismatch. Across Murray's first four years in the NFL, under Kingsbury, he had the second-lowest under center rate in the NFL (7%), only ahead of Lamar Jackson.

Then Petzing arrived, and in 2023, Murray's under center rate skyrocketed to 25.5%. It was even higher (27.5%) last season -- still not close to the numbers Petzing posted in Cleveland and Minnesota, but much closer.

This offseason, though, the Cardinals brought in Brissett, a journeyman who has mostly served as a backup. It didn't make a ton of waves -- Murray was still the undisputed starter -- but maybe it should have. In 2022, Petzing's lone year as Browns quarterbacks coach, Brissett played well across 11 games for Cleveland in place of another supposed franchise quarterback who had previously played mostly from the shotgun: Deshaun Watson. 

The Browns' offense looked significantly better with Brissett; three seasons later, history is repeating itself in Arizona.

It's not close, frankly.

• The passing success rate is basically the same, regardless of quarterback. In fact, Murray is slightly better.
• But the overall success rate and especially the rushing success rate are vastly better with Brissett.
• The Cardinals have been a middle-of-the-pack offense with Brissett on the field; they have been somewhere between the Texans and the Titans (30th and 31st, respectively) with Murray on the field.
• The Cardinals have been a top-dozen rushing team with Brissett on the field. They have been the worst rushing team in the NFL with Murray on the field.
• Remember, the Cardinals are rushing at this rate with their third-, fourth- and fifth-string running backs in Emari Demercado, Bam Knight and Michael Carter. Neither James Conner nor Trey Benson have played a single snap during Brissett's tenure as starter.

The rushing success helps us transition to another bigger stylistic picture: The Cardinals are under center more often with Brissett. They're also using two tight ends more often, which helps the offensive line and the run game as a whole.

This is why one of Gannon's comments -- naming Brissett the starter early in the week is fueled by "the clarity it provides game planning for our team" -- is worth revisiting. The Cardinals have two completely different offenses based on who's been their quarterback. And it's been much, much more successful with Brissett.

Brissett gets foundational pieces involved

Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. are the Cardinals' two most important offensive weapons. Here's how they've fared this season.

Harrison Jr.'s numbers are actually a little bit down, but he just registered a seven-catch, 96-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Cowboys, which could be a sign of things to come.

A big reason for the offense's improvement has been Brissett's ability to attack all areas of the field, something Murray has struggled with. This season, Brissett is averaging 9.7 yards per attempt on throws outside the numbers, fourth-highest in the NFL; Murray is at 5.9, third-lowest, ahead of only Bryce Young and Dillon Gabriel.

What does this all mean for Murray?

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The short answer is that it's too early to know what happens with Murray. The Cardinals haven't even completed half of their season, and while Brissett has looked good in his three starts -- narrow losses to two of the NFL's best in the Packers and the Colts and a win over the Cowboys -- there's a long way to go. The Cardinals are only 3-5, after all, and their upcoming schedule includes the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Rams and Texans. In fact, Arizona has the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL.

Even if Brissett isn't the answer, that doesn't mean Murray is, either. This is not to say Murray is a bad player. He is an electrifying playmaker with his legs, and when he's on as a passer, he's really on. He poses problems for opposing defenses that Brissett simply does not, and he has had stretches of truly brilliant play.

Still, we haven't seen those stretches for a while. They came before he tore his ACL and, importantly, before Gannon and Petzing arrived. Murray signed his five-year, $230.5 million extension in 2022, also before Gannon, Petzing and general manager Monti Ossenfort arrived.

Again, it's much, much too early to tell what the future holds -- for Murray and everyone else involved. How long will Murray actually be out? Injured reserve means a minimum of four games, but if the Cardinals are out of the playoff picture completely, is it worth bringing him back? How will he and the team fare if/when he returns? Is Gannon on the hot seat by season's end? Is Ossenfort?

Murray's injury also adds a complicated offseason layer. Moving on from him via trade is not prohibitively expensive; according to Spotrac, his dead-cap charge in the event of a deal would be $17,918,177. 

If the Cardinals are out of the hunt and the plan is to move on from him, would they bring him back? If they're in the hunt because Brissett has played well, can they really re-appoint Murray as the starter? What if Gannon, Petzing and Ossenfort want to show they can make things work with Murray? Again, there are many aspects to consider.

It's worth noting that cutting Murray would be far more costly -- $57.75 million pre-June 1 or $50.55 million post–June 1 in 2026, either of which would be the biggest dead-money hit in NFL history.

Gannon has a 15-27 record in Arizona, and this year has come with a $100,000 fine from the team for a sideline outburst aimed at Demercado after Demercado dropped the ball before the end zone. Gannon might not be able to survive a third straight losing season. If he doesn't, Murray might not be able to survive a third head coach. Or maybe the hiring process focuses on finding a coach who believes in Murray.

Regardless, the past few days have been a wild ride regarding the Cardinals' quarterback situation, and there may be more hard questions ahead.